ATL: IRMA - Models

[psyclone]

direct hit on Tampa

OMG...I am gravely concerned about these west shifts

[psyclone]

only level A has evacuated in the bay area thus far

[bamajammer4eva]

Is it really any further west because switching between the 12z and 00z both look like its on the same general path to me

[FLpanhandle91]

Alyono, why would we ignore the 00z GFS?

[tallywx]

Is it really any further west because switching between the 12z and 00z both look like its on the same general path to me

Extremely important 20-30 mi west because it keeps the eye hugging the entire W coast of FL between Ft. Myers and Tampa (and even N of Tampa) as opposed to up the spine. Taken literally, the 12z Euro gave Tampa gusts to 80mph. This run gives Tampa gusts to 120mph.

[p1nheadlarry]

Any high resolution posts? Observing closely here in the Big Bend.

[bamajammer4eva]

so look good for east coast not getting heart of storm

I don't think anybody in Florida should want a west shift in the models due to tornadoes and all of the bad weather being on the East side. I'd guess you'd probably rather be 50 miles west of the eye than 100 miles east.

[Jag95]

Here's to hoping Cuba can disrupt her a little more than anticipated. Seems to look a little less organized on IR.

[Alyono]

Alyono, why would we ignore the 00z GFS?

eroding the ridge too quickly, again. Been a flaw for the past 15 years

[PandaCitrus]

Ocala, Gainesville, the villages over 100mph gusts in the new Euro. This is going to be a disaster. There is so much manufactured housing and crappy mobile homes all over.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/fl ... 1500z.html

[bamajammer4eva]

When this storm changes direction from North up the Peninsula to Northwest over Ga/AL as these models show is the right front quadrant still north and east??

[psyclone]

even if the core misses the east coast they're gonna take a beating. heaviest qpf is likely east of the center, there's still going to be strong onshore flow and probably a tornado threat. it's going to be rough I would think.

[EDR1222]

For what my opinion is worth, I feel like the National Hurricane Center forecasters and the pro mets on Storm 2K have done an outstanding job with their forecasts and their inputs based off the model runs. And, the models, for the most part are doing very well. The NHC and Pro Mets will be the first to tell you there are errors with the models especially beyond 3 days and even inside of 3 days, if we are talking about the Florida Peninsula......at its widest point from The Atlantic to The Gulf, I think it is only maybe 160 miles.

It will be interesting to see, if the current Euro forecast pans out, how the intensity will be affected. Seems to keep it over Cuba for a good amount of time....although it appears to be very close to the coast.

[StrongWind]

so look good for east coast not getting heart of storm

I don't think anybody in Florida should want a west shift in the models due to tornadoes and all of the bad weather being on the East side. I'd guess you'd probably rather be 50 miles west of the eye than 100 miles east.

I'd rather be 100 miles East of the eye instead of in it. Here's to the Westish models.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Ukmet

No pretty crayon work bet still V/effective. The turn will come latter today (Sat)

[hurricanehunter69]

The ridge has definitely become stronger than forecasted. A track into the eastern gulf is becoming an increasingly plausible scenario. Check out the 700-800MB steering and you can clearly see why the NHC has shifted the forecast track ( west ) for seven advisories in a row. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... zoom=&time

[bamajammer4eva]

TVCN (model consensus) is now East of NHC track. NHC track was dead on it on the 11pm advisory so would maybe expect their track to shift back to the east a bit.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[tolakram]