ATL: IRMA - Models

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Sanibel
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9861 Postby Sanibel » Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:50 pm

Our local met -who is at full alarm mode - said watch for possible Gulf entry... Said trough failed to erode ridge...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9862 Postby Blizzard96x » Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:51 pm

joey wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:will rest go east like gfs this cazy hurr to track models



Gfs east sf
Cmc east again back to se fl


This is not true, CMC is way west.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9863 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:51 pm

floridasun78 wrote:
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:The CMC is the most bipolar model I've ever seen.

you think would go far west? that mean miami see only ts wind if cms right

Depends on how silly the run gets. If it goes straight into FL then maybe, but if it goes far into the GOM then no.
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Steve
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9864 Postby Steve » Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:51 pm

HWRF mostly runs the coast of Cuba. It curves up soon (convex?) so west or wnw can still move close to the shoreline. It's turning up at 33 hours after smashing the Cuban coast for the 21 hours into the run began 7P.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=100

HMON out to 36 hours spends less time on the coast but swings pretty wide into the western Keys.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0900&fh=36
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9865 Postby ALhurricane » Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:52 pm

Sanibel wrote:Our local met -who is at full alarm mode - said watch for possible Gulf entry... Said trough failed to erode ridge...


That's just crazy. The trough is just coming in. :)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9866 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:56 pm

HWRF maybe half a degree to the east through 39 hours.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9867 Postby Steve » Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:56 pm

ALhurricane wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Our local met -who is at full alarm mode - said watch for possible Gulf entry... Said trough failed to erode ridge...


That's just crazy. The trough is just coming in. :)


Probably was referring to the one in the East and not the reinforcement coming through Arkansas at the moment.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/wv-animated.gif
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9868 Postby Jevo » Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:06 am

0z HWRF +42 back East from 18z... Not by much, but noticeable

Goes on to run up the spine of the state

Image
Last edited by Jevo on Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9869 Postby bella_may » Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:14 am

Which CMC are y'all looking at? The latest one I see takes it up the spine of Florida
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9870 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:17 am

No Change in Navgem

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9871 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:25 am

Steve wrote:HWRF mostly runs the coast of Cuba. It curves up soon (convex?) so west or wnw can still move close to the shoreline. It's turning up at 33 hours after smashing the Cuban coast for the 21 hours into the run began 7P.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=100

HMON out to 36 hours spends less time on the coast but swings pretty wide into the western Keys.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0900&fh=36
missing part of run
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9872 Postby sponger » Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:45 am

Alright Euro is running. Hoping it does not follow the GFS EAST.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9873 Postby PandaCitrus » Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:55 am

Euro at 24 hours is still on the Cuban coast!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9874 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:55 am

sponger wrote:Alright Euro is running. Hoping it does not follow the GFS EAST.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

look like west but not all out
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9875 Postby sponger » Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:55 am

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0900&fh=24

24 HR still hugging Cuba.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9876 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:57 am

That is quite the shift west so far... is it possible 00z Euro took the earlier dive into Cuba and ran with it a bit too much?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9877 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:57 am

slight SW shift from the EC. GFS shift can be ignored
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9878 Postby sponger » Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:58 am

Ridge is gone at 24, cleared to go North.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9879 Postby PandaCitrus » Sat Sep 09, 2017 12:59 am

Wow, if this goes into the gulf and hits the panhandle and misses the entire Florida peninsula to the west. That would be something.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#9880 Postby tronbunny » Sat Sep 09, 2017 1:00 am

PandaCitrus wrote:Euro at 24 hours is still on the Cuban coast!

Irma is south and west of the points from last 2 runs
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