ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I was here then, not to mention Andrew was strong but size was small and went through pretty quick.

[Scorpion]

I've seen this as an analog to the 1928 and 1947 hurricanes from the beginning. South Florida is overdue for a big hit.

[AdamFirst]

Another reason not for Irma to come here - I don't want her cancelling the Dolphins season opener against the Bucs

Don't mess with my football, darned hurricane

[Bocadude85]

I've seen this as an analog to the 1928 and 1947 hurricanes from the beginning. South Florida is overdue for a big hit.

I agree, nature has a way of balancing itself out and S.Fla has been overdue for a major for awhile now. I'd say there is a 50/50 shot Irma will break the drought.

[SunnyThoughts]

Is evbody staying up for the euro tonight? I got coffee brewing...gotta work all weekend so can't stay up late again until mon. First gotta get through the gfs. You guys think it holds serve? Farther west? Farther east?

[Hurricaneman]

Is evbody staying up for the euro tonight? I got coffee brewing...gotta work all weekend so can't stay up late again until mon. First gotta get through the gfs. You guys think it holds serve? Farther west? Farther east?

10 mile shift north

[SunnyThoughts]

it sure would be wonderful if they both turned it out to sea this cycle. Doubt it happens for sure..but a gal can wish.

[rickybobby]

Wesh 2 has the euro hitting Cuba and going into the gom. They did research from all of the hurricanes where Irma is at and none have hit florida. The guy sounded confident that florida will be lucky again.

[Blinhart]

Is evbody staying up for the euro tonight? I got coffee brewing...gotta work all weekend so can't stay up late again until mon. First gotta get through the gfs. You guys think it holds serve? Farther west? Farther east?

10 mile shift north

I'll go with a 70 mile shift Sw

[Bocadude85]

Is evbody staying up for the euro tonight? I got coffee brewing...gotta work all weekend so can't stay up late again until mon. First gotta get through the gfs. You guys think it holds serve? Farther west? Farther east?

I think the Euro will be a little southwest in the midterm and a little northeast in the long range.

[TJRE]

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm

The scope of her outflow - ATM
is just mind boggling to me.

https://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/go ... latest.jpg

[Aric Dunn]

Finally ! the SSD site switch the floater sheesh .. only 2 days late.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

should be looking at a near at cat 4 tomorrow morning by the way.. if not a cat 4.. 11M.. ISH

[northjaxpro]

Is evbody staying up for the euro tonight? I got coffee brewing...gotta work all weekend so can't stay up late again until mon. First gotta get through the gfs. You guys think it holds serve? Farther west? Farther east?

10 mile shift north

Well I hope your WESH met is right. Florida has been extremely lucky since 2005 with our streak of avoiding major hurricanes. However, at some point our luck is going to run out. Look at Harvey of what he has done in South Texas and SW Louisiana. I just hope we keep our luck going just a little while longer. We can only hope for the best!

[SunnyThoughts]

I'm worried for the Carolinas. If gfs moves a little towards euro, and euro moves a little towards gfs, I've always thought a spot in between both is a fair guess. (Sorry Carolina folks)

[eastcoastFL]

This question is open to everyone, but really to my local S.FLA friends on here. you all know who your are, Boca, JFL South fla storm and so on.
Based on the latest model runs, meaning a blend of them all not just the GFS or the EURO, what is your thinking as to where Irma will end up.

I think we will have to wait and see if she takes this SW bend as forecasted and if so how far sw will she go. The ridge will be a big factor for us in SFL. Right now if I had to guess I'd say anywhere from north Carolina to homestead.

I feel like if she takes less of a SW dip Central Florida north from like Martin county to the Carolina would be more likely. If she heads further south on that bend it could be devastating for Cuba and the keys and potentially the GOM if she does curve back in time.

[eastcoastFL]

If Irma does head toward S Fl, I wonder if more people will evacuate after the devastation left in Texas by Harvey...:

If Irma is looking like she will be heading to Florida by Monday or Tuesday I'm going to be evacuating maybe to Georgia.

Last year with Matthew I regretted not leaving just before the storm was supposed to hit and then we got lucky and it wobbled. But just prior to that wobbled my local forecast was for 145mph winds and I was wishing I left.

I have small kids so if there's anything over a cat 2 again I'm outta here with as much time to spare as I can.

I'm in Palm City by the way which is just North of Palm Beach county on the east coast.

[Aric Dunn]

Irma is definately on an intensifying phase right now. circular CDO and intense convection in the eyewall ... it also the last hour appears to have turned more westerly again. It is the best it has looked so far.

[eastcoastFL]

Wesh 2 has the euro hitting Cuba and going into the gom. They did research from all of the hurricanes where Irma is at and none have hit florida. The guy sounded confident that florida will be lucky again.

Someone posted historical data earlier based on where Irma is and almost all of the storm hit Florida. Each major actually hit Florida too. Where did you see this? It doesn't sound right

[rickybobby]

Wesh 2 has the euro hitting Cuba and going into the gom. They did research from all of the hurricanes where Irma is at and none have hit florida. The guy sounded confident that florida will be lucky again.

Someone posted historical data earlier based on where Irma is and almost all of the storm hit Florida. Each major actually hit Florida too. Where did you see this? It doesn't sound right

He posted where Irma is at and looked at past storms and said none of them have come close to Florida.

[floridasun78]

the twc show storm that area were IRMA going be by sunday dont move out to toward NORTH WEST their move toward bahamas butting fl in hot seat so this weekend their going a lot models watching see system move more wnw or nw if their weakness