ATL: IRMA - Models

[gatorcane]

CMC shifted west and is weaker as it has it landfalling in Cuba:

[newtotex]

12z GFS 66 hrs... Just SSW of 06z... Near Orlando

I know the GFS is the outlier and overaggressive on strength but what kind of weakening did it have as it went near Orlando?

If the current run of the GFS is to be believed then it would have Irma as a 940 CAT3 near/south of Orlando. I'll let someone much more wise than me chime in!

[CronkPSU]

12z GFS 66 hrs... Just SSW of 06z... Near Orlando

I know the GFS is the outlier and overaggressive on strength but what kind of weakening did it have as it went near Orlando?

If the current run of the GFS is to be believed then it would have Irma as a 940 CAT3 near/south of Orlando. I'll let someone much more wise than me chime in!

thanks...yeah, that is what i kinda thought it would be based on the other readings...

[crimi481]

Based on Models, Is it possible the ridge sends Irma into gulf?

[gatorcane]

JMA landfall Tampa:

[tarheelprogrammer]

What is the UKMET showing?

[caneman]

JMA landfall Tampa:

F that!!

[Steve]

JMA was a western outlier for a while. It moved east of the EC yesterday and is going back west today. While certainly better for those in SE FL, it's probably overdoing it.

[miamijaaz]

I know it's been said before, but it looks like the models that take Irma closest to Cuba have landfall more towards the west coast of Florida, while the ones that keep Irma more offshore Cuba have landfall further east.

[HurricaneFrances04]

What is the UKMET showing?

No longer shows a Cuba landfall.



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 08.09.2017



HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.7N 74.6W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 08.09.2017 21.7N 74.6W INTENSE

00UTC 09.09.2017 22.2N 77.1W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 09.09.2017 22.4N 78.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 10.09.2017 22.9N 80.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 10.09.2017 24.1N 81.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 11.09.2017 25.8N 81.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 11.09.2017 28.3N 82.0W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 12.09.2017 31.6N 82.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 12.09.2017 34.2N 84.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 13.09.2017 35.4N 87.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 13.09.2017 35.0N 88.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 14.09.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

[adam0983]

The next 13 hours will tell the story

[Steve]

HMON, jury's out on that model, takes it farther south onto the Northern Cuba coast. Running now through 30 hours. HRF is out to 18 and appears to be a bit farther north than HMON.

HMON
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... =0&ypos=73

HWRF
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=293

[TheStormExpert]

If I had to guess we may see another west nudge with the Euro on its 12z run, JMO.

[fendie]

12z GFS 66 hrs... Just SSW of 06z... Near Orlando

I know the GFS is the outlier and overaggressive on strength but what kind of weakening did it have as it went near Orlando?

From hi-res 12Z GFS 6-hourly:

8 pm EDT Sun Sep 10: Over Lake Placid, FL, 925 mb MSLP, 78 knots max 10m wind, gusts to 105 knots
2 am EDT Mon Sep 11: Over Frostproof, FL, 940 mb, 78 knots, gust to 100 knots, traveled ~40 miles @ 6-7 mph
8 am EDT Mon Sep 11: Over Ocala, FL, 953 mb, 74 knots, gusts to 95 knots, traveled ~105 miles @ 17-18 mph

NOTE: The screenshots below are simply from navigational mapping software with the cities the center is modeled to be over on the 12Z GFS as destinations. The points are the path one would take when walking on a nice sunny day and NOT the coordinates taken from a model run or a suggested evacuation route. As always, consult The National Hurricane Center or your local National Weather Service Office for information regarding Irma.

[jdjaguar]

JMA landfall Tampa:

Tampa/Sarasota Zone A Mandatory Evacuation 2:00 pm

[Jevo]

Will palm beach county be spared now with the west shift of the models?

no this storm is almost 3 times the width of the state of Florida

[Michele B]

JMA landfall Tampa:

F that!!

I second that emotion.

[Jevo]

Nothing I've seen would make me think the NHC track won't shift W again at next advisory, especially if Euro does...

As long as the GFS stays on the peninsula as it did with the 12z run the NHC will keep their track on the peninsula. They have been splitting the difference for the last 3 days. The moment they move that little silly spaghetti line people focus so much on and don't realize the storm is three times the size of the state then you have people start letting their guard down when a 40 mile wobble East Before for landfall takes out south east metro Florida. We are just splitting hairs at this point.

[gatorcane]

these west shifts in the models every cycle the last 24-36 hours is very reminiscent of Matthew. Seems like every run they keep shifting west even though we are within 48 and sometimes even 24 hours. When will these west shifts stop? Now watch the Euro shift east some.

[jdjaguar]

these west shifts in the models every cycle the last 24-36 hours is very reminiscent of Matthew. Seems like every run they keep shifting west even though we are within 48 and sometimes even 24 hours. When will these west shifts stop? Now watch the Euro shift east some.

1:45 runtime correct?