ATL: IRMA - Models

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[SFLcane]

Power outages will be in the millions

[FLpanhandle91]

Really rides the coast all the way up. This puts the eastern eyewall just on shore with a large chunk of the storms core still over water. In my opinion this would allow Irma to remain stronger as it scoots north vs a central spine run. This is about as catastrophic of a run as I've seen yet. Really hope it doesn't verify.

[AdamFirst]

Just seeing the storm bomb out over the Gulf Stream...I don't see why it wouldn't.

[tolakram]

Stays inland it appears.

[Michele B]

My local chief Met Paul Dellegato from Fox 13 Has been studying the the GFS verification and he has said it has not done well last couple days.

My opinion is it has not done well in 10 years....

[Raebie]

OK well that sucked.

[tolakram]

My local chief Met Paul Dellegato from Fox 13 Has been studying the the GFS verification and he has said it has not done well last couple days.

My opinion is it has not done well in 10 years....

It did decently before the latest upgrade.

[sponger]

Brutal run all the way around. At least it tears the storm apart fairly quickly but we could see 100 mph gusts in North FL!

[Meteorcane]

+72 - 78 ... In line with the NHC... Perhaps they are adding more weight to the GFS than we are assuming...

This run was not available to them when they made the 5PM track... this is more of "the GFS coming in line with the other models and thus by proxy the NHC

[stormreader]

Stays inland it appears.

That was one of the clues that the Euro and other westerners had an edge. There was already very little room for maneuver east further up the coast,
according to model forecasts for days. So when the GFS led the way with a Mathew-esque storm, east enough to let the core remain offshore in S Fl, it smelled a little fishy. Pun intended. Now look, this run doesn't even allow the storm off the east coast at any time.

[Hurrilurker]

Power outages will be in the millions

EASILY. Even Puerto Rico reported a million people without power from Irma and they were on the "weak" side of the storm that wasn't a direct hit.

[Stormcenter]

Latest EURO shows Irma going nowhere near the East coast

[johngaltfla]

My local chief Met Paul Dellegato from Fox 13 Has been studying the the GFS verification and he has said it has not done well last couple days.

When Paul analyzed this, he pointed to the Euro's track record.

Now he looks a little worried.

Now, I'm in panic mode. A West Coast runner is as bad as an East Coast runner.

I'm hoping the NHC forecast pans out thus limiting my wind exposure to 90-120 mph.

[FLpanhandle91]

Euro and GFS in pretty good agreement there.

[tolakram]

My local chief Met Paul Dellegato from Fox 13 Has been studying the the GFS verification and he has said it has not done well last couple days.

When Paul analyzed this, he pointed to the Euro's track record.

Now he looks a little worried.

Now, I'm in panic mode. A West Coast runner is as bad as an East Coast runner.

I'm hoping the NHC forecast pans out thus limiting my wind exposure to 90-120 mph.

I would bug out, Irma is huge and this won't be easy once it passes. If you have weeks of supplies and such probably not an issue but I really think we are looking at a very wide disaster area that may not feature total destruction all over but limbs and poles and so much crap in the roads it will be hard to move around for weeks.

[stormreader]

The Euro has been unflinchingly on the S Fl coast for days. It may have missed (just barely) with one run to the east of S Fl a couple of days ago. But in its last several runs, its been amazingly consistent. Don't have the exact numbers, seems like it goes back toward the 6 day outlook (but just guessing here).

[Frank P]

not sure if anyone watch the entire loop of the GFS but it goes up to middle TN, then loops down into N. MS and is heading south.. then run stops... how crazy is that...

[Stormcenter]

Can you please post that? Thanks!

quote="Frank P"]not sure if anyone watch the entire loop of the GFS but it goes up to middle TN, then loops down into N. MS and is heading south.. then run stops... how crazy is that...[/quote]