ATL: IRMA - Models

[AxaltaRacing24]

Lets see if that forecasted wsw motion allows Irma to pass through the Hebert Box. I'm betting that it does.

It should put it right in the middle of it.

[txwatcher91]

So far the GFS has trended towards the Euro, as expected, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Euro holds steady tonight while the GFS comes south again. Splitting the difference between the two at this range usually leads to a pretty good idea of where a storm will go.

[floridasun78]

00Z guidance. Looks like it is moving left of the guidance:

that good sign we hope berumda could see ts wind

[Miami Storm Tracker]

How is that good, unless I am missing something left means more west

[GeneratorPower]

So far the GFS has trended towards the Euro, as expected, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Euro holds steady tonight while the GFS comes south again. Splitting the difference between the two at this range usually leads to a pretty good idea of where a storm will go.

Operational Euro shifted about 250 miles south last run compared to previous.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

How is that good, unless I am missing something left means more west

My thoughts exactly.

[SouthFLTropics]

How is that good, unless I am missing something left means more west

It's good for Bermuda I suppose...But a left trend in the models is not what the CONUS wants to see or the islands, being the more immediate concern. Personally I'm hoping that the 10 plus day models show a direct hit on Florida. It's good for entertainment value and that's about it because it normally is the safest place to be at 10 plus days. Right in the bullseye because it rarely verifies.

[txwatcher91]

So far the GFS has trended towards the Euro, as expected, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Euro holds steady tonight while the GFS comes south again. Splitting the difference between the two at this range usually leads to a pretty good idea of where a storm will go.

Operational Euro shifted about 250 miles south last run compared to previous.

It did outside 5 days, but inside 5 days the Euro was pretty much the same as it’s previous run, except a bit faster. I expect the GFS will keep adjusting south and it’s obvious that Irma isn’t moving WNW or NW like some models had it doing by now.

[Bocadude85]

How is that good, unless I am missing something left means more west

It's good for Bermuda I suppose...But a left trend in the models is not what the CONUS wants to see or the islands, being the more immediate concern. Personally I'm hoping that the 10 plus day models show a direct hit on Florida. It's good for entertainment value and that's about it because it normally is the safest place to be at 10 plus days. Right in the bullseye because it rarely verifies.

My thoughts exactly..the fact the models are not showing a Florida threat right now is concerning. The ensembles are even more concerning to me as for the most part they agree on a western Bahamas threat. South Florida has a rich history of hurricane strikes from the southeast in the first 2 weeks of September.

[SouthFLTropics]

00z GFS initiated

[AxaltaRacing24]

It's subtle but it is 2mb stronger and a hair farther SW right off the bat

[SouthFLTropics]

Yep...through 18 hours, further SW

[AxaltaRacing24]

Somehow gains latitude up to 18N (albeit farther south than the 18z)

[AxaltaRacing24]

[AxaltaRacing24]

Just slightly faster than the 18z at this point

[txwatcher91]

Comparing the GFS and Euro through hour 48, the Euro is a bit further south and matches up far better with the current W movement we are seeing from Irma. I don’t buy the GFS at all.

[AxaltaRacing24]

The south dip commences at 60 hrs

[AxaltaRacing24]

Comparing the GFS and Euro through hour 48, the Euro is a bit further south and matches up far better with the current W movement we are seeing from Irma. I don’t buy the GFS at all.

It is definitely on the northern side.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Here's a look at the steering so far

[AxaltaRacing24]

No change so far. Only a hair faster