ATL: IRMA - Models

[KWT]

Can I ask why most of you are dismissing GFS if it fishes vs EURO?@

The GFS tends to overestimate trough strength.

Maybe just me, seems models have been over doing HP this year...

I haven't got any imperical evidence to back me up, however my own feelins are generally:

GFS and CMC prone to overdoing troughing. Very good though in zonal airflows and noticing little kinks in the flow so to speak. CMC tends to overdo the kinks as well.

UKMO prone to overdoing ridging, but tends to spot trends when other models have overamped troughing before the others see it.

ECM probably the best overall, can overdo ridiging IMO but not to a huge extent, can be a little sow in shifting patterns sometimes.

These are things I've noticed, and this is for the UK which is at a similar latitude to where this upper trough will be.

[Kazmit]

Peaks at a 903mb cat 5 and then passes very close to Bermuda as a cat 4.

[RL3AO]

18z GFS - Once again past model loops archived in the first post of the thread.

GFS 18Z Aug 30:

[Evenstar]

I purged quite a few posts from the 18z model run. Most of them that were one liners like "120 hrs moving W" with no image or additional information.

No offense, but sometimes, those one liners help ignorant people like me better understand the crazy-looking models.

[RL3AO]

I purged quite a few posts from the 18z model run. Most of them that were one liners like "120 hrs moving W" with no image or additional information.

No offense, but sometimes, those one liners help ignorant people like me better understand the crazy-looking models.

The one liners are fine if there is an image to go with it. Many times it's just a comment and there is no image for others to compare it to.

[Evenstar]

I purged quite a few posts from the 18z model run. Most of them that were one liners like "120 hrs moving W" with no image or additional information.

No offense, but sometimes, those one liners help ignorant people like me better understand the crazy-looking models.

The one liners are fine if there is an image to go with it. Many times it's just a comment and there is no image for others to compare it to.

Cool beans. I've got no beef with that.

[MacTavish]

From what I can gather, seeing the models bringing this trough through the EC for a while now.. It will really all depend on the forward speed of Irma. That trough is a monster and has been unanimous in the models for the last 3-4 days. Basically a guaranteed Bermuda threat unless Irma is not in position to be picked up by it. After that its unclear.

I think we could possibly see an annular storm in a few days though. Should be interesting to watch.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

GFS path certainly is possible, especially if Irma intensifies, but model consensus ATM is further south.

[psyclone]

Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks from the CPC show broad swaths of the east below normal with some of the probs (for chilly weather) very high. This certainly lends credence to the strong trough in the east idea, and FWIW, that is a pattern that has been very persistent this Summer with a rather cool Summer over much of the lakes and ohio valley.

[hohnywx]

Peaks at a 903mb cat 5 and then passes very close to Bermuda as a cat 4.

Image Removed

Previous hours had it down to 897mb, so not sure your peak pressure is correct.

[Exalt]

Why would it send this straight into the high?

[AxaltaRacing24]

Why would it send this straight into the high?

The GFS has always a tendency to do that. It's just part of the GFS. I also saw some mets on twitter mention the same thing after the 12z run.

[nativefloridian]

Why would it send this straight into the high?

My best guess is because the comments are based on the latest GFS model run. Just my opinion.

[KWT]

Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks from the CPC show broad swaths of the east below normal with some of the probs (for chilly weather) very high. This certainly lends credence to the strong trough in the east idea, and FWIW, that is a pattern that has been very persistent this Summer with a rather cool Summer over much of the lakes and ohio valley.

Yeah, and to be fair even the ECM is agreeing with the troughing idea, its just that looking at the GFS I feel its probably somewhat overdoing the troughing and its does have something of a bias for doing that.

Peak low pressure was 896mbs by the way.

[gatorcane]

Ugh...more GFS ensembles turn this west east of Bahamas compared to 12Z:

[AutoPenalti]

FWIW, something to note if this wasn't posted already.


 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/903031486768717824

[nativefloridian]

Ugh...more GFS ensembles turn this west east of Bahamas compared to 12Z:

Well as we know the models will flip-flop....but you can bet I'll be paying close attention since I live in South Florida!

[RL3AO]

Why would it send this straight into the high?

It doesn't. It moves around the mid level ridge.

[otowntiger]

Just stop the nonsense please. I happen to think this will recurve, just not sure where. Almost all cape verde systems recurve. We just don't know yet because the range is too far.

Here, Euro goes to 240, here is the GFS at 240.

I agree with this. In my opinion i will go as far as say it will likely recurve east of Bermuda. Just based on current position and what storms usually do.

[RL3AO]

I agree with this. In my opinion i will go as far as say it will likely recurve east of Bermuda. Just based on current position and what storms usually do.

I guess I'm the opposite. I'll be surprised if goes east of Bermuda.