ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

HMON run seems to have froze. Been stuck at 93 hrs. In addition, there has been no stats file created. It seemed it had shifted a little to the north

Yeah it did freeze and so far it is way north of the 12Z run but also weaker and a weak depression at best !

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

I'm still skeptical of this even forming anyways it has alot to work on so for now I don't even think it regenerates

[stormreader]

18z GFS coming in much farther north. Looks like we're starting to get a consensus that this will redevelop in the southwest Gulf and make landfall somewhere north of Veracruz late this week.

Is Corpus christi still in play ?

Yeah I think so. Really interested to see the 0z runs tonight.

We'll see. Went out on a limb Friday and said it would make a U.S. Landfall. From what I've seen there still hasn't been enough model consistency to support that call. Still time though. And I think models will not be in lock step with each other in any case. Could be a little spread even upon emerging into the GOM.

[stormreader]

120 mile southward shift on the landfall point for the HWRF

Yes but ironically the impacts to Texas are worst with this run anyways and that Due west movement in the BOC then NORTH is probably unlikely unless steering flow literally collapses but your the Pro Im not saying your wrong .... I'm just saying Texas needs to keep a eye on this .... I'm sure you agree

Always sensed that as a possibility (not likely), but a late mostly north move up the Texas coast. That's by no means likely. But to approach even Brownsville would require a respectable north component.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

120 mile southward shift on the landfall point for the HWRF

Yes but ironically the impacts to Texas are worst with this run anyways and that Due west movement in the BOC then NORTH is probably unlikely unless steering flow literally collapses but your the Pro Im not saying your wrong .... I'm just saying Texas needs to keep a eye on this .... I'm sure you agree

Always sensed that as a possibility (not likely), but a late mostly north move up the Texas coast. That's by no means likely. But to approach even Brownsville would require a respectable north component.

Well some models bring it to Texas which make is a scenario!

[stormlover2013]

Depends where it comes off the Yucatán..

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Depends where it comes off the Yucatán..

Not entirely many factors at play here

[WeatherEmperor]

The latest amodels including the multi model consensus still brings this to Mexico not Texas.


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[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=2


Nam 00 run

[tropicwatch]

The latest amodels including the multi model consensus still brings this to Mexico not Texas.


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That is still quite a northward shift. A consolidated one at that, so Texas is definitely not out of the picture yet.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

JMA modeling a rain event..with v/weak surface wind.

[South Texas Storms]

0z GFS with another northward shift. Now makes landfall just south of the border.

[Steve]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017082100&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=2


Nam 00 run

It's outmatched with systems that far south. No way it defies all the other models unless when it randomly hits something in the northern Gulf or off the SE Coast.

[Rgv20]

I would say about 50 to 75 Miles north of the 18z GFS run

0zGFS has landfall Friday Morning

[stormlover2013]

Ukmet should be soon somebody post when u get it

[Rgv20]

0zUKMET Text output.....Has landfall in NE Mexico really close to Brownsville by Friday Morning.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 21.0N 92.8W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 23.08.2017 21.0N 92.8W WEAK

00UTC 24.08.2017 21.9N 93.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.08.2017 23.0N 94.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 25.08.2017 23.9N 95.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 25.08.2017 25.0N 97.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 26.08.2017 26.4N 98.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 26.08.2017 27.8N 100.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 27.08.2017 28.3N 101.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

[stormlover2013]

Pic?

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Ukmet should be soon somebody post when u get it

Images are usually post here not long after the uk model runs. Bottom of the page link..

http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_0012_foreign_models.htm

[Rgv20]

0zGFS Ensembles has a few members with landfall in South Texas. It seems that the majority agree with the operational run with a landfall in NE Mexico.

[Cpv17]

HMON