ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

All the GEFS Ensembles go OTS on their 12z run.

[Alyono]

Canadian made a massive northward shift

[TheAustinMan]

MPAS has offered up a fairly unique track solution from its 00z run earlier today. Development is delayed as 99L tracks towards the Lesser Antilles after which an upper-level low guides the storm north of the Greater Antilles, placing it in position to intensify. Ridging after that keeps 99L on a westerly track towards Florida, at least according to MPAS.

[Siker]

All the GEFS Ensembles go OTS on their 12z run.

A few hit New England, but yes, most of them pass between Bermuda and the East Coast.

[AutoPenalti]

I thought MPAS was not really useful for tracking?

[gatorcane]

Saw the latest GFS and CMC runs. I really think the GFS and CMC are too strong with this and way too far north. Look for these models to gradually shift west and show something weaker. There is still dry air around the MDR out there. Way too early to know where it ends up if it develops or how strong it could get down the road.

[Siker]

HMON has this choking on dry air by 96 hours.

[Alyono]

HMON very weak and well north

[WeatherEmperor]

I finally found the Hmon. Looks like it peaks at 995mb and then gets weaker later in the run as other posters said.


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[TropicalAnalystwx13]

A vigorous tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system
is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers more than 300
miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week over the
eastern or central tropical Atlantic Ocean. This system is forecast
to move toward the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph for the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[tolakram]

Two for two now with Stewart and the wall of monitors.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/893166610567098372

[Siker]

Euro stronger than 00z but still a very weak TC through 96 hours.

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro 96 hrs

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro 144hrs, gulf system looking far more impressive

[WeatherEmperor]

12z Navgem has what appears to be a TS into the northern islands at the end of its run


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[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

As of 18:00 UTC Aug 03, 2017:

Location: 10.2°N 20.9°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 70 NM

[cycloneye]

[otowntiger]

It seems that there is not much consensus on the ultimate track (at least after the first several days anyway), except that all of them seem to keep it weak or fairly weak at this point, correct?

[AutoPenalti]

What's with the random hopscotching?

[otowntiger]

Remember not to use the globals as a guide for intensity. If they were good at it then intensity forecasts would be easy. I don't think we have any real idea, up or down, what this will do yet. It seems early to me, if this was mid August then maybe but this one may turn out to be another weak storm that sets the stage for more later.

or not.

I agree with this. forecasting intensity is still a very difficult area. There is a lot of guesswork involved and its kinda like throwing at dart at the wall - very hit or miss. But tracking has improved very steadily and is pretty acurate within a 3-5 day window, comparatively speaking that is.