ATL: EMILY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

Based on the text books I'd say based on the simply fact that the convection is forming over the LLC it is likely to be tropical in nature. A extratropical system trend to develop "convection" and the convergence to develop convection along the front separating the air masses.

A "new" extratropical low along the front can have convection but it would be frontal in nature. this just doesn't appear to be developed by the convergence by the front.

[northjaxpro]

As I mentioned in a previous post, I think 98L has detached itself from the frontal boundary and is fully tropical in characteristics now.

Convection should it sustain overnight, should allow 98L to be classified as a TD at least later on Monday.

[Hurricaneman]

Dry air entrainment seems to be the biggest problem right now so we'll see how it or if it mixes it out

[northjaxpro]

Dry air entrainment seems to be the biggest problem right now so we'll see how it or if it mixes it out

Yeah, that had been my thinking as well, that dry air from the north would get entrained into the system. However. much to my surprise this evening, 98L has fended off the dry air and has since increased convection near the LLC and improved structurally in organization. We will see if 98L will keep this up overnight.

[tropicwatch]

I don't know how accurate the graphics from earth.nullschool.net are but here is a saved image of their surface wind analysis. Impressive if accurate.

[Aric Dunn]

big push of shear is coming for it.. 40 to 60 kts.. will see what happens..

[USTropics]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/891874414995922944




Closer to home, a GOES-16 meso 1-minute sector is running over #AL98 in the eastern Gulf of Mexico:
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=1000&y=1000&z=1&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=6&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=1&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Aric Dunn]

Its close to being classifiable. but still may be interacting with the trough.

[Aric Dunn]

Center is roughly here. Though could at any point reform where convection forms. Its trying.

its not supposed to be soo big sorry.. lol

[USTropics]

Up to 40% at 2AM

Satellite and radar data indicate that showers and thunderstorms
associated with a small low pressure area located about 90 miles
west of Tampa, Florida, are showing some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for some
additional development before the low moves inland over the
central Florida peninsula later today or tonight, and over the
western Atlantic late Tuesday or Wednesday. Regardless of
development, the low is expected to produce gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall across portions of the Florida peninsula during the
next couple of days. Please see additional information from your
local National Weather Service Forecast Offices concerning the
rainfall threat.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[stormreader]

[northjaxpro]

In addition to 98L, we have a naked swirl just off the coast of Flagler Beach and Daytona Beach. It is stationary.

As for 98L, it appears to be about stationary in this early pre-dawn morning hour. Radar continues to show that curved, convective band rotating into the very small, but well developed LLC. I think convection is hanging tough and is sustaining near the LLC. Also, buoy data, presentation on radar and satellite imagery is sufficient enough imo to classify 98L as a tropical cyclone. I anticipate advisories to be issued on this system at a minimum as a TD later today. It could attain minimal TS as well in the next 12-24 hours.

BTW, models keep this system meandering in the NE GOM during the next 12- 24 hours. The recent GFS and EURO keeps 98L weak and eventually move it across North Florida on Tuesday into Tuesday night and then into the Atlantic.

I usually do not place much faith in the NAM, but the latest run wants to develop this into TS Emily and move it north into the Florida Big Bend region by Wednesday morning.

[johngaltfla]

With sustained winds of over 18 mph from the SSW and the amount of rain we've received at my location overnight (almost 2 inches) I would bet this gets a name by 0800 ET. Here's the snapshot of Tampa radar and one can clearly see the center of this storm forming nicely:

[northjaxpro]

I measured 2.3 inches of rainfall yesterday, courtesy of the frontal boundary which dropped through the region yesterday. A very good soaking indeed.

Depending on the eventual evolution of 98L, we likely are going to get more heavy rain across North Florida by the middle of this week.

I agree with you John BTW. I also am leaning toward this system being named Emily later today or tonight.

[johngaltfla]

NorthJax, I'm a good 14 miles inland from the coast so I'm sure that my friends and family closer to Siesta Key and Casey Key are getting a bit more of a lashing. I think pressures will drop fast enough to get named then be ashore by 6 p.m. tonight. It is going to be one heck of a rain maker and I'm afraid we're so saturated that the flooding will be unreal. I'll try to take pictures while I'm out making sales calls if there is anything notable.

Edit to add: Oh, and the center is now hitting the 87-89 degree water temps off our coast.

[Hammy]

NHC will be initiating advisories by 6 AM EDT on Tropical Depression Six, located west of Tampa, Florida.

[johngaltfla]

NHC will be initiating advisories by 6 AM EDT on Tropical Depression Six, located west of Tampa, Florida.

Was just getting ready to post it as our local mets just said it. She's got potential over our warm waters off our coast.

[northjaxpro]

: Well, there is no guarantee this system will come ashore today John. The models depict weak steering for about the next 12-24 hours. I mentioned in my earlier post above on this page on what some of the models, such as GFS and EURO are analyzing 98L doing.

Be careful out there today!

[northjaxpro]

Well, NHC issuing advisories on TD 6. I expected this. I think a good call by NHC to get this out in time for the early 6 a.m. morning news.

[johngaltfla]

:uarrow: Well, there is no guarantee this system will come ashore today John. The models depict weak steering for about the next 12-24 hours. I mentioned in my earlier post above on this page on what some of the models, such as GFS and EURO are analyzing 98L doing.

Be careful out there today!

Thanks! IF it stays off shore Emily is a guarantee. Local mets think it will still come ashore this afternoon somewhere near the mouth of Tampa Bay. The problem as you know is that gulf systems have a mind of their own especially when they hit that nitro known as our hot water temps.