ATL: DON - Remnants - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
The convective pattern sure does lead one to thinking cyclogenesis is occuring..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:The convective pattern sure does lead one to thinking cyclogenesis is occuring..
I have a hunch it's indeed occurring. Percentages will likely be increased in the 2 AM TWO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Persistent convection overnight as 95l approaches -50w.
Wonder if the convection will continue during the day tomorrow and get named TD5?
Wonder if the convection will continue during the day tomorrow and get named TD5?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Weather150 wrote:https://a.disquscdn.com/get?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tropicaltidbits.com%2Fanalysis%2Fmodels%2Fhwrf%2F2017071618%2Fhwrf_mslp_wind_95L_25.png&key=BA6ibD1kx6hrR4k8eSr_lQ&w=800&h=630
HWRF and HWRF Para getting this to a hurricane somehow. Wonder what they are seeing.
HWRF gonna HWRF.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
GFS coming in weaker with this. Favoring the system in the back
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
GFS Parallel loses them both. Either too much dry air or too much shear. It's pick your poison at this point until one or the other fades away.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Nimbus wrote:Persistent convection overnight as 95l approaches -50w.
Wonder if the convection will continue during the day tomorrow and get named TD5?
If so recon will find out
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
I think a mid range tropical storm is possible before it hits the wall of shear
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
hope not telling us what islands can expect in aug could be wild ride if we see train hurr coming from far Atlantic hope high pressure dont build far west so could turn storms out to sea
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
A small low pressure system located about 800 miles east of the
Windward Islands is moving westward at about 15 mph. Associated
shower and thunderstorm activity is beginning to show some signs
of organization, and environmental conditions are forecast to be
marginally conducive for some development of this system before it
reaches the Lesser Antilles in two to three days. After that time,
less favorable upper-level winds are expected to hinder additional
development. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Windward Islands is moving westward at about 15 mph. Associated
shower and thunderstorm activity is beginning to show some signs
of organization, and environmental conditions are forecast to be
marginally conducive for some development of this system before it
reaches the Lesser Antilles in two to three days. After that time,
less favorable upper-level winds are expected to hinder additional
development. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Looks like its well on its way and we may wake up tomorrow with the recon finding a depression.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Euro has nothing. Doesn't even try to develop it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Kingarabian wrote:Euro has nothing. Doesn't even try to develop it.
EC has been a steaming turd pile though this year in genesis. Been missing the WPAC storms. Seems like it's back to its old ways of missing nearly everything
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