ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[hurricanes1234]

First mention on the TWO of possibly less favourable conditions to come.

[RL3AO]

If intense convection develops tonight, this could easily be a depression by tomorrow.

[abajan]

If intense convection develops tonight, this could easily be a depression by tomorrow.

For all we know, it may already be.

[Dylan]

Don't look now, but the 18z GFS ensembles aren't so quick to kill off 92L once it reaches the Caribbean. Some of the ensembles have it reaching Jamaica as a healthy Tropical Storm.

[RL3AO]

If intense convection develops tonight, this could easily be a depression by tomorrow.

For all we know, it may already be.

It's not at a point for NHC to initiate advisories without recon. Get some deep convection tonight and they probably will.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
729 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017


A tropical wave extends its axis from 10N33W to a 1012 mb low
pressure located near 06N34W to 00N33W moving westward at about 10
kt. Cloudiness and showers associated with this system have
become better organized since yesterday. Additional slow
development is possible during the next few days while the wave
moves westward over the tropical Atlantic. Satellite imagery
indicates scattered moderate convection from 03N to 09N between
30W and 36W. Latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a
low chance of development during the next 48 hours, and a medium
chance of development through 5 days.

[Hammy]

Don't look now, but the 18z GFS ensembles aren't so quick to kill off 92L once it reaches the Caribbean. Some of the ensembles have it reaching Jamaica as a healthy Tropical Storm.

GFS has a bad habit of under-forecasting the shear. That said, I think there's a decent shot of a Chantal-2013 type track if it forms, as it also formed fairly far to the south.

[floridasun78]

i hope stay in Caribbean if make it issue gulf don't need two system but could run into south America if shear dont kill it going min vacation on wed and thur to Miami beach don't need and worry

[Bocadude85]

First mention on the TWO of possibly less favourable conditions to come.

What unfavorable conditions are they talking about? 18Z GFS has this strengthening through 90 hours. I understand that weakening is forecast once this enters the Caribbean but that's 4 days away..not a day or two.

[floridasun78]

First mention on the TWO of possibly less favourable conditions to come.

What unfavorable conditions are they talking about? 18Z GFS has this strengthening through 90 hours. I understand that weakening is forecast once this enters the Caribbean but that's 4 days away..not a day or two.

i seen shear map their a lot shear in Caribbean i saw on site

[RL3AO]

First mention on the TWO of possibly less favourable conditions to come.

What unfavorable conditions are they talking about? 18Z GFS has this strengthening through 90 hours. I understand that weakening is forecast once this enters the Caribbean but that's 4 days away..not a day or two.

I really think the NHC is playing it conservative. It's rare to get a TC in the MDR in June. While conditions appear favorable for the next 3 or 4 days, I don't think they're in a hurry to raise the formation odds into the 60+% range too quickly. I still think we could have a TD tomorrow if things go right tonight.

[cycloneye]

Starting to climb in latutude.

AL, 92, 2017061700, , BEST, 0, 62N, 358W, 25, 1009, L

[Hammy]

First mention on the TWO of possibly less favourable conditions to come.

What unfavorable conditions are they talking about? 18Z GFS has this strengthening through 90 hours. I understand that weakening is forecast once this enters the Caribbean but that's 4 days away..not a day or two.

I really think the NHC is playing it conservative. It's rare to get a TC in the MDR in June. While conditions appear favorable for the next 3 or 4 days, I don't think they're in a hurry to raise the formation odds into the 60+% range too quickly. I still think we could have a TD tomorrow if things go right tonight.

It appears it's being inhibited somewhat by the systems to the east and west, so this could factor into why the numbers aren't higher as well.

[cycloneye]

[Dougiefresh]

That one to the east really flared up in the last 6 hours.

[cycloneye]

Somewhat elongated but circulation trying to close.

[floridasun78]

That one to the east really flared up in the last 6 hours.

i got feeling flare up down down as move west as we saw with 92l when came out Africa was big strong wave

[floridasun78]

are you surrise no plane plane go to 92l?

[cycloneye]

are you surrise no plane plane go to 92l?

Not mentioned in Fridays TCPOD.Let's see if the Saturdays one has a mention.

[1900hurricane]

92L appears to be near the western end of a monsoon trough. ASCAT shows SW winds south of the monsoon trough and NE winds to the north. This is providing great convergence and helping to enhance the low level vorticity. Convection will often die off when a disturbance tries to separate from the monsoon trough if it's not well formed enough because it loses the favorable background conditions the monsoon trough provides. We'll see what happens with 92L as it tries to detach, but this one looks fairly well developed to me. The monsoon trough only extends to about 40*W or so.