ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

I think the next 24 hours will tell us a lot. I think if the convective burst can sustain through now until this time tomorrow evening, I think this system just may have a window to possibly regenerate again once it can traverse past 65 degrees longitude. This is provided that convection can hold. Conditions look at its worst marginal for possible regeneration beyond 3 days from now, especially looking past 70 degrees longitude and beyond. It seems like the system is holding its own currently battling the dry air around it. I would say it is not quite yet to call in Bones on the scene.

[RL3AO]

Still a sharp wave axis with it. (Lower left of image...it's in the four corners of the ASCAT data on NOAA).

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Maybe not the same position but similar to Katrina, a weak wave then a depression, next thing you know a Cat 1 Hurricane knocking on your door.
But then again I am not saying the conditions are the same as Katrina for regeneration, just an observation of the possibilities.

[Aric Dunn]

Still a sharp wave axis with it. (Lower left of image...it's in the four corners of the ASCAT data on NOAA).

Thats hardly difinitive. Besides sat wind estimates are very diminished when the suspect area is covered in convecrion. Its an extrapolation. We saw and tracked a weak but defined circ all day as it mergred and developed convection that ee see now. Just have to wait and see.

[AtlanticWind]

Maybe not the same position but similar to Katrina, a weak wave then a depression, next thing you know a Cat 1 Hurricane knocking on your door.
But then again I am not saying the conditions are the same as Katrina for regeneration, just an observation of the possibilities.

I do remember how things can quickly change in the tropics,a system in that area is always of interest.

[northjaxpro]

Maybe not the same position but similar to Katrina, a weak wave then a depression, next thing you know a Cat 1 Hurricane knocking on your door.
But then again I am not saying the conditions are the same as Katrina for regeneration, just an observation of the possibilities.

Yeah, I thought about this too. God forbid nothing of that magnitude of forming, but if the remnants keep firing convection, the environment will gradually improve as it traverses farther away from the influence of the TUTT to its north. Definitely not a system to take our attention from for sure!

[boca]

Tops are starting to warm

[Kingarabian]

Interesting developments today. This thread is alive thanks to the one and only Aric Dunn.

12z Euro Parallel and EPS don't show it much love.

[Weather150]

Anyone think it could get a mention by the NHC soon? I don't even know.

[northjaxpro]

Anyone think it could get a mention by the NHC soon? I don't even know.

I don't think it will get a mention tonight. However, if the convection sustains into tomorrow, then I suspect NHC may introduce some mention in the TWO. Also, the models also has to start showing some things too to pick up on this system regenerating for the NHC to start really focusing back on the remnants again.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Agree with you on that, nothing will get mentioned unless it can sustain the convection for an extended period of time.

[Aric Dunn]

Interesting developments today. This thread is alive thanks to the one and only Aric Dunn.

12z Euro Parallel and EPS don't show it much love.

We all know how models preform when something goes awry . Most models are not useful for cyclogenisis.

[Aric Dunn]

Despite any development.. just really want everyone to look at the convective pattern right now in IR. Its beautiful and amazing.

Ot shows soo many different levels of the atmosphere.

[AtlanticWind]

Despite any development.. just really want everyone to look at the convective pattern right now in IR. Its beautiful and amazing.

It is

[AJC3]

Stitched the 4 ASCAT panels together...

[Aric Dunn]

Stitched the 4 ASCAT panels together...

Definitely a bit of a conundrum.. at least worthy of mention in the two lol

[bamajammer4eva]

Below is the shear map for this. Currently has an ULL to its north inducing a lot of shear but moving WNW to better conditions as far as shear goes. Canadian and JMA do end up with a very weak closed low in the gulf from this.

[Aric Dunn]

00z euro has some what of a closed system coming into SE florida in a few days..

all in all .. we have a very sharp wave/closed circ producing a large amount of convection heading towards land. always worth it to keep an eye on and not declare its dead.

[bamajammer4eva]

Here are the Latest Models reflections of this



Canadian


JMA

[GCANE]

Shear will be dramatically decreasing in the next 24 hrs.
Looking at GFS Sounding to the west of the wave axis; its basic zero from surface to 250mb.
CAPE over 3000.
Still forecasting mid layer RH about 50% but IMHO that may not pan out.
Afternoon convection firing over PR and DR may moisten that.
I think we may have a slight warm core, due to the fact there was a large, off-scale rain-rate cell embedded in the MCV at dusk.
Albeit, it didn't last too long but could easily contribute to a mid-layer temp anomaly due to latent heating.