ATL: TEN - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

12z HWRF says move along...nothing to see here.

[Happy Pelican]

The CMC certainly has my attention.

[Steve]

12z HWRF says move along...nothing to see here.

Haha. Wasn't that another one that was supposed to have long ago been ditched in favor of something more realistic?

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro initialized - much stronger vorticity than GFS and previous 00Z Euro:

[gatorcane]

24 hours:

[jlauderdal]

12z HWRF says move along...nothing to see here.

the same hwrf that blew this thing up, then moved it into cuba

[hd44]

Ecmwf initializes this as a tropical cyclone. Stronger than Harvey.

[gatorcane]

48 hours:

[Steve]

Ecmwf initializes this as a tropical cyclone. Stronger than Harvey.

I'm not seeing that. It's not even as strong as the trailing wave which is in at 1011. Harvey is at 1007. 92L is just a small circle under a 1016mb isobar.

[hd44]

Ecmwf initializes this as a tropical cyclone. Stronger than Harvey.

I'm not seeing that. It's not even as strong as the trailing wave which is in at 1011. Harvey is at 1007. 92L is just a small circle under a 1016mb isobar.

Correct but it shows it closed. But look at 850 wind it is strongest with 92l.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro 72 hours, not much left of it:

[Steve]

Ecmwf initializes this as a tropical cyclone. Stronger than Harvey.

I'm not seeing that. It's not even as strong as the trailing wave which is in at 1011. Harvey is at 1007. 92L is just a small circle under a 1016mb isobar.

Correct but it shows it closed. But look at 850 wind it is strongest with 92l.

Yeah, it's got a little bit of red in the wind field, but ECMWF loses all 3 systems by 72 hours and has 92L's pressure the highest of the 3 (weakest). It's not been any good so far with these 3, and I don't expect much out of It --> not that I think anything major is going to necessarily come out of any of the 3, but you'd expect Harvey to be something in the W Caribbean more than what EC is showing.

[SouthFLTropics]

At 96 hours the vorticity is ever so slightly better in the Bahamas versus the 00z run.

[gatorcane]

Euro has the wave moving through SE Florida hour 120.

[alienstorm]

It has a Thundershower coming through UNREAL

[adam0983]

That's the best model yet for Florida. Just a Little rain and wind. People are on here saying just a rain shower coming. And some people are saying unreal. I guess you want devastation and destruction this is not right to say. This is a model page and stopping wishing for a disaster here in Florida or anywhere else. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[sma10]

Hey the JMA at least gives 92L a little love:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

[SouthFLTropics]

That's the best model yet for Florida. Just a Little rain and wind. People are on here saying just a rain shower coming. And some people are saying unreal. I guess you want devastation and destruction this is not right to say. This is a model page and stopping wishing for a disaster here in Florida or anywhere else. Just an opinion not a forecast.

I don't believe anyone here is wishing for destruction on any location. However, I think the unreal comments stem from the fact that we aren't seeing what is on the models in the Bahamas that is preventing development. The road to get there is tough through the ULL, but once there the environment from most recent models shows that it isn't that bad. That's the unreal part to many.

[sma10]

That's the best model yet for Florida. Just a Little rain and wind. People are on here saying just a rain shower coming. And some people are saying unreal. I guess you want devastation and destruction this is not right to say. This is a model page and stopping wishing for a disaster here in Florida or anywhere else. Just an opinion not a forecast.

I don't believe anyone here is wishing for destruction on any location. However, I think the unreal comments stem from the fact that we aren't seeing what is on the models in the Bahamas that is preventing development. The road to get there is tough through the ULL, but once there the environment from most recent models shows that it isn't that bad. That's the unreal part to many.

I'm guessing that the pertinent difference is that the Euro/GFS sees the system being ripped to shreds. You can see why the CMC maintains and strengthens 92L by the shear maps. While the GFS shows the ULL as being stout and persistent, the CMC shows 92L giving it a beat down and winning the battle.

[gatorcane]

18Z guidance - big shift north aimed at SE Florida and Bahamas. Intensity guidance continues to go up: