ATL: TEN - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

UKMET bullish again:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 24.7N 74.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.08.2017 84 24.7N 74.6W 1012 28
1200UTC 22.08.2017 96 25.4N 76.8W 1010 28
0000UTC 23.08.2017 108 25.5N 77.8W 1007 29
1200UTC 23.08.2017 120 25.7N 78.3W 1000 41
0000UTC 24.08.2017 132 25.8N 78.3W 992 50
1200UTC 24.08.2017 144 26.1N 78.0W 985 58

Notice the coordinates from 108 to 144. Not much movement. Pretty much indicates a stall which is what I'm also seeing from the CMC right now. My guess it that it stalls and waits for the trough to sweep it out. At least that's what I'm taking from the CMC and the UKMET.

[Bocadude85]

UKMET bullish again:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 24.7N 74.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.08.2017 84 24.7N 74.6W 1012 28
1200UTC 22.08.2017 96 25.4N 76.8W 1010 28
0000UTC 23.08.2017 108 25.5N 77.8W 1007 29
1200UTC 23.08.2017 120 25.7N 78.3W 1000 41
0000UTC 24.08.2017 132 25.8N 78.3W 992 50
1200UTC 24.08.2017 144 26.1N 78.0W 985 58

Looks to be heading NNE at the end of the run.

[SouthFLTropics]

A stalled out vorticity in the Bahamas is something to be watched very closely. Jacquin comes to mind.

[gatorcane]

BIG shift west by CMC.

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC starts turning it WNW to NW at hour 144. Looks like it was waiting on the magic trough to arrive to sweep it away from Florida.

[SouthFLTropics]

Might catch the Outer Banks on the way out on this run.

[Bocadude85]

BIG shift west by CMC.

What's interesting is that the GFS has 92L move ashore in S.Fla on Tuesday...it is faster then the Canadian and the UKMET by almost 2 full days.

[hd44]

Might catch the Outer Banks on the way out on this run.

The system the model forms east of it... is not going to form in all likelyhood. That is causing it to go out to sea.

[SouthFLTropics]

Might catch the Outer Banks on the way out on this run.

The system the model forms east of it... is not going to form in all likelyhood. That is causing it to go out to sea.

Actually it is the trough swinging through the Midwest to the Northeast that erodes the ridge and will cause it to head out.

[sma10]

CMC starts turning it WNW to NW at hour 144. Looks like it was waiting on the magic trough to arrive to sweep it away from Florida.

Even if we agree with the stall idea, the margin of error at 120-144 hours is immense. The stall takes place at 78W ... but given the margin of error, the stall could just as easily occur at 76W or 80W.

[SouthFLTropics]

Misses the Outer Banks but Cape Cod and Maine might be in play. Very similar to the 00z CMC last night.

[hd44]

Hit cape cod on it big storm.

[SouthFLTropics]

OUCH!!!

[gatorcane]

Amazing how these models have shifted so far north when yesterday night they were mostly centered around Cuba or through the Straits. The recurve east of Florida through Bahamas is definitely a possibility if it develops but far from certain at this point. Lots of model watching ahead.

[SouthFLTropics]

Amazing how these models have shifted so far north when yesterday night they were mostly centered around Cuba. The recurve east of Florida is definitely a possibility if it develops in the Bahamas but far from certain at this point.

Absolutely...it's a crap shoot right now. We've got through Florida scenarios, recurve scenarios, does develop, doesn't develop. Heck, we need a spreadsheet just to keep score.

[hd44]

Amazing how these models have shifted so far north when yesterday night they were mostly centered around Cuba. The recurve east of Florida is definitely a possibility if it develops in the Bahamas but far from certain at this point.

Absolutely...it's a crap shoot right now. We've got through Florida scenarios, recurve scenarios, does develop, doesn't develop. Heck, we need a spreadsheet just to keep score.

Models going very bad this year in tropics putrid really.

[nativefloridian]

Amazing how these models have shifted so far north when yesterday night they were mostly centered around Cuba. The recurve east of Florida is definitely a possibility if it develops in the Bahamas but far from certain at this point.

Absolutely...it's a crap shoot right now. We've got through Florida scenarios, recurve scenarios, does develop, doesn't develop. Heck, we need a spreadsheet just to keep score.

Models going very bad this year in tropics putrid really.

Flip-flopping like a fish out of water

[Steve]

Two straight hits on Rhode Island/Massachusetts from the CMC. That comes after 2 straight into AL/FL Panhandle. GFS still does almost nothing with it. I think the 3rd system does develop, but I don't see it that big or close to 92L. Also, the CMC is now not rolling the next high off the East Coast and instead kind of moves it south into Illinois rather than following the Low Pressure exiting the East Coast. I can believe the cold high, but there's no way that's not a block the way it resolves. I'd anticipate it would have gone in much farther south based on the outcome of that run. Watch it at 500mb and see for yourself:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=777

[Weather150]

I'm curious to see the 18z spaghetti model tracks for 92L.

[Emmett_Brown]

The CMC run has a cyclonic loop in it that takes about a day to complete the loop near the Bahamas, which allows the trough time to dig, which is what causes the N turn before impacting the SE coast (although does impact NE). The 12z run gets a little closer to FL before turning N than 6z did. All of this pure guess work by the models anyway, but doesn't mean the SE coast is in the clear at all.