ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[Kazmit]

New update shows a hurricane in the BOC instead...

[Hammy]

How similar is the upper environment and structure to Diana in 1990? It's looking like the track so far could be fairly similar.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017

Visible satellite imagery continues to show a fairly well-organized
tropical cyclone, although infrared images indicate some warming of
the convective cloud tops. Observations from an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft show that the storm has a fairly broad inner core,
which is consistent with the ragged eye-like feature noted on the
visible imagery. The current intensity is kept at 50 kt based on a
blend of SFMR and flight-level observations from the aircraft along
with sampling considerations. Franklin has a well-defined,
symmetric upper-level outflow pattern, and some strengthening is
still expected prior to landfall. Although the cyclone could be near
hurricane strength at landfall on the east coast of the Yucatan
peninsula, the broad inner core of the system would argue against
rapid intensification during the next 12 hours. Weakening will occur
due to the passage over the Yucatan peninsula, and restrengthening
over the very warm waters of the Bay of Campeche is forecast.
Although northerly shear could inhibit strengthening somewhat,
Franklin is predicted to become a hurricane before making
landfall in mainland Mexico. The official intensity forecast is
similar to the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus forecast.

Based on center fixes from the aircraft along with geostationary
and microwave imagery, the initial motion is northwestward or
310/11 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains basically
unchanged. A mid-level high pressure area near the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico coast should force Franklin to take a
west-northwestward to westward course for the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 18.6N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 19.1N 87.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 08/1800Z 19.9N 89.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0600Z 20.3N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 09/1800Z 20.5N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 10/1800Z 20.5N 98.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[weathaguyry]

A more NW movement would mean less time over land

[tropicwatch]

Looking at the forecast cone, looks like it needs to start making that left turn

[Aric Dunn]

Well there are some higher winds..

[Airboy]

Looks like it will be a H soon, winds getting stronger.

[weathaguyry]

Wow, those are some pretty strong winds!

[GCANE]

Going well north of forecast points

[weathaguyry]

Wouldn't a more NW movement mean less time over land?

[GCANE]

Wow, those are some pretty strong winds!

Didn't look like they were in any strong cell either.

[GCANE]

Wow, those are some pretty strong winds!

Didn't look like they were in any strong cell either.

55 knots SFMR

[Aric Dunn]

pressure also down a couple MB ..

[tolakram]

Big pocket of dry air that needs to be worked out.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=6091&y=7058&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[GCANE]

Nice wall of towers firing off on the NE quad.

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

Core temp has increased 1C from the previous pass to the latest pass.

[Dean4Storms]

Definitely a more NW motion for now, that could change as its core nears the coast causing it to turn more westward.

[drezee]

Let me further explain. My guess is recon will find 999 pressure at 18z or so. Probably deepening at 1 mb per hour until 8pm then goes into RI or about 2 mb per hour for the next 8 hours before landfall. So worse case you have: 999mb - 6mb - 16mb ~ 977 mb worst case...in a case like this could be strong Cat 1

And recon has 999mb as I thought

3 hours of passes 3mb drop in pressure...like clockwork

The question will be will it get on shore in time. I still think RI starts at 0z...so far my call from 12z has been 100% on

[BobHarlem]

Showing up pretty well on Belize radar now:


Loop at http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?258