ATL: IRMA - Models

[KWT]

Well the GFS once again is coming in further north than the ECM, looks like a much more noticeable weakness between 120-168hrs which helps to lift 93L out, though upto 240hrs it is still heading NW.

Way too early to put any confidence in any model solution obviously, firstly lets see how the models do with handling any fomration of 93L. The models certainly have become less aggressive to start with and I think that is reasonable.

[Alyono]

new GFS way weaker. Wouldn't be surprised if this is a trend. If every wave would have developed like the models said, we'd have had 8 Cape Verde hurricanes this year

[RL3AO]

new GFS way weaker. Wouldn't be surprised if this is a trend. If every wave would have developed like the models said, we'd have had 8 Cape Verde hurricanes this year

Wonder what the issue will be with this one. No noticeable dust. Must be the subsidence to the west of the trough developing N of the CVIs.

[SouthFLTropics]

Is it just me or does the GFS seem to slow with the forward progress of 93L? Most systems have been scooting across the MDR at a pretty good clip this year.

[forecasterjack]

ECMWF depicts a very favorable intensification environment. I put the links in the discussion thread (oops). ECMWF depicts what would be just about the worst case situation for the east coast. BH strong enough to force it to the coast, then strong trough to pull it up.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Ens not showing a strong trough over the east coast. Not seeing a cutoff there atm.

[Alyono]

new GFS way weaker. Wouldn't be surprised if this is a trend. If every wave would have developed like the models said, we'd have had 8 Cape Verde hurricanes this year

Wonder what the issue will be with this one. No noticeable dust. Must be the subsidence to the west of the trough developing N of the CVIs.

we usually don't get significant development at the latitude the GFS and most models have it

[Kingarabian]

new GFS way weaker. Wouldn't be surprised if this is a trend. If every wave would have developed like the models said, we'd have had 8 Cape Verde hurricanes this year

Amen. 96 hours the models only have minimal development and we shouldn't be looking past that. In fact I've seen the GFS and the Euro drop systems that were modeled out less than 84 hours out.

[AubreyStorm]

Invest #93L
Watching it closely.

Next 10-14 days will be telling.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Ens not showing a strong trough over the east coast. Not seeing a cutoff there atm.

EPS i snatched off twitter not showing strong trough either to induce a negative tilt.
But it does show a cane re curving nne away from the coast on the run.Not land-falling.

Atl appears to be be on roll, 200mb is ideal for C/V easterly waves to keep rolling off.

[facemane]

18z GFS coming in much weaker. Hope this isn't another 92L or 99L.

I hope it is. if it does develop, I hope it turns NE into the North Atlantic graveyard.

[cycloneye]

00z guidance.

[AutoPenalti]

18z GFS coming in much weaker. Hope this isn't another 92L or 99L.

I hope it is. if it does develop, I hope it turns NE into the North Atlantic graveyard.

A weaker storm in the MDR, in some cases, means problems for the CONUS.

[gatorcane]

NAVGEM trending weaker:

[GeneratorPower]

18z GFS coming in much weaker. Hope this isn't another 92L or 99L.

I hope it is. if it does develop, I hope it turns NE into the North Atlantic graveyard.

A weaker storm in the MDR, in some cases, means problems for the CONUS.

Homegrown and/or delayed development storms make up a large percentage of those storms which affect the USA. As a child I remember watching the Tropical Update on the Weather Channel in the 80s. Storm after storm developed in the MDR and then recurved. Ivan made it all the way across in 2004 but started at extremely low latitude.

[Blown Away]

Nearly all storms that effect Fl from the E won't develop before @55W, same rule generally applies for mid Atlantic strikes, but a few developed farther E and striked mid Atlantic...

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS coming in with more development, similar track.

[blp]

00z GFS coming in with more development, similar track.

Much further SW so far. This is a different run. Looks closer to Euro.

[SouthFLTropics]

Big shift SW on the 00z GFS...trough not near as sharp this run.

[SouthFLTropics]

Uh oh...it might be stuck...not sure it escapes, trough looks to be retrograding...