ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

As time goes on I'd expect the GFS to trend further south towards a potential Caribbean cruiser scenario similar to what the Euro/UKMET has.

It also greatly deepens the midlatitude trough...but this is just one model run.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z HWRF running for the first time on 99L.

[Alyono]

likely recurve this time

But then again, this run is USELESS. It develops the wrong system

[TheStormExpert]

likely recurve this time

But then again, this run is USELESS. It develops the wrong system

So did the last few runs of the GFS.

[CrazyC83]

Does the 12Z GFS think it is August or October? That kind of trough seems unrealistic...

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like a recurve like the 06z ensembles favored.

[TheStormExpert]

Does the 12Z GFS think it is August or October? That kind of trough seems unrealistic...

There was an even much stronger trough on August 13th, 2004.

[Hurricaneman]

likely recurve this time

But then again, this run is USELESS. It develops the wrong system

Not the wrong system but wrong vortex due to feedback issues but the Euro might have a better clue

[RL3AO]

likely recurve this time

But then again, this run is USELESS. It develops the wrong system

More likely to be a weak system in the Caribbean than a strong system off the Outer Banks, at least IMO.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like a recurve like the 06z ensembles favored.

Looks a lot like Bill 2009 in this run. But I really don't have much faith this far out.

[TheStormExpert]

likely recurve this time

But then again, this run is USELESS. It develops the wrong system

More likely to be a weak system in the Caribbean than a strong system off the Outer Banks, at least IMO.

So you don't think this will become a hurricane?

[RL3AO]

So you don't think this will become a hurricane?

My bigger worry is that it says weak and gets into the Caribbean and then takes off. We will see since it's way too soon.

[TheStormExpert]

So you don't think this will become a hurricane?

My bigger worry is that it says weak and gets into the Caribbean and then takes off. We will see since it's way too soon.

Yeah the Euro has the right or close to right idea in terms of track but may be too weak, and the GFS has the wrong track idea but is way too strong and too soon in my opinion. The UKMET might be just right!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z HWRF bringing 99L down to 1001mb by 45 hours.

[WeatherEmperor]

12z HWRF bringing 99L down to 1001mb by 45 hours.

Do you have the HMON as well?


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[Blown Away]

The Sal was worse back in June but its still a little dry.
The early recurve tracking models must also be assuming early development?

Most of GFS runs have 99L well N of the NE Caribbean which almost always clears Florida, reduces a mid Atlantic strike, and makes fish storm likely.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z HWRF bringing 99L down to 1001mb by 45 hours.

Do you have the HMON as well?


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Doesn't appear to have run yet, at least not on tropicaltidbits.

[Siker]

Nearly unanimous 12z GEFS support; centered around the op.

[wxmann_91]

With the ECMWF dropping it I have lost some faith in this being more than a TD or a weak TS. Just an opinion of course, and the ECMWF is not always right.

But a majority of its ensembles develop it and they have been for a while now.

Most of the Euro ensembles though are weak. I think it's important to keep perspective (not directed at you, but just to the general crowd) that something like a mid-level TS is the most likely solution till we get strong evidence for the contrary.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z HWRF shows a similar genesis to the GFS, combines 99L with the wave out front, and brings it down to 991mb by 81 hours.