ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[RL3AO]

:uarrow: Despite the lack of what you describe,the structure looks impressive.

There also doesn't appear to be anything to stop convection from developing tonight. Seems to be plenty of surface convergence and no real mid-level dry air.

[WeatherEmperor]

:uarrow: Despite the lack of what you describe,the structure looks impressive.

There also doesn't appear to be anything to stop convection from developing tonight. Seems to be plenty of surface convergence and no real mid-level dry air.

With such a great structure, perhaps the DMAX overnight tonight can help blow up some convection?


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[abajan]

:uarrow: Despite the lack of what you describe,the structure looks impressive.

Very impressive circulation evident in that shot. I'm starting to wonder if this is going to bomb overnight and catch most of us in the Antilles off-guard.

[CrazyC83]

If it doesn't start gaining latitude, it's going to end up slamming into South America.

[cycloneye]

The Sun has set over 92L so from now let's see if convection fires over the impressive structure.

[CrazyC83]

The Sun has set over 92L so from now let's see if convection fires over the impressive structure.

If it becomes a TC in its position, it's also the southernmost Atlantic system (at least in the satellite era), correct?

[abajan]

The Sun has set over 92L so from now let's see if convection fires over the impressive structure.

If it becomes a TC in its position, it's also the southernmost Atlantic system (at least in the satellite era), correct?

Surely, it would have to be. I can't recall any storm forming so close to the Equator.

[northjaxpro]

I am absolutely incredulous about this system.I can not ever recall seeing such a very impressive, well structured wave, now Invest 92L at this latitude this early in the season.

I do not see anything keeping this from becoming. T.S. Bret very soon. Invest 92L is in a very conducive environment, at least for the next 3-4 days.

This system and the current mess in the Northwest Caribbean, wow, what an interesting start to this hurricane season. Actually it kicked off earlier than this of course..

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I am absolutely incredulous about this system.I can not ever recall seeing such a very impressive, well structured wave, now Invest 92L at this latitude this early in the season.

I do not see anything keeping this from becoming. T.S. Bret very soon. Invest 92L is in a very conducive environment, at least for the next 3-4 days.

This system and the current mess in the Northwest Caribbean, wow, what an interesting start to this hurricane season. Actually it kicked off earlier than this of course..

2010 and 2007 both had invests that looked incredibly impressive at this latitude in June.

Very strong support from the 12z GEFS for this system too:

[Yellow Evan]

Dare I say it is almost classifiable right now?

[northjaxpro]

Thanks Kyle for providing those two examples. I forgot about those systems, but what we are seeing here is extremely rare with such a well organized system at this low latitude in mid -June.

[hurricanes1234]

Even in peak season, a system this far south is very rare, let alone in June when tropical waves themselves rarely organise and consolidate in any part of the open Atlantic.

So the result is that 92L is double rare.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Even in peak season, a system this far south is very rare, let alone in June when tropical waves themselves rarely organise and consolidate in any part of the open Atlantic.

So the result is that 92L is double rare.

92L's low latitude is the only reason it's alive. It's far enough south that it's able to avoid significant dry air and shear.

[northjaxpro]

Excellent observations Kyle.

[RL3AO]

Even in peak season, a system this far south is very rare, let alone in June when tropical waves themselves rarely organise and consolidate in any part of the open Atlantic.

So the result is that 92L is double rare.

On the other hand, waves won't be this far south during the peak of the season because the itcz is further north. Looking back, most threats to Trinidad and Tobago and South America are early in the season.

[alienstorm]

Good cluster around 7N 35 W

[hurricanes1234]

Even in peak season, a system this far south is very rare, let alone in June when tropical waves themselves rarely organise and consolidate in any part of the open Atlantic.

So the result is that 92L is double rare.

On the other hand, waves won't be this far south during the peak of the season because the itcz is further north. Looking back, most threats to Trinidad and Tobago and South America are early in the season.

That's true, oops. My bad.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I believe the current 92L analog map on tropical tidbits currently sums up our present situation:

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like a tropical depression looking at it but I believe this will get upped to 40/70

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%-60%

Satellite images indicate that an area of disturbed weather
associated with a tropical wave is located about 1800 miles east of
the southern Windward Islands. This disturbance has become
better organized today, and additional development is possible
during the next day or two before conditions become less favorable
for tropical cyclone formation. This system is expected to continue
moving toward the west at 15-20 mph over the tropical Atlantic
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.