ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Audrey2Katrina]

I am prepared for the worse but hoping for the best.Let's see how PR fares from this when it is all over as you know the power grid is not the best.

I doubt you remember me Cyclone, we had some doozy conversations after Katrina... been S2K since 2005, but a lot of issues kept me away for a while... just saying wishing everything turns out okay for you and for the Islands. Always being prepared is so important. Good luck!

[Audrey2Katrina]

Hi everybody,

Can you tell me for martinica. Here, in Martinica, nobody is ready... the population was warned tonight that the tracking of Maria was lower than expected. Tomorow morning, schools are closed but not business....

Dominica was said to be directly in the path and is about 15-20 miles south...either way Martinique would be getting a fairly solid hit. Hopefully this will be before she swells into a Major monster. Stay safe! Tell those folks they need to be prepared.

[madinina972]

Thanks a lot. What time do you think this will affect Martinique. Here the alert is for noon but it seems to me that it will happen before?

[Aric Dunn]

Hi everybody,

Can you tell me for martinica. Here, in Martinica, nobody is ready... the population was warned tonight that the tracking of Maria was lower than expected. Tomorow morning, schools are closed but not business....

Hi,

looking at the current motion from radar it is moving on a course from Martinique to Dominica and Guadalupe. However, it is expected to take a more wnw course and put Martinique on the south side. you should prepare for a possible more westerly motion and some higher winds could come ashore.

because of its current latitude. it is likely that the worst you would get is the southern eyewall... assuming it stayed on the current path. so just be ready for the worst. it will be a close call regardless.

[Alyono]

Thanks a lot. What time do you think this will affect Martinique. Here the alert is for noon but it seems to me that it will happen before?

you'll get some squalls in the morning, but any hurricane force winds would be in the mid afternoon

[madinina972]

thanks you so much.
It's not a good news because people here are not ready. Too long without cyclone in the island...
It's already rainning heavily.
Good night!

[Hammy]

you nailed it.. "another big blowup" . healthy yes. but if it were to be deepening rapidly you would see sustained convection in all quads.. not a big blow up one after another.

Could be a bit of shear still--15-20kts analyzed by UW.

Yes, though not immediately apparent from satellite.. I personally cant see any undercutting shear..

I'm not seeing any either, so it looks like a bit of relative motion-induced shear--Maria is moving fast slightly faster than the western edge of the cirrus outflow, and the convection to the west and southwest doesn't seem like it's expanding in any particular direction.

[Aric Dunn]

radar showing it's not gainning all too much latitude at the moment.

[Aric Dunn]

if the current motion persists.. its going to go over Martinique or between Martinique and Dominica

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... 3-96-1-100
sure looks a system in RI phase too me.

but i'm no sat scientist.

[Aric Dunn]

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso2-13-96-1-100
sure looks a system in RI phase too me.

but i'm no sat scientist.

Still having some convective issues.. likely some shear that is not analyzed. however it very likely a Cat 2.. 100 mph at the moment. maybe more.

[bob rulz]

Would be shocked if recon only found 90mph winds in that gigantic ball of convection.

[GCANE]

Northern eyewall is very strong.
Southern eyewall is struggling.
Appears 700mb vort is somewhat open.
Would explain the apparent "west" or "south-of-forecast-points" motion.

[GCANE]

Looks like the core has a tilt in the upper troposphere.
Still does not have the cold, high-lapse rate pocket just above the boundary layer.
Anticyclone appears just to the SW of the CoC.

[Sciencerocks]

I'd guess southerly or southwesterly shear has gotten to the core.

This should hold this system down from going to town.

[South Texas Storms]

Praying for everyone in the path of the storm. I hope everyone is prepared.

[GCANE]

Stable air entraining into Maria as indicated by the low CAPE area SW of the CoC.
Check the massive high CAPE air in the mid Carib.
Once Maria connects with it, she will literally explode.

[Gustywind]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...MARIA HEADED FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 59.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

[drezee]

I'm not sure the center is at 14.6N at 9z. I would estimate 14.3N now. Maybe it will be by the time recon gets there.

[redneck51]

I had been thinking about what a serious hurricane strike would do the debt restructuring processing in Puerto Rico...

You can be sure that 99.99% of the Puerto Rican people don't care a bit about that.
They see a ct 4 hurricane coming their way and prepare the best they can.