ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Sciencerocks]

Westward and 1003 mb for 24, 36 and 42 hours.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1800&fh=36

[Sciencerocks]

Westward through 60 hours. About the same position as the 18z.

[Alyono]

now the GFS keeps it... after we have a named storm

I wonder if they are inserting a synthetic vortex that can be better resolved by the model? Maybe that's why it is able to handle the storm after genesis

[stormlover2013]

Cmc

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

[Alyono]

north shift for UKMET

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ANALYSED POSITION : 13.1N 56.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.08.2017 0 13.1N 56.7W 1006 33
1200UTC 18.08.2017 12 13.1N 60.0W 1004 35
0000UTC 19.08.2017 24 13.4N 63.3W 1003 33
1200UTC 19.08.2017 36 13.9N 66.8W 1002 36
0000UTC 20.08.2017 48 14.4N 70.4W 1001 37
1200UTC 20.08.2017 60 14.6N 74.7W 997 43
0000UTC 21.08.2017 72 15.2N 78.8W 995 43
1200UTC 21.08.2017 84 15.3N 82.7W 992 48
0000UTC 22.08.2017 96 15.9N 85.6W 996 50
1200UTC 22.08.2017 108 16.2N 88.1W 996 46
0000UTC 23.08.2017 120 16.6N 89.7W 1000 30
1200UTC 23.08.2017 132 17.4N 91.2W 1002 29
0000UTC 24.08.2017 144 17.5N 93.1W 1005 22

[stormlover2013]

How much ?

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

[Cpv17]

The Euro is coming in farther north for Harvey through 96 hours.

[Cpv17]

Wow is all I can say about this Euro run.

[South Texas Storms]

Wow is all I can say about this Euro run.

Yep looks to be headed towards TX/LA as a hurricane in about 9 days.

[LarryWx]

The Euro is coming in farther north for Harvey through 96 hours.

And this tend continues as of hour 204 with a heading toward potential major trouble then as it is then aiming toward LA! Wow, what a track change from prior Euro runs!

Edit: It now looks like it is stalling and possibly about to make a left turn toward TX.

[hd44]

Very Opal like and Audrey on the Ecmwf with the north movement day 7 to 9 .

[South Texas Storms]

The Euro is coming in farther north for Harvey through 96 hours.

And this tend continues as of hour 204 with a heading toward potential major trouble then as it is then aiming toward LA! Wow, what a track change from prior Euro runs!

Edit: It now looks like it is stalling and possibly about to make a left turn toward TX.

Wow is right Larry. Quite the change. Looks like a major hurricane about to hit TX in 10 days.

[hd44]

Navgem looks Texas bound too and a handful of CMC ensembles.

[StormChaser75]

ecmwf going crazy for Harvey in the long range.

[Cpv17]

Unbelievable. People are in for one heck of a wake up call when they see this in the morning.

[hd44]

ecmwf going crazy for Harvey

How similar is it to Aubrey?

[hd44]

Unbelievable. People are in for one heck of a wake up call when they see this in the morning.

If you track noreaster's you come to realize that this is not much of a shift. I deal with this every winter 500 mile shifts in 1 run.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro hours 72-240. Massive shift north.



Let's see if the other models follow suit.

[hd44]

Ecmwf eps has stronger ridging than op... however you can see stronger troughing also appear on Cmc/ Navgem/ and Ecmwf op.