ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[CaliforniaResident]

I don't understand how the NHC seems to be so behind the intensity in their 5 day track. The models are showing a Cat 3 if not 4, and NHC has the max winds at 75 mph.

I'm not sure, I know Alonyo mentioned they love the LGEM model for intensity and it isn't quite as strong... but now most guidance has this under much better UL conditions the next few days as the upper anticyclone builds over it allowing for intensification. Perhaps they're worn out from tracking Harvey and Irma? I'm not sure, usually they're on top of things but they seem to really be lagging with Jose.

Do you think he could be the third consecutive named storm to make landfall as a major (perhaps between Outer Banks and the D.C area)?

[Ken711]

I don't understand how the NHC seems to be so behind the intensity in their 5 day track. The models are showing a Cat 3 if not 4, and NHC has the max winds at 75 mph.

because LGEM says so

Thank you.

[Aric Dunn]

low level structure still sitting roughly at 25 north.. still just drifting around despite the outflow and convection being sligly deciviing. ..

[wxman57]

A couple more west shifts this is aiming for the outer banks.

Not only the outer banks, but the NE too

All the tracks seems to be at least paralleling the east cost. What synoptic features are keeping it off shore?

The jet stream runs from Florida to Nova Scotia. The farther west Jose tracks, the closer to the jet core it gets and the more it is turned northward or NNE. Big question is how close to the coast will it track. All guidance suggests no closer than 200-300 miles.

[txwatcher91]

Not only the outer banks, but the NE too

All the tracks seems to be at least paralleling the east cost. What synoptic features are keeping it off shore?

The jet stream runs from Florida to Nova Scotia. The farther west Jose tracks, the closer to the jet core it gets and the more it is turned northward or NNE. Big question is how close to the coast will it track. All guidance suggests no closer than 200-300 miles.

It also seems to depend on how it interacts with the energy sitting over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast US. Recent runs have more interaction which pulls the system more N and NNW for a time. That is the key to a landfall vs just offshore track. Euro and GFS have only shifted 500+ miles west the past day or so Hopefully you can still pull that vacation off...

[RL3AO]

Looks like the outflow of Norma is making the eastern US trough a little slower and stronger. Probably a decent part of why we've seen the westward shifts.

[JaxGator]

Just finished doing a lot of the clean up from Irma, but still have some ways to go and I (and lot of folks in Flroida) want Jose to stay away please. Back to back last season to Irma is enough. Though the rest of the East Coast should still keep watching Jose closey. No rest for the hurricane weary...

['CaneFreak]

Great catch! Also the models were overweakening the storm as well.

Looks like the outflow of Norma is making the eastern US trough a little slower and stronger. Probably a decent part of why we've seen the westward shifts.

[OuterBanker]

Although the Euro is making me a little nervous I still think we are out of it. But, it could be an ideal situation for us here if it stays safely offshore.
We have a surfing competition that begins this Sunday for a week. Could provide some of the best waves ever.

http://www.surfesa.org/competition/easterns/

[hohnywx]

I don't understand how the NHC seems to be so behind the intensity in their 5 day track. The models are showing a Cat 3 if not 4, and NHC has the max winds at 75 mph.

11 AM forecast from the NHC seems to acknowledge, in part, the increase in intensity. Jose is now forecast to reach 85 MPH in 72 hrs.

[Aric Dunn]

Wow that was fast.. the convective pattern the last hour or so has inproved drastically. looks like thigs are becoming better stacked as a long curved band has recently nearly wrapped all the way around through the layers.

shear has dropped a lot as well..

[GCANE]

Looking at 8.4um
A Vortical Hot Tower may have started about 13:30Z and lasted about 2 hrs.
Appeared to have good helicity.
It peaked at about 15:00Z

[Ken711]

Not only the outer banks, but the NE too

All the tracks seems to be at least paralleling the east cost. What synoptic features are keeping it off shore?

The jet stream runs from Florida to Nova Scotia. The farther west Jose tracks, the closer to the jet core it gets and the more it is turned northward or NNE. Big question is how close to the coast will it track. All guidance suggests no closer than 200-300 miles.

I appreciate the explanation.

[txwatcher91]

CIMSS 200mb vort map shows the energy with Jose is becoming better stacked quickly and stronger. Earlier today it was displaced well to the south of Jose due to the shear, now the most recent update has it just a little to the south and much stronger. It appears the anticyclone is overhead now as forecast by the GFS which opens the door for Jose to really take off once he finishes stacking later today... Expect some fast deepening to occur tonight if trends hold.

[Alyono]

lost a LOT of organization today. Will likely be slow to reintensify. All banding features are gone

[txwatcher91]

lost a LOT of organization today. Will likely be slow to reintensify. All banding features are gone

Why do you say that? Microwave passes indicate solid banding in the low levels and upper levels, it's stacking per CIMSS analysis and shear is dropping as the anticyclone builds overhead. Raw T numbers are already starting to go back up and plenty of cold cloud tops too as outflow is expanding. What am I missing?

[Alyono]

lost a LOT of organization today. Will likely be slow to reintensify. All banding features are gone

Why do you say that? Microwave passes indicate solid banding in the low levels and upper levels, it's stacking per CIMSS analysis and shear is dropping as the anticyclone builds overhead. Raw T numbers are already starting to go back up and plenty of cold cloud tops too as outflow is expanding. What am I missing?

look at the convective pattern. Plus, those microwave centers are NOT the LLCs. That is the sheared off MLC

[txwatcher91]

lost a LOT of organization today. Will likely be slow to reintensify. All banding features are gone

Why do you say that? Microwave passes indicate solid banding in the low levels and upper levels, it's stacking per CIMSS analysis and shear is dropping as the anticyclone builds overhead. Raw T numbers are already starting to go back up and plenty of cold cloud tops too as outflow is expanding. What am I missing?

look at the convective pattern. Plus, those microwave centers are NOT the LLCs. That is the sheared off MLC

To my understanding the 37ghz passes show the low level structure better while the 85ghz show the upper levels, is that correct? If so the 37ghz passes today have exhibited some good banding on the south/east sides. Once this thing stacks it's off to the races and that's probably why most models show a steady pace of intensification starting tomorrow or Saturday. I agree the MLC is displaced to the south but the 37ghz passes Aric posted this morning showed good banding was forming at the surface.

[weathaguyry]

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017

The cloud pattern of Jose has become more symmetric this afternoon,
with the apparent center perhaps a little more centered in the
central dense overcast. Dvorak intensity estimates, however, are
unchanged from six hours ago, so the initial wind speed remains 60
kt. Visible imagery suggest some drier air has become entrained into
the circulation of the storm, with outflow boundaries noted in the
northern semicircle. This dry air should gradually mix out while
Jose remains over warm waters with light-to-moderate shear
conditions. This environment favors some strengthening over the
next few days, and the official forecast reflects this idea, lying
between the model consensus and the global models. In the longer
term, shear is forecast to increase and water temperatures should
moderate. Therefore, some weakening is probable at days 4 and 5,
and that is reflected in the official forecast.

Jose continues to move west-northwestward, now at about 7 kt. The
storm should turn northwestward by Saturday and northward by early
Monday while it moves around a ridge over the western Atlantic
Ocean. Model guidance, however, is not in good agreement on the
strength of that ridge, leading to some significant model
differences on this cycle. The leftmost global model is the UKMET,
which moves Jose significantly farther westward than the other
guidance in the short term, leading to a closer pass of Jose to
the Outer Banks. However, most of the rest of the guidance show the
northward turn starting earlier, leading to a more offshore track.
Given the UKMET's recent westward bias, the new NHC forecast will
put more weight on the GFS/ECMWF solutions, leading to very little
change to the previous track. It should be noted there is a fair
bit of spread in the global models and their ensembles, which does
not give me a lot of confidence in the long-term track forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the
northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the
mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions.

2. Jose could produce other direct impacts next week along portions
of the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward
to New England, but it is too soon to determine what those impacts
might be or where they could occur. Interests along U.S. east coast
from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the
progress of Jose during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 25.2N 67.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 25.6N 68.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 26.5N 70.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 27.5N 71.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 28.6N 72.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 30.7N 72.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 33.5N 72.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 36.5N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Ken711]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 142034
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017

The cloud pattern of Jose has become more symmetric this afternoon,
with the apparent center perhaps a little more centered in the
central dense overcast. Dvorak intensity estimates, however, are
unchanged from six hours ago, so the initial wind speed remains 60
kt. Visible imagery suggest some drier air has become entrained into
the circulation of the storm, with outflow boundaries noted in the
northern semicircle. This dry air should gradually mix out while
Jose remains over warm waters with light-to-moderate shear
conditions. This environment favors some strengthening over the
next few days, and the official forecast reflects this idea, lying
between the model consensus and the global models. In the longer
term, shear is forecast to increase and water temperatures should
moderate. Therefore, some weakening is probable at days 4 and 5,
and that is reflected in the official forecast.

Jose continues to move west-northwestward, now at about 7 kt. The
storm should turn northwestward by Saturday and northward by early
Monday while it moves around a ridge over the western Atlantic
Ocean. Model guidance, however, is not in good agreement on the
strength of that ridge, leading to some significant model
differences on this cycle. The leftmost global model is the UKMET,
which moves Jose significantly farther westward than the other
guidance in the short term, leading to a closer pass of Jose to
the Outer Banks. However, most of the rest of the guidance show the
northward turn starting earlier, leading to a more offshore track.
Given the UKMET's recent westward bias, the new NHC forecast will
put more weight on the GFS/ECMWF solutions, leading to very little
change to the previous track. It should be noted there is a fair
bit of spread in the global models and their ensembles, which does
not give me a lot of confidence in the long-term track forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the
northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the
mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions.

2. Jose could produce other direct impacts next week along portions
of the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward
to New England, but it is too soon to determine what those impacts
might be or where they could occur. Interests along U.S. east coast
from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the
progress of Jose during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 25.2N 67.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 25.6N 68.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 26.5N 70.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 27.5N 71.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 28.6N 72.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 30.7N 72.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 33.5N 72.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 36.5N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake