ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

A quick reminder that the College of Dupage GOES 16 imagery is probably the best to use now since it's far enough north.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-24-0

[TeamPlayersBlue]

A quick reminder that the College of Dupage GOES 16 imagery is probably the best to use now since it's far enough north.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-24-0

Oh wow, thanks for the heads up

[galvestontx]

Guys is it looking like a Texas coast landfall? Like from Matagorda to tex/lou border?

[mcheer23]

Dropped 10 percent..

But they said TS watch or warning could be issued later

[tailgater]

I think once we see a defined west wind north of the Yucatan they will call this something, storm, sub-tropical or depression. It is still pretty broad but consolidating, water temps are just warm enough and upper level conditions "Probably" will get better for intensification. I'd like to see it go somewhere where the rain is needed because I don't need another drop and just moved back in my house in Dec. from the August no named storm. 34 inches of the nastiest water you ever want to see.

[RL3AO]

Guys is it looking like a Texas coast landfall? Like from Matagorda to tex/lou border?

Maybe but almost all of the impacts will be to the east of landfall.

[RL3AO]

Another visible satellite loop from GOES 16

http://imgur.com/a/3wNmL

[tolakram]

12Z Euro further NE. meet in the middle perhaps.

[Steve]

Guys is it looking like a Texas coast landfall? Like from Matagorda to tex/lou border?

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots
(93L)

Models are anywhere from SC LA to SE Texas (though a couple are farther east). Usually I would like to have made a call before this close in, but it's just uncertain due to possible erratic movement in conjunction with interactions with other features (the two highs, the NC Gulf Trough and the ULL in the SW Gulf). My best guess at the moment is somewhere between Freeport and Vermillion Bay with a narrowed down area of Jamaica Beach to the Sabine River. It could still come up farther East - maybe as far east as Terrebonne Bay, Louisiana (Cocodrie, LA) if the GFS was right. But the fact that it's been migrating landfall westward, I'd expect that trend to continue for a couple more runs.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO: 80%-80% Plane will go to 93L late this afternoon.

A broad area of low pressure extends from north of the Yucatan
Peninsula across adjacent portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico.
This system is producing a large area of disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity well east and northeast of the low over much
of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. While this system does not have a
well-defined surface circulation, satellite wind data indicate that
tropical-storm-force winds are occuring in a band 100 to 150 miles
northeast of the broad low. Upper-level winds are expected to be
marginally conducive for some additional development of this system
during the next day or two while it moves northward to northwestward
into the central Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical or subtropical
cyclone is likely to form during that time. Regardless of
development, interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central
Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the
progress of this system, as a tropical storm watch or warning could
be needed for portions of this area later today.

Also, heavy rains are expected to continue over portions of Central
America, the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba,
the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula, and spread into central and
eastern portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast during the next day or two.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system this afternoon. For more information on this
system, please see the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[tolakram]

Looks a little stronger this run, and a tad east.

[jasons2k]

Wonder if this will be another Claudette...I keep looking at that one...

[davidiowx]

Wonder if this will be another Claudette...I keep looking at that one...

Are you referring to the 1979 one that flooded Houston pretty good?

[OuterBanker]

Wow, what a mess. West movement will let FL off the hook. If this headed nne instead Floridians would need to build an ark.

[cycloneye]

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system late this afternoon.

[Steve]

HRRR has it at 993mb in 18 hours from the 16z run. That would be tomorrow around 8am. That's decent intensification. I don't watch the rapid update stuff that much because it doesn't go out far enough for what I usually want. But the closeness into land and landfall that 93L represents makes this a decent model to follow since it has updates every hour for the next 18.

[chaser1]

My overall take on 93L is, that a broad low level center is finally beginning to coalesce around at point close to 23.5N & 89W. I still think it'll need at least another full 24 hrs before convection starts to wrap around it's south & west side. Thereafter, i'd guess the South to Central Texas coast will be where landfall will occur. Of course, points north of there may be equally susceptible to a serious (rain) dumping. Probably top out at 60mph but it wouldn't shock me if it were to flirt with strong T.S. and p~o~s~s~i~b~l~y minimal Hurricane intensity either.

[AJC3]

Another visible satellite loop from GOES 16

http://imgur.com/a/3wNmL

Talk about a swirl-fest - Not only have there been multiple swirls in the northern quadrant, look toward the south end of the trough.

I've tracked 2-3 swirls on the Belize radar since this morning.

http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composit ... 1497884102

[poof121]

Anyone seen this buoy that has a camera on it? Seems to be fairly near the overall center...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

[ronyan]

I have a bad feeling the center of this will pass directly over my location giving no rain. Will see how low the pressure gets at least.