ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

It's really difficult to upload images on storm2k

[jason1912]

HWRF is coming in stronger than 12z so far.

[WeatherEmperor]

It's really difficult to upload images on storm2k

This is why I only use Tapatalk from my smartphone when browsing through Storm2k. Uploading images is cake


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[Siker]

What do the numbers next to the low pressure points mean?

I have literally no idea. Nothing I've hypothesized makes sense.

[RL3AO]

It's really difficult to upload images on storm2k

Imgur is pretty easy IMO. In fact Chrome even has extensions where you can just right click and upload an image from a website to Imgur. I'm sure Firefox has something similar, but I haven't used it in some time.

[Kingarabian]

18Z GFS shows a sheared system

Conditions according to the models will be MORE HOSTILE as this approaches the Caribbean. It has its most favorable conditions now

UKMET actually has this as a weak TD before strengthening near the islands, about 75 miles north of the islands. You don't have access to non-public UKMET data, right?

UKMET has what looks like a moderate TS hearing WNW by D7, FYI.

UKMET has been pretty questionable this season.

[Nimbus]

18Z HWRF keeps 99l weak till about -41W then sharp pressure drop to 990 mb near -46w.
Sounds reasonable.

[WeatherEmperor]

UKMET actually has this as a weak TD before strengthening near the islands, about 75 miles north of the islands. You don't have access to non-public UKMET data, right?

UKMET has what looks like a moderate TS hearing WNW by D7, FYI.

UKMET has been pretty questionable this season.

+1 on this. Especially with 99L, it has flip flopped a few times between strong development and little to no development.


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[Siker]

It's really difficult to upload images on storm2k

Imgur is pretty easy IMO. In fact Chrome even has extensions where you can just right click and upload an image from a website to Imgur. I'm sure FIrefox has something similar, but I haven't' used it in some time.

Imgur used to be great on my phone too but has since become impossible to use. Been resisting downloading Tapatalk so I've been running without the capacity to upload images, explains the number of model descriptions lacking pictures I post.

[Hammy]

18Z HWRF keeps 99l weak till about -41W then sharp pressure drop to 990 mb near -46w.
Sounds reasonable.

How well has the HWRF performed this season? I remember it being hit or miss in 2015 (though the only one to get Danny's intensity right) and don't know about last year's performance.

[SFLcane]

Ah there we go..here is a close-up GFS blasting SFL and keys. Seems to be hinting at favorable conditions in SW Atlantic.

[grentz7721]

Staying on this from now on.

[Siker]

18Z HWRF keeps 99l weak till about -41W then sharp pressure drop to 990 mb near -46w.
Sounds reasonable.

How well has the HWRF performed this season? I remember it being hit or miss in 2015 (though the only one to get Danny's intensity right) and don't know about last year's performance.

I don't think it's been tested in the Atlantic much this year. Also this is a recently upgraded version, no idea what was changed.

[AutoPenalti]

Ah there we go..here is a close-up GFS blasting SFL and keys. Seems to be hinting at favorable conditions in SW Atlantic.

Wow, literally has all of Miami-Dade and Broward County on the NE end of it. That's deadly.

[SFLcane]

18z HWRF...

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

18z HWRF...

I find this unlikely the GFS and HWRF always overdue intensity with systems..... because of the size at most I expect a weak category 1 heading for the islands but don't expect any more than that..... Euro probably right on this one honestly !!!!

[AutoPenalti]

No change from 8pm



Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad and elongated area of low pressure is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity several hundred miles south and
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system has not become
better organized during the past 24 hours. However, environmental
conditions appear conducive for this system to consolidate and
develop during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the early or middle part of next week while moving
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Nimbus]

18Z HWRF keeps 99l weak till about -41W then sharp pressure drop to 990 mb near -46w.
Sounds reasonable.

How well has the HWRF performed this season? I remember it being hit or miss in 2015 (though the only one to get Danny's intensity right) and don't know about last year's performance.

Intensity forecast sounds reasonable I'm not sure I would trust a track south of the big islands through the Caribbean. 18z HWRF appears to be gaining enough latitude to put Puerto Rico on the "wee
ak side of a major hurricane.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

18Z HWRF keeps 99l weak till about -41W then sharp pressure drop to 990 mb near -46w.
Sounds reasonable.

How well has the HWRF performed this season? I remember it being hit or miss in 2015 (though the only one to get Danny's intensity right) and don't know about last year's performance.

INTENSITY forecast don't sound reasonable especially GFS and HWRF expect a strong tropical storm probably at best, dry air and movement speed will slow developement a little also it's a big size system so that's the main reason it will develop more Gradually alsof i expect a track closer to Hispaniola maybe even south !

Intensity forecast sounds reasonable I'm not sure I would trust a track south of the big islands through the Caribbean.

[WeatherEmperor]

18z Navgem continues to do nothing with 99L while continuing to develop 90L near the BOC




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