ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BZSTORM]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 172053
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

...MARIA BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...ADDITIONAL WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 57.5W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ENE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

[Aric Dunn]

they can get the data faster from the plane through radio communications before the set and dropsonde come out.

[CrazyC83]

It looks to be up a bit to 70 kt now, although the pressure has stabilized around 982.

[tolakram]

IR Loop
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso2-13-48-1-100

[Aric Dunn]

05000 1350N 05726W 6964 03023 9823 +157 +095 086007 010 022 001 03
205030 1352N 05727W 6973 03017 9830 +155 +107 082018 020 032 001 00
205100 1353N 05729W 6966 03027 9848 +140 +117 068026 033 059 005 00
205130 1354N 05730W 6973 03027 9878 +129 +127 064042 050 067 020 03
205200 1355N 05732W 6957 03058 9923 +115 //// 065055 057 070 021 05
205230 1357N 05733W 6957 03073 9951 +116 +116 062061 063 068 025 00
205300 1358N 05735W 6967 03067 9970 +106 +106 053058 060 063 022 00
205330 1358N 05735W 6967 03067 9983 +105 +105 055059 062 059 026 00
205400 1400N 05737W 6973 03083 9969 +105 +105 058056 058 057 009 00
205430 1402N 05739W 6967 03100 9987 +101 +101 054054 056 056 009 00

[Aric Dunn]

thats pretty telling ... from an hour ago..

[Aric Dunn]

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

A. Time of Center Fix: 17th day of the month at 20:49:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°47'N 57°26'W (13.7833N 57.4333W)

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 51kts (~ 58.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the S (181°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 269° at 50kts (From the W at ~ 57.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the S (179°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 983mb (29.03 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)

L. Eye Character: Open in the south, S
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles)

[Aric Dunn]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

A. Time of Center Fix: 17th day of the month at 20:49:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°47'N 57°26'W (13.7833N 57.4333W)

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 51kts (~ 58.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the S (181°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 269° at 50kts (From the W at ~ 57.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the S (179°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 983mb (29.03 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)

L. Eye Character: Open in the south, S
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles)

the eye increased from 20 nm to 28 nm this pass.. weird.

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

NW Eyewall is rockin.
Up to 25 mm/hr rain rate.
This may ramp tonight.

[GCANE]

There you go.

[GCANE]

Very high helicity
Going to really crank the surface winds.

[GCANE]

Those two towers are spewing a fast spreading anvil.
Layering on top of the CDO cirrus.
Here's an example of what it would look like.

[Alyono]

I still like Martinique and Dominica for the first land impacts. Don't think this will do much to the islands devastated by Irma. St. Croix could be a whole other storm, however. Their fate may be only marginally better than St. Thomas and St. John

[psyclone]

I still like Martinique and Dominica for the first land impacts. Don't think this will do much to the islands devastated by Irma. St. Croix could be a whole other storm, however. Their fate may be only marginally better than St. Thomas and St. John

Yeah it really looks to spread the misery a notch farther south and west...areas that got a close shave with Irma like Puerto Rico may get creamed while areas that got blasted by Irma may get a close shave with Maria.

[Aric Dunn]

you can clearly see the eyewall convection becoming better defined and sustained wwith a nice semi circle of overshooting tops.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and14.html

[sunnyday]

A couple of local mets said Maria should miss Fl. As always, things can change. Who agrees at this point?

[hurricaneCW]

Things are already looking ugly for the islands, Puerto Rico is likely to get a direct hit as well from a potential Category 3 or 4 storm.

[redneck51]

Things are already looking ugly for the islands, Puerto Rico is likely to get a direct hit as well from a potential Category 3 or 4 storm.

Thanks for thinking of us islanders.
After pages of speculations about a CONUS landfall it's good to see that somebody cares about what's about to happen here in the Caribbean.