ATL: HARVEY - Models

[cycloneye]

High pressure is strong that goes to Nicaragua.

[Steve]

Yeah, but it's just a pulse up because it later weakens all 3 systems. Up to 132 hours, 91L has reduced from 1004mb low to a circle on the map heading for Central America. 92L drops to 1008mb then goes North of the Islands into a spot just East of Puerto Rico. 93L (not yet being investigated) gets to 1008mb before it loses it, and it appears to be heading for a recurve though the high is still pretty strong across the Atlantic. It gets it back as a 1011mb low heading for islands with a giant new low just off the African Coast at 144 hours.

Plausible? Yeah. Likely? ?

[GCANE]

Latest COAMPS showing a decent increase in Enthalpy flux as it gets into the Mid Carib
This could be one of those West-Carib Bad Boys.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm not trusting any of these model runs until we have an LLC and the true strength of the storm is initialized into them. The deeper the storm the more likely a gain in latitude and vice versa. None of them really nailed Gert just a few days out.

[ConvergenceZone]

Honest question. What would be your seasonal forecast right now? How many storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes for 2017? I'm curious what you'd view a quiet season as.

I think we are pretty fortunate to have seen as many storms develop as we have. I don't think it's going too be near as actively crazy as weather dot com has led us to believe. Not a chance! The hugh Sal outbreak was obviously not forecasted when that prediction was made. Even Mets on here have commented how unusually strong it is this year

[cycloneye]

ECMWF develops 91l on same track as GFS.

[cycloneye]

96 hours.

[Nimbus]

1006 MB's mid Caribbean would tend to enforce the idea that the shear won't be insurmountable.
There is subtropical ridging moving west at the same speed as 91L which will dictate the shear forecast. Western Caribbean is where the weaker storms usually spin up and start gaining latitude.
NHC only had a 40% chance of development in the 5 day window not sure what models they are favoring.

[cycloneye]

Wow,same area as GFS to Nicaragua.

[stormlover2013]

JMA run

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=370

[cycloneye]

[SoupBone]

Let's hope this trend continues. Looks like it would bury itself. Does it emerge and reform in the Pacific on any runs?

[OuterBanker]

91L son of Franklin
92L daughter of Gert

Really weird how models are depicting each isn't it.

[gatorcane]

The UKMET was the first model that had this heading straight west across the Caribbean into Central America. Kudos to that model as other models appear to be following. Here is what it is showing for 91L in its latest run.

[Nimbus]

There is a paradox though, high pressure ridging that would steer 91L into the Mexican desert would also steer 92L through Miami across Florida and up into the northern gulf.

[stormlover2013]

Still long ways to go

[SoupBone]

There is a paradox though, high pressure ridging that would steer 91L into the Mexican desert would also steer 92L through Miami across Florida and up into the northern gulf.

Or 92L follows Gert.

[bubba hotep]

This really could go in any of the invest discussions but good luck to the models trying to resolve this...

 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/897587484028260352

[ROCK]

12z NAVGEM is drinking the Koolaid...ie it doesn't crash into CA.

[Alyono]

0Z GFS MUCH weaker so far