ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[AJC3]

As of 18:07 UTC Jun 19, 2017:
Aircraft Position: 8.60°N 58.92°W
Bearing: 270° at 237 kt
Altitude: 297 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 6 kt at 161°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1010.7 mb

175800 0826N 05829W 9766 00305 //// +224 //// 162007 008 021 000 01
175830 0826N 05831W 9771 00301 0112 +225 +219 172007 008 018 001 03
175900 0827N 05832W 9773 00298 0112 +225 +217 182006 007 017 001 03
175930 0828N 05834W 9770 00301 0112 +225 +220 179004 006 017 000 03
180000 0828N 05835W 9769 00302 0113 +224 +220 167003 004 016 000 03
180030 0829N 05837W 9770 00301 0112 +225 +216 191002 003 017 000 03
180100 0828N 05838W 9770 00302 0113 +225 +211 243002 002 010 001 00
180130 0827N 05839W 9772 00301 0113 +225 +214 309001 002 016 000 03
180200 0827N 05841W 9761 00308 0112 +222 +219 110003 005 /// /// 05
180230 0828N 05842W 9772 00299 //// +216 //// 132005 005 014 002 01
180300 0830N 05843W 9772 00299 0113 +225 +214 141004 005 015 001 03
180330 0831N 05843W 9772 00301 0113 +224 +217 175003 004 014 001 05
180400 0832N 05845W 9779 00292 0111 +222 +220 209003 004 021 001 05
180430 0833N 05846W 9768 00301 0111 +224 +218 211005 006 021 001 03
180500 0833N 05848W 9770 00299 0110 +225 +216 217008 009 022 002 00
180530 0834N 05849W 9770 00298 0111 +221 +218 181005 007 031 012 00
180600 0834N 05850W 9768 00299 0111 +216 //// 140005 006 036 012 01
180630 0835N 05852W 9773 00294 0110 +216 //// 125005 006 028 003 01
180700 0836N 05853W 9772 00294 0109 +222 +218 149005 005 026 001 00
180730 0836N 05855W 9769 00297 0107 +225 +218 161006 006 025 001 03

It looks like those are the same 3 image links in every post, which really does no good, since they will continually update to the last image posted, even in the older posts. You probably want to save those images each time and upload them to imgur.

[TheStormExpert]

Not naming a 60mph Tropical Storm is HUGE in my opinion. Obviously the system is so compact that the HH are missing it.

[SouthDadeFish]

It's pretty debatable if the circulation recon just found is organized enough to be classified as a TC. The trend on satellite suggests it is in the process of wrapping up, so if recon hangs around long enough, maybe they will sample a more organized circulation.

[Hammy]

well they found a little something.. though I think thats more likely the zero point for lack of a better term. where the forward motion and the wind speeds are equal .. they should go a tad more north..

If they close it off enough to upgrade it looks like right about here is where those west winds are. Will they go north at any point?

[AutoPenalti]

Not naming a 60mph Tropical Storm is HUGE in my opinion. Obviously the system is so compact that the HH are missing it.

Well, it wouldn't be the first time right?

[SouthDadeFish]

Not naming a 60mph Tropical Storm is HUGE in my opinion. Obviously the system is so compact that the HH are missing it.

I don't think that's the issue here. It's just not a well-organized system at the moment. A name or not won't change the impacts of the storm. Residents in the path of the storm should prepare for TS-force winds and heavy rainfall.

[weathaguyry]

Wide View: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF300-0102A-INVEST.png

Smaller View: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF300-0102A-INVEST_zoom.png

Flight Data: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF300-0102A-INVEST_timeseries.png

As of 18:17 UTC Jun 19, 2017:
Aircraft Position: 8.62°N 59.28°W
Bearing: 90° at 119 kt
Altitude: 294 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 8 kt at 233°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1010.7 mb

180800 0837N 05857W 9770 00297 0106 +227 +219 179006 007 022 002 00
180830 0836N 05858W 9769 00296 0107 +220 +218 148006 007 021 003 00
180900 0836N 05900W 9772 00294 //// +220 //// 129007 007 018 001 05
180930 0836N 05901W 9770 00297 0107 +219 +219 126007 008 014 001 01
181000 0836N 05903W 9773 00293 0107 +219 +216 145005 006 015 001 03
181030 0836N 05905W 9770 00296 0107 +222 +211 182003 005 012 001 00
181100 0836N 05906W 9770 00294 0106 +223 +204 133001 002 012 001 00
181130 0836N 05908W 9772 00294 0106 +222 +205 037001 001 018 000 00
181200 0836N 05909W 9770 00294 0106 +221 +211 318001 002 017 000 03
181230 0836N 05911W 9770 00294 //// +218 //// 298002 003 017 002 01
181300 0835N 05912W 9768 00298 //// +216 //// 277002 002 023 001 05
181330 0835N 05914W 9772 00293 //// +219 //// 244004 005 024 001 05
181400 0835N 05915W 9771 00294 0106 +218 //// 266004 005 025 002 01
181430 0835N 05917W 9772 00293 0105 +221 //// 281004 005 026 003 01
181500 0835N 05919W 9770 00293 //// +219 //// 349005 006 026 003 01
181530 0835N 05920W 9782 00285 0106 +223 //// 000006 006 030 002 05
181600 0836N 05921W 9768 00297 0107 +224 +224 343002 005 /// /// 03
181630 0837N 05920W 9764 00302 0108 +221 //// 297004 004 022 004 01
181700 0837N 05918W 9771 00296 0108 +222 //// 278003 004 023 004 01
181730 0837N 05917W 9770 00294 0107 +219 //// 233006 008 023 003 01

[weathaguyry]

Anybody else want to take over?

[Alyono]

this is NOT a 50 kt system. Those SFMR winds are clearly in error. Not in the accepted range

Some here really have to stop using the often bogus auto flagging on the SFMR. It only works half the time

This is, in my professional opinion, based upon the recon, a 35-40 kt TS. Nothing more

[CrazyC83]

Matthew had 50-60 mph winds for a day or so before it closed off a circulation. Obviously the conditions ahead are completely different, but there is precedence.

[weathaguyry]

As of 18:07 UTC Jun 19, 2017:
Aircraft Position: 8.60°N 58.92°W
Bearing: 270° at 237 kt
Altitude: 297 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 6 kt at 161°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1010.7 mb

175800 0826N 05829W 9766 00305 //// +224 //// 162007 008 021 000 01
175830 0826N 05831W 9771 00301 0112 +225 +219 172007 008 018 001 03
175900 0827N 05832W 9773 00298 0112 +225 +217 182006 007 017 001 03
175930 0828N 05834W 9770 00301 0112 +225 +220 179004 006 017 000 03
180000 0828N 05835W 9769 00302 0113 +224 +220 167003 004 016 000 03
180030 0829N 05837W 9770 00301 0112 +225 +216 191002 003 017 000 03
180100 0828N 05838W 9770 00302 0113 +225 +211 243002 002 010 001 00
180130 0827N 05839W 9772 00301 0113 +225 +214 309001 002 016 000 03
180200 0827N 05841W 9761 00308 0112 +222 +219 110003 005 /// /// 05
180230 0828N 05842W 9772 00299 //// +216 //// 132005 005 014 002 01
180300 0830N 05843W 9772 00299 0113 +225 +214 141004 005 015 001 03
180330 0831N 05843W 9772 00301 0113 +224 +217 175003 004 014 001 05
180400 0832N 05845W 9779 00292 0111 +222 +220 209003 004 021 001 05
180430 0833N 05846W 9768 00301 0111 +224 +218 211005 006 021 001 03
180500 0833N 05848W 9770 00299 0110 +225 +216 217008 009 022 002 00
180530 0834N 05849W 9770 00298 0111 +221 +218 181005 007 031 012 00
180600 0834N 05850W 9768 00299 0111 +216 //// 140005 006 036 012 01
180630 0835N 05852W 9773 00294 0110 +216 //// 125005 006 028 003 01
180700 0836N 05853W 9772 00294 0109 +222 +218 149005 005 026 001 00
180730 0836N 05855W 9769 00297 0107 +225 +218 161006 006 025 001 03

It looks like those are the same 3 image links in every post, which really does no good, since they will continually update to the last image posted, even in the older posts. You probably want to save those images each time and upload them to imgur.

Sorry about that, I'll use imgur next time

[Hammy]

this is NOT a 50 kt system. Those SFMR winds are clearly in error. Not in the accepted range

Some here really have to stop using the often bogus auto flagging on the SFMR. It only works half the time

This is, in my professional opinion, based upon the recon, a 35-40 kt TS. Nothing more

Are you thinking they'll find the data sufficient for upgrade?

[Alyono]

landfall tonight in Venezuela. Last storm to do this... Bret

[MississippiWx]

Latest image from GOES 15 at 18:15UTC is impressive. Can't post image from phone.

[msbee]

latest Storm Carib weather observations from Trinidad and Tobago as well as Grenada.
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... idad.shtml
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/grenada.shtml

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 191838
AF300 0102A INVEST HDOB 28 20170619
182800 0835N 05843W 9770 00297 0108 +221 +218 213009 010 018 002 01
182830 0835N 05842W 9773 00294 0109 +222 +216 189005 008 021 001 00
182900 0835N 05840W 9770 00297 0108 +225 +213 197005 006 009 002 00
182930 0835N 05838W 9772 00296 0109 +225 +213 192004 005 013 001 00
183000 0835N 05837W 9772 00296 0108 +225 +211 198005 007 010 002 00
183030 0835N 05835W 9771 00297 0109 +225 +212 185009 010 015 000 00
183100 0835N 05834W 9772 00296 0108 +222 +217 184008 010 012 001 00
183130 0835N 05832W 9772 00297 0109 +224 +219 178009 010 010 004 00
183200 0835N 05830W 9770 00297 0108 +225 +218 180011 011 019 000 00
183230 0835N 05829W 9766 00303 0110 +223 +215 180011 012 019 000 00
183300 0835N 05827W 9772 00296 0109 +222 +220 180009 011 020 001 05
183330 0835N 05826W 9771 00296 0107 +222 +213 177014 015 021 001 01
183400 0835N 05824W 9772 00293 0108 +213 +211 175015 017 026 002 01
183430 0835N 05823W 9771 00297 0111 +206 //// 166018 019 025 003 01
183500 0835N 05821W 9770 00297 0108 +217 +212 165017 018 026 002 03
183530 0835N 05820W 9770 00297 0109 +220 +209 170017 018 024 001 00
183600 0835N 05818W 9770 00296 0106 +220 +206 181015 015 022 000 00
183630 0835N 05816W 9770 00294 0105 +220 +204 175015 016 020 000 03
183700 0835N 05815W 9770 00292 0104 +220 +203 173016 016 021 001 00
183730 0835N 05813W 9772 00292 0104 +221 +205 172016 016 023 000 03
$$
;

[chaser1]

(Previously incorrectly posted under the TWO Model page)

Just have to say it.... "Potential Tropical Cyclone" ????? How 'bout "Theoretical Squall Line", or "Visually Foreboding Winter Event". I get the point that forecasters feel this new nomenclature better allows advisories and warnings to be issued. Call me old fashioned though but seems to me that simply issuing a "Tropical Weather Hazard Alert" would be just as efficient. "Potential Tropical "Cyclone" just sounds like "You Could Get Tropical Storm Force Conditions, But We're Just Not Sure" lol. Sorry..... just had to get that off my chest

As for the system itself? Impressive that it's occurring in June, at it's low latitude, and in spite of its forward motion. My guess is that it will fall short of attaining characteristics that truly define a T.S. (but that doesn't mean it won't get named )

[SouthDadeFish]

Latest image from GOES 15 at 18:15UTC is impressive. Can't post image from phone.

Agreed:



Banding features are becoming more established.

[Hammy]

Looks like they're not going to upgrade--flight path tells me they're going to skip a center pass.

[alienstorm]

Some west wind observed

Time: 18:14:00Z
Coordinates: 8.583N 59.250W
Acft. Static Air Press: 977.1 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 294 m (965 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1010.6 mb (29.85 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 266° at 4 kts (From the W at 4.6 mph)
Air Temp: 21.8°C* (71.2°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 5 kts (5.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 25 kts (28.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (0.08 in/hr)