ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

COD Visible

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso2-02-200-1-100

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z Best Track up to Hurricane.

AL, 15, 2017091718, , BEST, 0, 136N, 570W, 65, 986, H

That was before recon got there. So far, max of about 50 kts.

VDM showed SFMR of 64 knots.

[wxman57]

18z Best Track up to Hurricane.

AL, 15, 2017091718, , BEST, 0, 136N, 570W, 65, 986, H

That was before recon got there. So far, max of about 50 kts.

VDM showed SFMR of 64 knots.

Like I said, I don't trust SFMR winds that are a good bit higher than FL winds AND near heavy squalls. I still think they have a way to go in calibrating the SFMR.

[Gustywind]

Hurricane Maria seems to continue to organize. Spirals bands are more prononced, system is growing in size
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

[Aric Dunn]

Here we go.. NE pass .. very likely going to find plenty of Hurricane force winds..

[AubreyStorm]

She takes plenty time.

[1900hurricane]

The low flight level winds do look a little odd compared to the SFMR data, especially with the SFMR data coming near a convective burst, but other than that, I think I can believe the 64 kt SFMR. I ran KZC off of the 18Z data and ended up with 71 kt, which is in the ballpark of the SFMR reading. Microwave structure is also good enough to not make me discount the reading. It will be interesting to see if the flight level winds come up on the next pass or two.

[Dave C]

That ne quad looks plenty deep on microwave , should bring down strong winds to boundry layer.

[Aric Dunn]

That ne quad looks plenty deep on microwave , should bring down strong winds to boundry layer.

also that microwave was 5 plus hours ago.. the structure has improved a lot since then..

[NDG]

No hurricane force winds in the NE quadrant by the recon but stronger flight level winds that in the NW quadrant.

193100 1359N 05656W 6979 03096 0009 +100 //// 143058 060 047 005 01
193130 1358N 05657W 6965 03107 9988 +097 //// 142058 059 050 004 01
193200 1357N 05658W 6976 03089 9985 +096 //// 142060 061 052 004 01
193230 1355N 05658W 6964 03095 //// +095 //// 142062 063 052 003 01
193300 1354N 05659W 6975 03077 //// +100 //// 145060 062 053 004 01
193330 1353N 05700W 6973 03075 9960 +105 //// 147057 059 053 003 01
193400 1351N 05701W 6963 03078 9960 +105 //// 150055 057 052 005 01
193430 1350N 05702W 6970 03058 9926 +111 +111 152055 056 050 004 03
193500 1350N 05704W 6969 03056 9903 +122 +115 154054 055 054 003 00
193530 1349N 05705W 6975 03041 9883 +132 +115 159047 053 056 002 00
193600 1348N 05707W 6968 03038 9864 +137 +109 151034 044 057 003 00
193630 1347N 05709W 6968 03033 9845 +152 +085 139021 027 057 003 03

[Aric Dunn]

No hurricane force winds in the NE quadrant by the recon but stronger flight level winds that in the NW quadrant.

193100 1359N 05656W 6979 03096 0009 +100 //// 143058 060 047 005 01
193130 1358N 05657W 6965 03107 9988 +097 //// 142058 059 050 004 01
193200 1357N 05658W 6976 03089 9985 +096 //// 142060 061 052 004 01
193230 1355N 05658W 6964 03095 //// +095 //// 142062 063 052 003 01
193300 1354N 05659W 6975 03077 //// +100 //// 145060 062 053 004 01
193330 1353N 05700W 6973 03075 9960 +105 //// 147057 059 053 003 01
193400 1351N 05701W 6963 03078 9960 +105 //// 150055 057 052 005 01
193430 1350N 05702W 6970 03058 9926 +111 +111 152055 056 050 004 03
193500 1350N 05704W 6969 03056 9903 +122 +115 154054 055 054 003 00
193530 1349N 05705W 6975 03041 9883 +132 +115 159047 053 056 002 00
193600 1348N 05707W 6968 03038 9864 +137 +109 151034 044 057 003 00
193630 1347N 05709W 6968 03033 9845 +152 +085 139021 027 057 003 03

hmm interesting.. well they will have one more pass before the advisory.. so we will see what the NHC does.

[Aric Dunn]

Pressure appears to have dropped a couple MB possible.. have to wait for the dropsonde ..

[NDG]

No hurricane force winds in the NE quadrant by the recon but stronger flight level winds that in the NW quadrant.

193100 1359N 05656W 6979 03096 0009 +100 //// 143058 060 047 005 01
193130 1358N 05657W 6965 03107 9988 +097 //// 142058 059 050 004 01
193200 1357N 05658W 6976 03089 9985 +096 //// 142060 061 052 004 01
193230 1355N 05658W 6964 03095 //// +095 //// 142062 063 052 003 01
193300 1354N 05659W 6975 03077 //// +100 //// 145060 062 053 004 01
193330 1353N 05700W 6973 03075 9960 +105 //// 147057 059 053 003 01
193400 1351N 05701W 6963 03078 9960 +105 //// 150055 057 052 005 01
193430 1350N 05702W 6970 03058 9926 +111 +111 152055 056 050 004 03
193500 1350N 05704W 6969 03056 9903 +122 +115 154054 055 054 003 00
193530 1349N 05705W 6975 03041 9883 +132 +115 159047 053 056 002 00
193600 1348N 05707W 6968 03038 9864 +137 +109 151034 044 057 003 00
193630 1347N 05709W 6968 03033 9845 +152 +085 139021 027 057 003 03

hmm interesting.. well they will have one more pass before the advisory.. so we will see what the NHC does.

Pressure looks like it continues to drop, lets see what the VDM shows.

[Aric Dunn]

No hurricane force winds in the NE quadrant by the recon but stronger flight level winds that in the NW quadrant.

193100 1359N 05656W 6979 03096 0009 +100 //// 143058 060 047 005 01
193130 1358N 05657W 6965 03107 9988 +097 //// 142058 059 050 004 01
193200 1357N 05658W 6976 03089 9985 +096 //// 142060 061 052 004 01
193230 1355N 05658W 6964 03095 //// +095 //// 142062 063 052 003 01
193300 1354N 05659W 6975 03077 //// +100 //// 145060 062 053 004 01
193330 1353N 05700W 6973 03075 9960 +105 //// 147057 059 053 003 01
193400 1351N 05701W 6963 03078 9960 +105 //// 150055 057 052 005 01
193430 1350N 05702W 6970 03058 9926 +111 +111 152055 056 050 004 03
193500 1350N 05704W 6969 03056 9903 +122 +115 154054 055 054 003 00
193530 1349N 05705W 6975 03041 9883 +132 +115 159047 053 056 002 00
193600 1348N 05707W 6968 03038 9864 +137 +109 151034 044 057 003 00
193630 1347N 05709W 6968 03033 9845 +152 +085 139021 027 057 003 03

hmm interesting.. well they will have one more pass before the advisory.. so we will see what the NHC does.

Pressure looks like it continues to drop, lets see what the VDM shows.

first pass flight level was 985..

this pass FL is 982..

so possibly 983 for the center drop..

[NDG]

Down to 984 mb but more like 983 mb because of 20 knots surface wind at splash down.

RNT12 KNHC 171954
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL152017
A. 17/19:38:40Z
B. 13 deg 44 min N
057 deg 15 min W
C. 700 mb 2982 m
D. 57 kt
E. 065 deg 8 nm
F. 142 deg 63 kt
G. 056 deg 19 nm
H. 984 mb
I. 10 C / 3036 m
J. 18 C / 3041 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C20
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 0115A MARIA OB 14
MAX FL WIND 63 KT 056 / 19 NM 19:32:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 095 / 20 KT

[GCANE]

Drop in the eye just in
984 mb

[Aric Dunn]

looks like 984..

so a 2 mb drop in a hour.. not to shabby.. however it also had 20 kt of wind.. so maybe 983..

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

A. Time of Center Fix: 17th day of the month at 19:38:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°44'N 57°15'W (13.7333N 57.25W)

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 57kts (~ 65.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the ENE (65°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 142° at 63kts (From the SE at ~ 72.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 984mb (29.06 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,036m (9,961ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,041m (9,977ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)

L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast, SE
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

[RT23]

we have been watching this intently in Barbados, is it just me or has she take a west track over the last hr+??

[GCANE]