ATL: HARVEY - Models

[stormreader]

18Z GFS. Saved in first post of the thread.

Can we say that this GFS run represents an "outlier"?? That looks nothing like any of the other plots I've seen recently. Wild swings. I thought consensus was for building ridge in Atlantic???

[hcane27]

I truly doubt the "ridge-building" scenario. I just believe that there will enough trough intrusions in the western Atlantic to forego any U.S. east coast landfalls. There , I said it.

[stormreader]

I truly doubt the "ridge-building" scenario. I just believe that there will enough trough intrusions in the western Atlantic to forego any U.S. east coast landfalls. There , I said it.

Sounds like your basing that on the persistent troughing we've had this year....and perhaps like 2004 whom some have mentioned as a possible analog year.

[stormreader]

I truly doubt the "ridge-building" scenario. I just believe that there will enough trough intrusions in the western Atlantic to forego any U.S. east coast landfalls. There , I said it.

Sounds like your basing that on the persistent troughing we've had this year....and perhaps like 2004 whom some have mentioned as a possible analog year.

Better correct myself though. When thinking of 2004 Charley automatically comes to mind with that unusually strong Aug trough taking him north over Fl and then out to sea. But later in the year, we did have persistent ridging, if I recall with Jeanne and a storm before Jeanne (can't remember) that were pushed due west into central Fl and hit at almost the exact same spot. So the year of the unusually strong trough, gave way to ridging for much of the later season. 1995, an incredibly active year (some have mentioned as a possible analog), did have very persistent troughing. Such that with all of the hurricane activity, the US was by and large spared, with storms heading off the coast.

[Hammy]

18Z GFS. Saved in first post of the thread.

Can we say that this GFS run represents an "outlier"?? That looks nothing like any of the other plots I've seen recently. Wild swings. I thought consensus was for building ridge in Atlantic???

Think of Cindy back in June--take that as an early indicator of the models handling of the steering--the GFS seems like it overestimates the troughs, while the Euro overestimates the ridges (it had Cindy going into Tampico for many runs.) so whatever the two models show, if they can come up with some degree of consistency, would probably be somewhere between.

[Christiana]

I hope this is OK to post here, if not, Mods please delete or move. I constantly see questions, comments, criticisms etc concerning the computer models used for Tropical Guidance. As a total layperson, but as someone whose life has been tragically altered by Major Hurricanes more than once I just want to understand as much as I can. I found this website the other day and the information there on the different models and their complexities I found concise and easy to understand. To our Pro-Mets, if there is a better official site out there for similar information that the average person can understand please post. It's obvious to me that there is much misunderstanding about the different models and it's easy to see why. Very advanced, very complex, fascinating and evolving. Thanks again to all the experts here who share so much. Science matters a great deal to me. Link: http://www.hurricanescience.org/science/forecast/models/

[emeraldislenc]

What type of trend?

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Ive noticed that while the upgrades have made it slightly more difficult, this trough pattern has also made it difficult, last year i remember the models moving the trough in and then nothing, it got to the point where it became a joke with that "magic trough"

[Ptarmigan]

I saw the HWFI have 91L as a Category 5 hurricane.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png

[blp]

I saw the HWFI have 91L as a Category 5 hurricane.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png

Yes it looks vicious.

[Hurricaneman]

I saw the HWFI have 91L as a Category 5 hurricane.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png

All the intensity models have a hurricane in 96 hrs but I feel that's too bullish

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS has 2 separate systems and look separate enough not to fujiwara or impinge on each other

[Ptarmigan]

I saw the HWFI have 91L as a Category 5 hurricane.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png

Yes it looks vicious.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/04 ... 9410c2.png

I saw the HWFI have 91L as a Category 5 hurricane.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png

All the intensity models have a hurricane in 96 hrs but I feel that's too bullish

That is what I am thinking too.

[Alyono]

I saw the HWFI have 91L as a Category 5 hurricane.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png

Yes it looks vicious.

NOT VALID!!!

Too close to the lateral boundary

[JPmia]

I saw the HWFI have 91L as a Category 5 hurricane.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png

Yes it looks vicious.

NOT VALID!!!

Too close to the lateral boundary

hey can you tone it down a little? I have no idea what you're saying and all caps in red letters doesn't help.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Models have shifted south or either dropped this:

That run over SFL into the gulf would analog Katrina

[floridasun78]

I saw the HWFI have 91L as a Category 5 hurricane.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png

Yes it looks vicious.

that wont be good Haiti but i think that models over do it put we part season we could see strong hurr

[SouthFLTropics]

Some fairly big changes on the 00z GFS. The Eastern wave is farther South this run and the Western wave is farther west...looks to be enough separation for two separate entities.

[Alyono]

neither become a TC. Not only is there SAL, but there are upper lows according to the GFS

[Hurricaneman]

Some fairly big changes on the 00z GFS. The Eastern wave is farther South this run and the Western wave is farther west...looks to be enough separation for two separate entities.

Imagine if this system became Harvey north of the islands while Irma forms from the western vortex and goes through the Caribbean