ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

It will be interesting if this system really strengthens, the GFS will prove is not that crazy after all if it develops, lol.

[cycloneye]

Cloudiness and showers associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continue
to show signs of organization. Slow development is possible during
the next few days while the wave moves westward at 15-20 mph over
the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Gustywind]

Cloudiness and showers associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continue
to show signs of organization. Slow development is possible during
the next few days while the wave moves westward at 15-20 mph over
the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

% are on the increase , up to 10% at 48 hours and through 5 days compared to the previous TWO 20- 40%!

[Gustywind]

Hey peeps, i won't be surprised tomorrow if 92L is mentionned as a SPECIAL FEATURE!

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
145 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017



A tropical wave extends from 11N32W to a 1012 mb low pressure
located near 05N33W to 02N33W moving westward at near 10 kt.
Cloudiness and showers associated with this tropical have become
better organized since yesterday. Additional slow development is
possible during the next few days while the wave moves westward
over the tropical Atlantic. Satellite imagery indicates scattered
moderate convection from 03N to 09N between 30W and 36W. Latest
Tropical Weather Outlook gives this low a low chance of development
in 48 hours, and a medium chance of development through 5 days.

[weathaguyry]

Amazing, the NHC is giving a wave in the MDR a 30/50, in Mid- June, I cannot believe my eyes

[Dylan]

Even the 12z ECMWF is hinting at 92L developing, it showed absolutely nothing prior to this run.

[tolakram]

Even the 12z ECMWF is hinting at 92L developing, it showed absolutely nothing prior to this run.

It had it a few runs ago but once again the euro seems to have issues in the mid time frames, a lot like the last few years. The euro was the first to show any development and then dropped it.

[RL3AO]

There doesn't look to be many negatives during the next 72 to 96 hours. Wind shear will remain fairly low until it enters the Caribbean. Good mid-level moisture to the south of around 12N, although the risk of pulling in dry air from the north and eventually South America could be an issue. Besides climatology, I really don't see much stopping this from becoming a TC in the next few days.

[Hurricanehink]

The potential track reminds me of this June storm in 1933.

[cycloneye]

As of 18:00 UTC Jun 16, 2017:

Location: 5.0°N 34.4°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

[RL3AO]

Quick thought on 92L. Overall in a fairly good environment. The TUTT near the islands is drifting westward and a weak upper ridge to the east of 92L is providing some 20 to 30 knot easterlies at 200mb. Since we have easterlies at 850mb and easterlies at 200mb, that means the shear is low (at least using 850 minus 200). Environment stays decent until it enters the Caribbean and finally runs into the southwesterlies from the TUTT.

[cycloneye]

[weatherwindow]

t

Looks impressive today. Probably just about qualifies for TD status now. Good chance it will become a TS prior to reaching the Caribbean. Once in the eastern Caribbean it should quickly weaken as it runs into high shear. Could be a TS for Trinidad. That's unusual. I don't think that Trinidad has ever been hit by a hurricane (i.e., recorded 1-min 74+ mph winds with the passage of a TC).

In addition to the previously noted 1933 storm, The eye of hurricane Flora passed over Trinadad /Tobago September 30, 1963... Hurricane hunters noted a distinct eye the morning prior to an afternoon transit of the island. Sustained hurricane force winds were very likely ....Rich

[Bocadude85]

12z GFDL brings a decent tropical storm into Trinidad

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl&region=92L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017061612&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=0

[hurricanes1234]

Wow, Trinidad and Tobago remains at the very heart of those projections. Will be a shocking event if it verifies and we get directly affected by a named storm such as shown in those models.

But there's still time, and things can change between now and then, so we'll see what happens.

[Dougiefresh]

Wow, Trinidad and Tobago remains at the very heart of those projections. Will be a shocking event if it verifies and we get directly affected by a named storm such as shown in those models.

But there's still time, and things can change between now and then, so we'll see what happens.

True, Trinidad doesn't have much experience with storms at all and down there floods off of normal inclement weather but if it goes north then where I live (Barbados) and Grenada in the firing line. Still early days though..

[Yellow Evan]

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL922017 06/16/17 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 39 46 53 59 61 61 63 63
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 39 46 53 59 61 61 63 63
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 38 41 45 46 44 42 38
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 9 7 9 9 6 6 15 11 18 12 24 21
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 2 4 6 4 0 0 6 13 4 0
SHEAR DIR 75 61 42 18 14 25 303 280 276 228 183 211 212
SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.1 28.2 27.9 27.9 28.5 28.2
POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 146 145 146 144 145 143 144 139 138 146 142
ADJ. POT. INT. 152 155 160 160 162 159 162 161 160 152 145 151 144
200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 7 10 9 10 8 9
700-500 MB RH 72 73 72 72 71 74 71 70 64 69 73 75 72
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 11 10 10 11 11 12 12 10 10 9
850 MB ENV VOR 30 24 22 19 26 17 34 22 18 1 15 22 25
200 MB DIV 46 48 49 28 26 24 22 41 66 106 105 60 10
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -6 -4 3 0 13 5
LAND (KM) 1766 1627 1479 1301 1130 809 478 300 289 0 208 277 244
LAT (DEG N) 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.8 6.7 7.8 9.3 10.7 12.4 13.9 15.4
LONG(DEG W) 34.4 35.7 37.1 38.8 40.5 43.9 47.8 52.1 56.6 61.0 64.8 68.1 71.3
STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 15 17 17 18 21 23 23 22 19 17 17
HEAT CONTENT 33 36 40 45 44 54 40 41 36 6 9 32 42

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.9

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 37. 41.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 21. 28. 34. 36. 36. 38. 38.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 5.0 34.4

** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 06/16/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.79 2.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 39.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.25 0.8
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.41 1.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 2.3
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.94 2.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.33 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 77.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.86 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.1

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 19.4% 14.5% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 17.7% 0.0%
Logistic: 6.0% 35.0% 20.9% 9.2% 4.9% 13.4% 25.1% 37.1%
Bayesian: 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.4%
Consensus: 4.1% 18.4% 11.9% 6.0% 1.6% 4.5% 14.3% 13.2%

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 06/16/2017 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 39 46 53 59 61 61 63 63
18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 37 44 51 57 59 59 61 61
12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 32 39 46 52 54 54 56 56
6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 31 38 44 46 46 48 48
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

[gatorcane]

is that banding I am seeing? Maybe it is Aug 16th instead of June 16th.

[RL3AO]

Can we get some deep convection to develop over the center tonight?

[cycloneye]

Despite the lack of what you describe,the structure looks impressive.