CPAC: FERNANDA - Post-Tropical

[Sciencerocks]

ewrc has not failed

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_h ... egreeticks

outer eyewall has become better established once again. It is also contracting

A second moat is also forming

Wouldn't this be a sign of "dry" air(aka Ike, Rita for some examples) that keep this thing from forming a solid outer eyewall and completing the ewrc?

[Ntxw]

Weird that we're seeing variance on the state of the storm with these microwave passes. Satellite trends definitely match the idea of a failed or at least delayed eyewall replacement cycle. This is clearly gathering strength again:

[img]http://i.imgur.com/3677Tml.gif[/ig]

It's been acting like this since yesterday.

We seriously have a lot to learn about ERCs.

Its core is very small. I don't know much about EWRC but I wonder if that plays a role.

[Alyono]

seems like a setup of multiple ewrc, one after another

[Kingarabian]

Weird that we're seeing variance on the state of the storm with these microwave passes. Satellite trends definitely match the idea of a failed or at least delayed eyewall replacement cycle. This is clearly gathering strength again:

[img]http://i.imgur.com/3677Tml.gif[/ig]

It's been acting like this since yesterday.

We seriously have a lot to learn about ERCs.

Its core is very small. I don't know much about EWRC but I wonder if that plays a role.

Maybe its small core is helping it maintain its intensity. Usually we're supposed to see the eye fill up with clouds, then contract into a bigger one. The eye did contract a little but, but never did the eye lose its definition.

[Kingarabian]

seems like a setup of multiple ewrc, one after another

Or the mysterious double eyed phenomenon that was seen before

Edit: nvm.

[1900hurricane]

The 91 GHz outer eyewall on Alyono's F-18 pass is showing up pretty much exactly where it is on the GPM pass TA13 and I posted when using 37 GHz. I'm not sure why the signal was so weak on the GPM 89 GHz.

[Ntxw]

Goes 16 ADT again. This is more impressive than at any point she looked yesterday from it.

[Kingarabian]

Goes 16 ADT again. This is more impressive than at any point she looked yesterday from it.

That's definitely a 6.5 if not higher.

What's the goes16 ADT link?

[Ntxw]

What's the goes16 ADT link?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/goesrPG/

Yeah, next advisory better be at least 125kts

[1900hurricane]

Goes 16 ADT again. This is more impressive than at any point she looked yesterday from it.

That's definitely a 6.5 if not higher.

What's the goes16 ADT link?

Here you go!

The eye size and angle that GOES-16 is viewing it at may finally be offsetting the satellite's superior spatial resolution (*EDIT: not quite yet! The eye temp just broke warm medium grey again per GOES-16, which is a little warmer than GOES-15).

[1900hurricane]

Also, for anyone curious, here's how to use the Dvorak eye pattern.

[Ntxw]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/886435451309101059

[Kingarabian]

Shame that the NHC ignores the GOES16 ADT.

[Kingarabian]

The GFS intensifies this through the next 40 hours.

[Ntxw]

Shame that the NHC ignores the GOES16 ADT.

It can still make a run for it. But this is clearly more than a cat 3 now.

[1900hurricane]

The GFS intensifies this through the next 40 hours.

It and GOES-15 ADT 8.2.1 are running pretty close together.

[Ntxw]

Goes 16 ADT

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 JUL 2017 Time : 041537 UTC
Lat : 11:36:14 N Lon : 125:30:37 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 947.3mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +10.1C Cloud Region Temp : -71.8C

Scene Type : EYE

[wxmann_91]

Shame that the NHC ignores the GOES16 ADT.

There's a reason why they use the "preliminary and non-operational" disclaimer everywhere... they're not supposed to use the data yet to make any judgment calls until testing and calibration is completed in November.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 06, 201707160600, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1190N, 12570W, , 1, 115, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, AS, IM, 1, 6060 /////, , , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=6.0 BO EYE MET=6.0 PT=6.0 FTBO DT4

[Sciencerocks]