CPAC: FERNANDA - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Worthy of at least a 6.0.

[Sciencerocks]

Worthy of at least a 6.0.

I agree...The NHC should hold the intensity of the last package at the very least.

[Yellow Evan]

ERC isn't near done yet. Give it another 12-18 hours.

[1900hurricane]

110 kt looks good to me. The DT is clearly 5.5 at the moment with an off-white eye and an embedded shade of light grey, an eye number of 5.0. Neither the black or white shades meet width requirements (30 nm/0.5*), but a complete ring for black or white yield a 0.5 eye adjustment for the DT of 5.5. CI is still 6.0 due to Dvorak rules, but Fernanda has clearly weakened in the past 12-24 hours (downward trend in MET). 110 kt strikes a good compromise in the CI and the DT/MET. The CIMSS ADT CI is also about 110 kt right now, giving greater confidence to the intensity estimate.

[RL3AO]

I've been playing around with Python again. Managed to create this from the best track file. I'll post it when I'm around. I wouldn't want to take away from cycloneye too much.

ATCF Best Track
System ID: EP06
0000 UTC Jul 16, 2017
Location: 11.7°N, 124.8°N
Central Pressure: 957 mb
Maximum Winds (1-min): 110 kt (126 mph)
Type: Category 3 Hurricane (HU)

[Kingarabian]

I've been playing around with Python again. Managed to create this from the best track file. I'll post it when I'm around. I wouldn't want to take away from cycloneye too much.

ATCF Best Track
System ID: EP06
0000 UTC Jul 16, 2017
Location: 11.7°N, 124.8°N
Central Pressure: 957 mb
Maximum Winds (1-min): 110 kt (126 mph)
Type: Category 3 Hurricane (HU)

Damn lol, what's left?

A python image/gif grabber and poster. And then we'll have nothing to post on these EPac threads.

[1900hurricane]

I can't wait until I can do more than the most basic stuff with Python.

[1900hurricane]

Latest GPM pass:

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017
800 PM PDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Recent microwave imagery, including a just-received GPM overpass,
indicate that Fernanda continues to have concentric eyewalls with
diameters of roughly 10 and 45 n mi. The eye has become less
distinct in conventional satellite imagery since the last advisory,
and the central convection has become more ragged. Based on this,
the initial intensity is lowered to 110 kt, which is a little below
the average of the various satellite intensity estimates. While the
inner core has become a little less organized since yesterday, the
hurricane has developed a large and symmetric area of outer
convective banding.

Fernanda has about 24 h more in a warm-water, light-shear
environment. The intensity forecast is based on the premise that
the current eyewall replacement cycle will finish before the
hurricane leaves the warmest water, and thus it calls for some
re-intensification during that time. From 24-96 h, Fernanda
should remain in a light shear environment, but will move over
decreasing sea surface temperatures and into a drier air mass.
After 96 h, the cyclone will also encounter significant westerly
shear. The intensity forecast thus calls for steady to rapid
weakening after 36 h. Overall, the new intensity forecast is a
little higher than the model consensus for the first 36 h and near
the consensus after that.

Fernanda is now moving 285/12, steered by a mid- to upper-level
ridge to the north and northeast. A west-northwestward motion is
expected to continue for the next several days while the hurricane
moves toward a weakness at the western periphery of the ridge.
After 96 h, most of the guidance suggests that Fernanda should turn
westward as it weakens and becomes steered by the low-level
subtropical ridge. The new forecast track remains near the middle
of the guidance envelope and in best agreement with the various
consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 11.7N 125.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 12.4N 127.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 13.2N 129.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 14.0N 131.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 14.7N 133.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 16.5N 136.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 17.5N 139.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 17.5N 142.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The eyewall replacement cycle looks to have failed, as a 0116z microwave pass indicates the outer eyewall has broken into fragmented spiral bands. This development matches satellite--it's why Fernanda now has a solid W ring on Dvorak imagery again.

[Ntxw]

[Kingarabian]

The eyewall replacement cycle looks to have failed, as a 0116z microwave pass indicates the outer eyewall has broken into fragmented spiral bands. This development matches satellite--it's why Fernanda now has a solid W ring on Dvorak imagery again.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/wCKWn0l.png[/mg]

Interesting. Also looks to be trying to go CMG ...



NHC might need to do a special advisory if it completes it and maintains and the numbers go back up.

Should be a 7.0 if CMG wraps up right?

[Alyono]

ewrc has not failed

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_h ... egreeticks

outer eyewall has become better established once again. It is also contracting

A second moat is also forming

[Yellow Evan]

Should be a 7.0 if CMG wraps up right?

Merely a full CMG will not do if the W ring isn't very thick.

[Ntxw]

From Goes 16

[TheAustinMan]

I overlaid the latest microwave imagery atop the Dvorak-scheme infrared to see where certain features lined up. It's a bit cluttered but there's a general sense of where the banding and eyewall(s) lie. Images are about 4 or so minutes apart:

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Weird that we're seeing variance on the state of the storm with these microwave passes. Satellite trends definitely match the idea of a failed or at least delayed eyewall replacement cycle. This is clearly gathering strength again:

[Blown Away]

Could this system make it to Hawaii??

[Kingarabian]

Could this system make it to Hawaii??

Doubt it as a respectable entity. But it's still a good 7 days a way.

[Kingarabian]

Weird that we're seeing variance on the state of the storm with these microwave passes. Satellite trends definitely match the idea of a failed or at least delayed eyewall replacement cycle. This is clearly gathering strength again:

[img]http://i.imgur.com/3677Tml.gif[/ig]

It's been acting like this since yesterday.

We seriously have a lot to learn about ERCs.