ATL: HARVEY - Models

[sphelps8681]

GFS doesn't look like it wants to take it in much?

Hey Rock have not been on in the last few hours. Caught the end of local weather and they show spaghetti model with most models going west. Is this still headed toward Tx/La border?

[tolakram]

Where can I find the models. Close to brazos river no one is saying evacuate but khou show brazos at Richmond flooding I'm freaking run to Albuquerque to my daughters or stay omg

Most can be found on this page. NHC is your best bet for track, past 5 days the rack is very up in the air, heck past 3 days even.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z850_vort

[Steve]

I'll say this; for the system being out of range, the NAM was the one model that led the way to chaos. Track was off and on, and while this wasn't ever getting into the 870s but the structure and intensification was there. Recall the EURO and GFS a few days ago slinging a stretched out tropical storm while NAM, though overdoing it, shined the light. Blind squirrel but duly noted.

[Steve]

Speaking of NAM, 00z takes a few days to much of anything but wobble.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

[Wx_Warrior]

NHC 10pm track

[Steve]

GFS also does nothing for about 4 days before moving it a little north and weakening substantially by that time. We will have to see if the other models agree and time confirms, but I think it's probably > 50% chance that the NAM and GFS have the right idea. I haven't looked at the upper charts because I haven't had time. But y'all all better prepare for at least 3 days of close to what you're seeing besides the extreme winds.

[Wx_Warrior]

FWIW - GFS 0z

Harvey stalled thru Sunday


google picture sharing

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS 0z

72H - 2nd landfall - matagorda?


google picture sharing

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS 114h

Finally slowly scoots north around Thursday of next. Unreal rain amounts.


google picture sharing

[BRweather]

The 00z GFS and the 00Z NAM differ at hour 84 at 500 mb. NAM lets Harvey have way more breathing room offshore. GFS tries pumping in ridge over Gulf quickly.

[BRweather]

So this is the latest NAVGEM

It is the NAVGEM so view at your own risk

[TexWx]

Can't be real.

[AubreyStorm]

[quote="BRweather"]So this is the latest NAVGEM

It is the NAVGEM so view at your own risk

NOOOOOOOOOO!
OMG!

[Blinhart]

So this is the latest NAVGEM

It is the NAVGEM so view at your own risk

OK what does he do later?

[BRweather]

ECMWF with a drastic southerly drop from 24h to 48 h.

[BRweather]

WOW

Fairly noticeable difference in the ridge pumping on from the east between GFS and EC out to Tuesday 00z

[BRweather]

Not liking this ECMWF run.

Harvey back over open water and strengthening because the ridge over the gulf is not as strong nor as far west as the GFS

[Kingarabian]

Makes sense considering Harvey's slow movement thus far.

[BRweather]

I think it is good to compare the models and see why they are having different outcomes. So I am going to keep doing it.

Clear as day why between EC and GFS out to Wednesday 00z.

[BRweather]

Regardless though, it looks like EC still has Harvey missing the trough and hanging around back over Texas for a second landfall