ATL: MARIA - Models

[jlauderdal]

Models seem to be working well after a rough start earlier in the season. Harvey and Irma were both handled fairly well, though no one really forecast Irma running over the Cuban coast as it did - that spared SE Florida a much worse fate.

During my weather days, the 1970's operational models had a very wide margin of error - not so now...

the gfs was way right all the way until the end and intensity was garbage too, consistently at 900mb or below..ukmet and euro did the best job overall

[tolakram]

[otowntiger]

ec looks to fujiwara with Jose

garbage can

awesome, gfs plows the storm into the ridge and the euro goes dancing with jose...guess we see wha happy hour brings, hope it comes to something more realistic then wake up tomorrow and see how the euro resolves jose

but isn't this good news? If either of these were to verify? Seems like something to be hopeful for not disappointed?

[xironman]

Best model run of the year, Maria forces Jose's remnants into NC while an approaching trough pushes Maria into Bangor ME

[AxaltaRacing24]

ec looks to fujiwara with Jose

garbage can

awesome, gfs plows the storm into the ridge and the euro goes dancing with jose...guess we see wha happy hour brings, hope it comes to something more realistic then wake up tomorrow and see how the euro resolves jose

but isn't this good news? If either of these were to verify? Seems like something to be hopeful for not disappointed?

It would be good news but both are unrealistic and unlikely to actually play out.

[psyclone]

Looks like everyone's sleep pattern will be going back to EURO standard time. Still plenty of time for a good outcome for the CONUS here but for folks in the eastern Caribbean...

[NJWxHurricane]

awesome, gfs plows the storm into the ridge and the euro goes dancing with jose...guess we see wha happy hour brings, hope it comes to something more realistic then wake up tomorrow and see how the euro resolves jose

but isn't this good news? If either of these were to verify? Seems like something to be hopeful for not disappointed?

It would be good news but both are unrealistic and unlikely to actually play out.

nothing is ever unlikely, this is the weather

[jlauderdal]

ec looks to fujiwara with Jose

garbage can

awesome, gfs plows the storm into the ridge and the euro goes dancing with jose...guess we see wha happy hour brings, hope it comes to something more realistic then wake up tomorrow and see how the euro resolves jose

but isn't this good news? If either of these were to verify? Seems like something to be hopeful for not disappointed?

the system may end up in those locations but not with the setup they are showing in these runs, they look until hour 150 or so then it goes to fantasy..lets see how the gfs does during happy hour

[M3gaMatch]

wow, what a run from the Euro. I can't see it playing out like that but very interesting nonetheless. I don't know about the Atlantic, but here in the Coral / Tasman Sea, anything at those high latitudes would 9 times out of 10 be off to the SE, or NE in your case (referring to Jose). We'll see.

[invest man]

How many of us could say that "if" that came to fruition, that would be the strangest thing you'd ever seen tropically?

[Kingarabian]

but isn't this good news? If either of these were to verify? Seems like something to be hopeful for not disappointed?

It would be good news but both are unrealistic and unlikely to actually play out.

nothing is ever unlikely, this is the weather

Low pressure systems do not run straight into high pressures the way the GFS modeled out.

Models have a tendency in overdoing binary interactions with nearby systems and show Fujiwara's, which more times than not do not materialize.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Maria says "Dance Jose DANCE!"

[AutoPenalti]

Just woke up from my 30 min nap, lol Euro.


Just lol.

[AdamFirst]

I will eat my shorts if that EURO run verifies post 5 days.

Hoping for the best for our friends in the islands...again. The third time in three weeks.

[Alyono]

Looks like everyone's sleep pattern will be going back to EURO standard time. Still plenty of time for a good outcome for the CONUS here but for folks in the eastern Caribbean...

some really have to stop being wed to the ECMWF

[otowntiger]

but isn't this good news? If either of these were to verify? Seems like something to be hopeful for not disappointed?

It would be good news but both are unrealistic and unlikely to actually play out.

nothing is ever unlikely, this is the weather

. Right! I was just going to say how do we know it's unlikely?? Lol!

[Kingarabian]

Looks like everyone's sleep pattern will be going back to EURO standard time. Still plenty of time for a good outcome for the CONUS here but for folks in the eastern Caribbean...

some really have to stop being wed to the ECMWF

It's the king tho

[Aric Dunn]

All i have to say us wow... Euro geez lol.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like everyone's sleep pattern will be going back to EURO standard time. Still plenty of time for a good outcome for the CONUS here but for folks in the eastern Caribbean...

some really have to stop being wed to the ECMWF

I don't think it has anything to do with hugging the Euro, usually I like to compare both operationals when it's running.

I also like hitting the refresh button to see what the Euro comes up with, it's always exciting to see what comes next.

[Blown Away]

I thought the 12z Euro was kinda cool... If that happened it would legendary...