ATL: DON - Remnants - Discussion

[Weather150]

The 45mph winds came quicker than originally forecast by the NHC.

[colbroe]

To my naked eye it looks like Don is expanding as we speak ,I saw a graphic showing that this storm will be a huuicane before it reaches Barbados with a pressure of 987 hope this does not happen.

[AutoPenalti]

To my naked eye it looks like Don is expanding as we speak ,I saw a graphic showing that this storm will be a huuicane before it reaches Barbados with a pressure of 987 hope this does not happen.

Yeah, that's not happening. I'm pretty sure you got this from HWRF. Do not use HWRF for intensity forecasts.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

To my naked eye it looks like Don is expanding as we speak ,I saw a graphic showing that this storm will be a huuicane before it reaches Barbados with a pressure of 987 hope this does not happen.

Yeah, that's not happening. I'm pretty sure you got this from HWRF. Do not use HWRF for intensity forecasts.

HWRF can overhype things, but it's been right before too. Arthur in 2014 comes to mind.

Worth noting the ECMWF also completely failed to detect this storm, even if it's a small system.

[RL3AO]

To my naked eye it looks like Don is expanding as we speak ,I saw a graphic showing that this storm will be a huuicane before it reaches Barbados with a pressure of 987 hope this does not happen.

Yeah, that's not happening. I'm pretty sure you got this from HWRF. Do not use HWRF for intensity forecasts.

The HWRF has its flaws, but to give the advice to ignore one of best (probably THE best) intensity model is a little foolish.

[AtlanticWind]

To my naked eye it looks like Don is expanding as we speak ,I saw a graphic showing that this storm will be a huuicane before it reaches Barbados with a pressure of 987 hope this does not happen.

Yeah, that's not happening. I'm pretty sure you got this from HWRF. Do not use HWRF for intensity forecasts.

They HWRF is an important intensity model

[ROCK]

Definitely a creeper TC..CMC Euro..GFS op didn't even see development. Looks like track is fairly set..

[Hypercane_Kyle]

To my naked eye it looks like Don is expanding as we speak ,I saw a graphic showing that this storm will be a huuicane before it reaches Barbados with a pressure of 987 hope this does not happen.

Yeah, that's not happening. I'm pretty sure you got this from HWRF. Do not use HWRF for intensity forecasts.

The HWRF has its flaws, but to give the advice to ignore one of best (probably THE best) intensity model is a little foolish.

Yea, it's not an unreasonable solution; we've seen small storms quickly ramp up in the MDR without any model support (Danny in 2015, anyone?). I think if the HWRF were showing a major hurricane then it would be unreasonable, but if Don continues to consistently generate thunderstorms, its tight LLC could allow it to ramp up to a 55-65 knot storm before dying in the Caribbean. Entirely IMO, of course.

[RL3AO]

Yea, it's not an unreasonable solution; we've seen small storms quickly ramp up in the MDR without any model support (Danny in 2015, anyone?). I think if the HWRF were showing a major hurricane then it would be unreasonable, but if Don continues to consistently generate thunderstorms, its tight LLC could allow it to ramp up to a 55-65 knot storm before dying in the Caribbean. Entirely IMO, of course.

And that is why the human forecast continues to beat any individual model. However, when it comes to verification of the models, the HWRF has been the best when it comes to intensity for the past two years. I just wanted to make sure the "ignore the HWRF for intensity" comment was addressed.

[AutoPenalti]

As much support as HWRF gets, I still wouldn't use it for forecasting intensity. It's an exaggerated intensity forecast, it half the time assumes a TC is in a favorable environment for rapid intensification only for it to be brought back to earth after a few runs.


But like a lot of the other models, following the trend is key.

Anyway, this is addressed, always follow the pro-mets, they know more than most of us

[RL3AO]

ATCF Best Track
System ID: AL05 (DON)
0000 UTC Jul 18, 2017
Location: 11.2°N, 53.8°N
Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Maximum Winds (1-min): 40 kt (46 mph)
Type: Tropical Storm (TS)
ACE (Storm Total): 0.2825

[northjaxpro]

Well. with all respect to my fellow posters here on Storm2k in this thread hammering the HWRF, I will point out to not completely discount that model. The HWRF did correctly intensify Danny in 2015.

It was the only model which showed Danny becoming a major hurricane, which indeed it attained Cat 3 status out in the Tropical Atlantic two seasons ago, although it was an extremely small cyclone.

So, although the HWRF is not the most reliable model, it was right about Danny.

[ronjon]

I actually think TS Don has a shot at hurricane status the next 24-36 hrs. Seems to be wrapping up tonight and slowed its forward speed a tad. These small systems can spin up pretty rapidly under favorable conditions.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif

[Aric Dunn]

I actually think TS Don has a shot at hurricane status the next 24-36 hrs. Seems to be wrapping up tonight and slowed its forward speed a tad. These small systems can spin up pretty rapidly under favorable conditions.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif

It's possible if it can keep away from the SAL and then before the SHEAR and do all that in about 24 to 36 hrs.. .. lol

[Aric Dunn]

SO far there the one convective column is maintaining with one lone tower that continues to build nothing crazy but thats what it needs to survive.

[Alyono]

Well. with all respect to my fellow posters here on Storm2k in this thread hammering the HWRF, I will point out to not completely discount that model. The HWRF did correctly intensify Danny in 2015.

It was the only model which showed Danny becoming a major hurricane, which indeed it attained Cat 3 status out in the Tropical Atlantic two seasons ago, although it was an extremely small cyclone.

So, although the HWRF is not the most reliable model, it was right about Danny.

HWRF is the BEST intensity forecast model

[Weather150]

[northjaxpro]

Well. with all respect to my fellow posters here on Storm2k in this thread hammering the HWRF, I will point out to not completely discount that model. The HWRF did correctly intensify Danny in 2015.

It was the only model which showed Danny becoming a major hurricane, which indeed it attained Cat 3 status out in the Tropical Atlantic two seasons ago, although it was an extremely small cyclone.

So, although the HWRF is not the most reliable model, it was right about Danny.

HWRF is the BEST intensity forecast model

Yes, Alyono I am in agreement with you about this.

[hurricanehunter69]

Very likely a warm core is being built.
High rain rate in a nearly saturated mid level creates ideal setup for latent heating to create the warm core.

Nice post! And we're not talkin about a fragile, jerry rigged contraption that can easily be broken. Don is a small, but tight and well built warm core engine. Good environment thru 48 hrs, decent thru 84 hrs and less than decent there after. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Don made a run at hurricane.

[RL3AO]

HMON isn't playing around.