CPAC: FERNANDA - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Its held WMG eye for the past 6 hours.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Fernanda is past its peak of 125kt. The white ring has been gradually shrinking during the past 2 hours and looks ready to break during the next few frames. We'll see if it can re-intensify after the EWRC.

[HurricaneRyan]

By far the best storm of the year so far

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 06, 2017071506, , BEST, 0, 108N, 1213W, 125, 948, HU, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 50, 60, 1012, 160, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FERNANDA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,

[Sciencerocks]

[euro6208]

TXPZ29 KNES 150648
TCSENP

A. 06E (FERNANDA)

B. 15/0600Z

C. 10.8N

D. 121.2W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY A WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B AND
EMBEDDED IN LG. DT=6.0 AFTER ADDING 1.0 FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET=6.0
FT=6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

[Sciencerocks]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 150834
TCDEP1

Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017
200 AM PDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Fernanda has not intensified during the past few hours. The
convective tops surrounding the eye have warmed up a little, but
the overall cloud pattern continues to be very impressive. The
Dvorak T-numbers are 6.0 and 6.5 indicating that winds are still
around 125 kt.

Fernanda has the possibility of some strengthening during the
next 12 to 24 hours since the hurricane is embedded within light
shear and moving over warm waters. After that time, the hurricane
will likely maintain the same intensity for a couple of days, but a
weakening trend should then begin as the circulation of the cyclone
encounters cooler waters by the end of the forecast period. The NHC
forecast continues to be above the intensity guidance, and does not
vary much from the previous one.

The hurricane is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 10 kt.
The cyclone is being steered by a deep layer of easterlies
associated with a strong subtropical ridge. A general westward
track with a gradual turn to the west-northwest is anticipated
as the hurricane approaches the western portion of the ridge over
the next 5 days. Track guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC
forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 10.8N 121.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 11.1N 123.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 11.8N 125.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 12.5N 128.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 13.5N 131.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 15.0N 135.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 16.5N 138.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 17.0N 140.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[euro6208]

Just how many pages this would get if it was in the Atlantic?

[Sciencerocks]

Just how many pages this would get if it was in the Atlantic?

If it was south Of Puerto Rico right now probably 200 pages.
Just east of Miami or south of New Orleans probably 300 pages
If it was at 30 north/60 west and heading northeast probably 25 pages.

[p1nheadlarry]

Fernanda is past its peak of 125kt. The white ring has been gradually shrinking during the past 2 hours and looks ready to break during the next few frames. We'll see if it can re-intensify after the EWRC.

Looks to be holding steady for now. NHC bumps it up a little more today.

[euro6208]

One thing i noticed is it's small size. WPAC like in latitude but a midget compared to our TY's.

[Ntxw]

Still waiting for that EWRC? She's gained a little steam again recently

[1900hurricane]

Looks like dry air might have broken up the outer eyewall.

[p1nheadlarry]

One thing i noticed is it's small size. WPAC like in latitude but a midget compared to our TY's.

The circulation/system itself is large, but the core of hurricane-force winds yes

[Ntxw]

The circulation/system itself is large, but the core of hurricane-force winds yes

Which is the argument some of have made with dvorak estimates for such systems might be undervalued with these tight core systems but within a larger envelope, so much is focused around the eye-wall must be really intense there. With hurricane Charley, I doubt dvorak would give it a cat 4 the way it looked being so small and compact but recon found that it was.

[euro6208]

Just another EPAC fish that intensifies over out the ocean but weakens after. Replay.

[Ntxw]

Just another EPAC fish that intensifies over out the ocean but weakens after. Replay.

It's the only fish in the sea right now to replay . Nothing else to look at really.

[euro6208]

Just another EPAC fish that intensifies over out the ocean but weakens after. Replay.

It's the only fish in the sea right now to replay . Nothing else to look at really.

Maybe more to come after.

[Kingarabian]

Intensifying again.

[Ntxw]

Intensifying again.

White thickened