ATL: MARIA - Models

[psyclone]

Models seem to be working well after a rough start earlier in the season. Harvey and Irma were both handled fairly well, though no one really forecast Irma running over the Cuban coast as it did - that spared SE Florida a much worse fate.

During my weather days, the 1970's operational models had a very wide margin of error - not so now...

The UKMET and the EURO had plenty of Irma runs interacting with Cuba.

[forecasterjack]

12Z ECMWF simulated satellite shows Maria missing Hispaniola to the north. Would open the door for BIG trouble Bahamas/US. 50 miles south though, and she hits the shredder. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/674-w-213-n/sat-ir-bright-temperature-1079mu/20170922-0600z.html

[Dean4Storms]

I can't see a US hit this time, OTS this run by ECM to 168hr.

[Alyono]

EC lets Jose linger, creating a MASSIVE weakness

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Same position but stronger that previous 12Z run.

[toad strangler]

EC lets Jose linger, creating a MASSIVE weakness

No doubt, much different than the GFS IRT Jose

[Hypercane_Kyle]

ECMWF back to showing Jose doing loop-de-loops off the NECONUS coastline, which results in 15L on a much more northern path.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Jose and Maria on a collision course on the ECMWF at hour 192

[Alyono]

ec looks to fujiwara with Jose

garbage can

[tolakram]

[jlauderdal]

Could be another example of the GFS being too right-biased and we could see more west shifts especially with the CMC shifting west.

Days and days with irma it was too far right

It's a known bias with it turning storms straight into ridges. It did it with Irma for days until shifting west.

yes, quite frankly the model has to be heavily discounted until it proves itself with each storm for at least a few days...will go with the euro and hope its right on the jose situation

[tolakram]

ec looks to fujiwara with Jose

garbage can

Agreed. The models love this nonsense, both GFS and Euro.

Puerto Rico needs to be prepared though, looks serious!

[psyclone]

EC lets Jose linger, creating a MASSIVE weakness

How reasonable is that in your opinion?

[jlauderdal]

ec looks to fujiwara with Jose

garbage can

awesome, gfs plows the storm into the ridge and the euro goes dancing with jose...guess we see wha happy hour brings, hope it comes to something more realistic then wake up tomorrow and see how the euro resolves jose

[WeatherEmperor]

ec looks to fujiwara with Jose

garbage can

Do you think a solution similar to the CMC is more likely...in that Jose gets pushed out fast allowing the ridge to build back in and push Maria more West??

[Alyono]

EC lets Jose linger, creating a MASSIVE weakness

How reasonable is that in your opinion?

given that the EC has a large weakness NE of Jose, I do not see that as very likely. What appears even more unlikely is that if Jose were to move slowly in that location that it could maintain its intensity

[supercane4867]

So much hysteria with this EC run.
The existence of Jose is really messing up the models. I think Jose should be already gone by then.

[AxaltaRacing24]

ec looks to fujiwara with Jose

garbage can

awesome, gfs plows the storm into the ridge and the euro goes dancing with jose...guess we see wha happy hour brings, hope it comes to something more realistic then wake up tomorrow and see how the euro resolves jose

It's almost like the models are messing with us at this point. I guess we have to see what trend (if any) that the happy hour GFS starts.

[xironman]

ec looks to fujiwara with Jose

garbage can

Oh come on, looks like good times to me.