ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[JBCycloneStan]

Some very high cloud tops. Still fighting sheer from Irma, but fighting hard...

Irma is clearing out, and then he should be okay.

By the way, what satellite is that from and how far back is their historical data? If you don't mind me asking.

Almost looks as if Irma provided a chance for Jose to reorganize and get bigger

[BYG Jacob]

Some very high cloud tops. Still fighting sheer from Irma, but fighting hard...

Irma is clearing out, and then he should be okay.

By the way, what satellite is that from and how far back is their historical data? If you don't mind me asking.

That is a NOAA GOES Floater. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

Thanks!

[Jelff]

Hurricane Jose - New Forecast Map

Below is a Google + GIS map link that always shows the latest NOAA forecast for any current hurricanes. Up until today Hurricane Jose had been expected to curve to the north and remain a “fish storm”. Now the current NOAA forecast is that Jose will do a 360 degree loop and line up pointing at the east coast. But it is still along way out and this could change.

When you open the map is shows a black and white satellite image that updates every 30 minutes. If that basemap is black it simply means that you are looking at this map when it is nighttime in this area.

The map can display 20+ overlays of data that are hosted on various federal and/or state GIS (Geographical Information System) servers. Each time you open the map or turn on a GIS data overlay, the most recent data that is hosted on the GIS server appears on your screen.

There is a “Map Tips” link in the upper left corner. That link has the map legend and more info to help you get the most benefit from the map.

You can click something that is part of the “top layer” and see a display with *all* the attribute data the GIS server has for the thing that you clicked. Sometimes that attribute data includes a link that leads to an official government web page with charts, graphs, etc. Want me to explain that with a bit more detail? Please click the “Map Tips”.

Map link: https://bit.ly/2w0M15S

[GCANE]

Looks like it needed some mid-level moisture to fire up.
Irma did just that from her convective debris.
Jose outflow on the south and east quad look really good with an equator-ward channel.
North and west may improve as Irma weakens and moves away.
Can't beat the last microwave.
Intensity was off scale.

[BYG Jacob]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/flash-avn-long.html

Jose actually managed to maintain that convection burst and get it into his core, he could see some significant strengthening in the face of shear.

[BYG Jacob]

Looks like it needed some mid-level moisture to fire up.
Irma did just that from her convective debris.
Jose outflow on the south and east quad look really good with an equator-ward channel.
North and west may improve as Irma weakens and moves away.
Can't beat the last microwave.
Intensity was off scale.

To your eye does it look like some of that convection wrapped into his core? I'm on another site going back and forth with another guy that doesn't think it wrapped. I think it did, but I may be wrong.

[lando]

Unsure of strength but 12z ukmEt continues with west trend and now shows landfall around Martin county

[Ken711]

12z GFS staying with Cat 4 brushing the Outer Banks.

[BYG Jacob]

12z GFS staying with Cat 4 brushing the Outer Banks.

Well, we can rule out a cat 4 brushing the outer banks.

[GCANE]

Looks like it needed some mid-level moisture to fire up.
Irma did just that from her convective debris.
Jose outflow on the south and east quad look really good with an equator-ward channel.
North and west may improve as Irma weakens and moves away.
Can't beat the last microwave.
Intensity was off scale.

To your eye does it look like some of that convection wrapped into his core? I'm on another site going back and forth with another guy that doesn't think it wrapped. I think it did, but I may be wrong.

Looking at VIS Slider, towers are firing very near to the CoC.
Very likely they are heating the core.
That should strengthen the core and outflow should improve.

[BYG Jacob]

Looks like it needed some mid-level moisture to fire up.
Irma did just that from her convective debris.
Jose outflow on the south and east quad look really good with an equator-ward channel.
North and west may improve as Irma weakens and moves away.
Can't beat the last microwave.
Intensity was off scale.

To your eye does it look like some of that convection wrapped into his core? I'm on another site going back and forth with another guy that doesn't think it wrapped. I think it did, but I may be wrong.

Looking at VIS Slider, towers are firing very near to the CoC.
Very likely they are heating the core.
That should strengthen the core and outflow should improve.

Thanks

[fci]

Unsure of strength but 12z ukmEt continues with west trend and now shows landfall around Martin county

Forecast Discussion from our friends at NWS Melbourne:

The
ridge is forecast to shift north of the area late in the week as
Tropical Cyclone Jose meanders well to our east. This system may
cause storm struck Floridians much angst during this meandering
process, but the models have been showing it starting to lift north
around 75 longitude next weekend.

[txwatcher91]

Unsure of strength but 12z ukmEt continues with west trend and now shows landfall around Martin county

Forecast Discussion from our friends at NWS Melbourne:

The
ridge is forecast to shift north of the area late in the week as
Tropical Cyclone Jose meanders well to our east. This system may
cause storm struck Floridians much angst during this meandering
process, but the models have been showing it starting to lift north
around 75 longitude next weekend.

I assume they're throwing out the UK and its ensembles that show a FL hit or close approach... And latest 12z GEFS/GFS that now brush the FL coast or come quite close. If Euro comes on board with a close call then it would be cause for concern from FL to NC area.

[AFWeather]

Unsure of strength but 12z ukmEt continues with west trend and now shows landfall around Martin county

Forecast Discussion from our friends at NWS Melbourne:

The
ridge is forecast to shift north of the area late in the week as
Tropical Cyclone Jose meanders well to our east. This system may
cause storm struck Floridians much angst during this meandering
process, but the models have been showing it starting to lift north
around 75 longitude next weekend.

I assume they're throwing out the UK and its ensembles that show a FL hit or close approach... And latest 12z GEFS/GFS that now brush the FL coast or come quite close. If Euro comes on board with a close call then it would be cause for concern from FL to NC area.

They're probably right regarding what Jose will eventually do, but I don't know that I would be so dismissive this far out. Folks in FL need to be watching for the next few days at least, until it becomes obvious that this is no threat to FL.

[BYG Jacob]

Those are some cold clouds http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/flash-avn-long.html

[fci]

Forecast Discussion from our friends at NWS Melbourne:

The
ridge is forecast to shift north of the area late in the week as
Tropical Cyclone Jose meanders well to our east. This system may
cause storm struck Floridians much angst during this meandering
process, but the models have been showing it starting to lift north
around 75 longitude next weekend.

I assume they're throwing out the UK and its ensembles that show a FL hit or close approach... And latest 12z GEFS/GFS that now brush the FL coast or come quite close. If Euro comes on board with a close call then it would be cause for concern from FL to NC area.

They're probably right regarding what Jose will eventually do, but I don't know that I would be so dismissive this far out. Folks in FL need to be watching for the next few days at least, until it becomes obvious that this is no threat to FL.

Agree completely.
I think Floridians are shell shocked and very cognizant of Hurricanes now and won't let their guard down.

[Hurricaneman]

I assume they're throwing out the UK and its ensembles that show a FL hit or close approach... And latest 12z GEFS/GFS that now brush the FL coast or come quite close. If Euro comes on board with a close call then it would be cause for concern from FL to NC area.

They're probably right regarding what Jose will eventually do, but I don't know that I would be so dismissive this far out. Folks in FL need to be watching for the next few days at least, until it becomes obvious that this is no threat to FL.

Agree completely.
I think Floridians are shell shocked and very cognizant of Hurricanes now and won't let their guard down.

Also I looked at some old advisory maps for Jeanne in 2004 and the current projected path is similar to the advisories I looked at for Jeanne before the loop so those in Florida should keep that in mind as while we hope it doesn't happen again the UKMET says I could potentially and the other models seem to be trending that way

[weathaguyry]

I'm sad that tropical tidbits got rid of the analogs for the storms, that was always an interesting feature

[GCANE]

Decent tower shooting thru the cirrus

[AdamFirst]

Keeping our shutters up until Jose decides what to do. Don't want to repeat this cycle next week if by some off chance it does come here.