ATL: HARVEY - Models

[xironman]

The GFS has been fairly awful with Gert, ECMWF was better, actually the CMC seemed to be the best of the lot.

[RL3AO]

Just a friendly reminder before this thread becomes more active. This thread is designed for model posts and some occasionally technical discussion. Anyone that uses this thread is assumed to know that the models will change over the next week. Please avoid making reminder posts about that every six hours. The discussion thread is designed for topics like that.

Because of that, I moved a few of the posts this morning to the discussion thread.

[SFLcane]

Oh it could develop eastern Atl but were I question is the environment near the islands and possibly Bahamas.Ecm EPS has a straight shot thorough the Caribbean into mex. that's why I mentioned Franklin. All systems go for now.

[tolakram]

GFS 6Z has a completely different solution now.

0 - 192h

[tolakram]

My amateur interpretation, looking at the various GFS products, is dry air and some entanglement with an upper low, however nothing in the upper levels appears that different from Sunday's 12Z run.

[tolakram]

The 0Z Euro has a more southern solution with the storm hitting all the big islands and ending up in the gulf.

[gatorcane]

06Z NAVGEM is just north of islands:

[cycloneye]

@MJVentrice
This is the 126 hour forecast from the 0Z ECMWF EPS, and you can clear see two "Cape Verde" type genesis events to watch this weekend

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/897076645412179972

[RL3AO]

@MJVentrice
This is the 126 hour forecast from the 0Z ECMWF EPS, and you can clear see two "Cape Verde" type genesis events to watch this weekend

The next wave will probably be a fish (with the possible Bermuda exception), but it could be quite the ACE generator.

[SFLcane]

View of EURO EPS showing a concentration into the Yucatan.

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS Ensembles mostly north of the islands:

[Ivanhater]

The Euro ensembles are actually further north from the last run

[SFLcane]

Yea Euro track could very well get this tangled with plenty of landmass.

[RL3AO]

Yea Euro track could very well get this tangled with plenty of landmass.

That would probably be the saving grace for land areas further west.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/897053690430881792

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Gfs is so bad it's pathetic

GFS has been a major joke this year but you got to remember it's a forecast model and it wasn't only designed to track tropical systems it was designed to predict the environment in the air overall..... who knows maybe this model will be good at predictingwinter storms give it time to be tweaked and let's see if it can improve for next hurricane season!!!!!

[SFLcane]

Yep RL3AO into the sherdezola haiti mountains.

[RL3AO]

Gfs is so bad it's pathetic

GFS has been a major joke this year but you got to remember it's a forecast model and it wasn't only designed to track tropical systems it was designed to predict the environment in the air overall

It's a global weather model in 2017. Consistently failing with TC genesis drastically affects its ability to forecast the upper air patterns globally at days 5 to 10.

[RL3AO]

Yep RL3AO into the sherdezola haiti mountains.

Of course, that's probably only 20% of the EPS that does that.

[MississippiWx]

The GFS should be totally discounted in the tropics until it can at least indicate that a tropical storm is currently in the Atlantic. Lol. It didn't even show Gert after it had formed. Major issues.

It's getting into primetime for hurricane season. Overall environment is favorable, especially in the Western portion of the basin. Should be no issue for gradual development as 91L approaches the islands.