ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

[tarheelprogrammer]

It sure does look like a organizing TS to me. Best looking system so far this season, and probably the most potential so far this season.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Up to 50/70

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong tropical wave
located over the central Caribbean Sea are showing signs of
organization. Additional development of this system is possible
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm could form over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea before it reaches the Yucatan peninsula late Monday or
Tuesday. Even if formation does not occur before the system
reaches the Yucatan peninsula, a tropical depression or tropical
storm could form over the Bay of Campeche during the middle part of
next week. Development would likely not occur if the system moves
inland over Central America and southeastern Mexico and does not
re-emerge over water. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow afternoon, if
necessary. Interests along the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Siker]

HWRF with a major into Tampico.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

SFWMD plot, 12Z:

Could this system hit Texas or no ???

[Nimbus]

SFWMD plot, 12Z:

Could this system hit Texas or no ???

The system would have to stall long enough for the synoptic pattern to change.
All the models are talking about running this into a remote desert area so lets not jinx them..

[Siker]

SFWMD plot, 12Z:

Could this system hit Texas or no ???

The system would have to stall long enough for the synoptic pattern to change.
All the models are talking about running this into a remote desert area so lets not jinx them..

If it arrives around Tampico or southward it's not a remote desert area...

[Nimbus]

Could this system hit Texas or no ???

The system would have to stall long enough for the synoptic pattern to change.
All the models are talking about running this into a remote desert area so lets not jinx them..

If it arrives around Tampico or southward it's not a remote desert area...

Won't have that much time over water so more likely to follow a shallow system track north of Tampico.

[davidiowx]

How about we get a named storm, recon data and an accurate center fix before we start talking about landfall points?

A lot can happen this far out. The center could very well reform further north and that would change a lot of things. The strength of the storm will also have a determining factor as to where it ends up.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

As of 00:00 UTC Aug 06, 2017:

Location: 14.1°N 77.8°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

[South Texas Storms]

With the growing size of this system today, even if the storm does make landfall around Tampico, it looks like there's a decent chance some squalls could reach the lower Texas coast.

[Steve]

How about we get a named storm, recon data and an accurate center fix before we start talking about landfall points?

A lot can happen this far out. The center could very well reform further north and that would change a lot of things. The strength of the storm will also have a determining factor as to where it ends up.

It's the model thread?

[tropicwatch]

I have been looking at recent loops and it appears that the system might have gone stationary.

[Alyono]

some shear is affecting this. However, the low level structure is gradually becoming better organized

[tropicwatch]

What has been referred to as the primary circulation for this system has basically stayed in this box between 13 & 14N and 77 & 78W for the past six hours give or take.

[wxman57]

I have been looking at recent loops and it appears that the system might have gone stationary.

Nope, still moving right along. Don't focus on any specific convection, watch the movement of the system as a whole (zoomed-out on satellite).

[tropicwatch]

Looks like the two area's of convection are rotating around a broad circulation.

[TheStormExpert]

Not saying that 90L will pull an Ernesto(2012) but the similarities are interesting especially since Ernesto became a Cat.2 just prior to striking the Yucatán.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/893973465463750656

[Alyono]

Not saying that 90L will pull an Ernesto(2012) but the similarities are interesting especially since Ernesto became a Cat.2 just prior to striking the Yucatán.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/893973465463750656

BIG difference. Ernesto was a TS with a well-defined circulation. This is an open wave

If it's going to become a cane, it will do so in the Gulf

[Alyono]

Having a close look at this, this is in no hurry to organize. Convection is dropping off. This may very well be naked again by morning

That said, as we head into tomorrow evening, that is when I expect organization to really begin. By Monday afternoon, we may very well have a TD or a TS approaching the Yucatan