ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued.

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.2N 33.3W TO 12.6N 38.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 040400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.2N 33.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF CABO VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED BY THE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED
THAT IT HAS A WELL DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE DATA
ALSO SHOW THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WINDS OF 30
TO 35KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 050700Z.//

[GCANE]

Looks like a hot tower firing off at 9.5N 34.5 radially spewing out cirrus.

[GCANE]

Latest satellite measured wind analysis.
Wish data was available from CYGNSS

[cycloneye]

Visible Loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[ouragans]

94L is in very good shape this morning, NHC might go up to 90% at 8AM and we might have a TD by 5PM. Maybe a TS.

It really improved its structure overnight, and we just have to wait for the next ASCAT pass to verify the circulation

[GCANE]

Wow, for this latitude, its really pulling in the fuel.
No wonder the hot tower.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[GCANE]

I know age has its toll on memory, but I can't remember anything this early, this far south, with this kind of structure.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Early morning satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern
associated with the low pressure system located about 800 miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has not changed very
much in organization. Environmental conditions, however, are
favorable for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form
within the next 24 hours or so while the low moves westward or
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Hurricane Andrew]

Structure has certainly improved, and SHIPS guidance has trended stronger. Definitely a storm to watch. I will put out my unofficial forecast once this is tagged as a TD.

[Alyono]

circulation, if anything, does not seem as defined as yesterday

[Gustywind]

...What are you best thoughts about the path especially for those who lived in the Leewards like me and the Northern Leewards even PR?
REGARDS.
Gustywind

I'd say that you should be prepared in case a tropical storm impacts the NE Caribbean next Sat/Sun. I'm thinking about a 100% chance of development. Fair chance it may graze the NE Caribbean islands. No indication of a strong TS or Hurricane at this time.

Thanks for this clarification Wxman57 . We all know that your indications are so precious . So we should already keep an eye on this one in case of. Interresting days ahead to see how things will evolve.
Gustywind

[wxman57]

circulation, if anything, does not seem as defined as yesterday

Yeah, I was going to mention that. Looks less organized today - just a strong wave. SHIPS guidance assumes it's a well-defined depression to start with, which isn't the case. Remember, the first "S" in SHIPS guidance stands for statistical. No depression today. Maybe tomorrow. Could graze the NE Caribbean as a TS this weekend.

[tolakram]

Might be worth noting the 500MB normalized anomalies at the end of the euro 0z run. Is the trough gone?

[cycloneye]

It has a way's to go to be a TD.Is weak to be classified by SAB.

04/1145 UTC 10.0N 33.4W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/882217351420284929

[GCANE]

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/882217351420284929

The outflow boundary is from a cell not at the CoC.

[GCANE]

Multi-Satellite Intensity Estimation

[cycloneye]

As of 12:00 UTC Jul 04, 2017:

Location: 9.4°N 34.2°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1014 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 45 NM

[TheStormExpert]

12z Track Guidance. Trended south some.



12z Intensity Guidance. Was thinking this was going to become the seasons first hurricane, but I guess not.

[GCANE]

Getting a refire at 9.5N 35W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-wv.html