ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Maybe the farthest east and earliest hurricane ?

[Alyono]

Trinidad has not been hit in a LONG time

Not too worried about rain from this one. But wind, not sure if Trinidad homes are constructed as well as those on Barnados because they seldom experience tropical storms and hurricanes

[msbee]

If it organizes in time, would that technically be considered a landfall/direct hit for Trinidad? Pretty cool!

Not cool at all! the island are very vulnerable to any storm.. high winds and flooding can cause a lot of damage. so not cool for T&T at all

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Have not seen ascat but i tend to think this system is closed off.
Just needs to get upper-level outflow in order to intensify.

[Hurricaneman]

If it organizes in time, would that technically be considered a landfall/direct hit for Trinidad? Pretty cool!

Not cool at all! the island are very vulnerable to any storm.. high winds and flooding can cause a lot of damage. so not cool for T&T at all

I think the poster was saying it's cool for historical reasons but I think the poster needed to clarify it better since it came off wrong but my thoughts are with Trinidad and Tobago

[hurricanes1234]

We're now under a tropical storm warning!!

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* Trinidad
* Tobago
* Grenada

[NDG]

So when was the last time you were under a TS Warning during the middle of June?

[hurricanes1234]

If it organizes in time, would that technically be considered a landfall/direct hit for Trinidad? Pretty cool!

Not cool at all! the island are very vulnerable to any storm.. high winds and flooding can cause a lot of damage. so not cool for T&T at all

I think the poster was saying it's cool for historical reasons but I think the poster needed to clarify it better since it came off wrong but my thoughts are with Trinidad and Tobago

Yes, I'm from Trinidad and the island floods very fast. I remember in 2012 I experienced the worst flooding ever, when outside my house contained mud that was knee-deep. We were stranded for four days. And the system which caused that wasn't even classified, it was the outermost bands of the open wave left behind by Tropical Depression Seven (which eventually became Tropical Storm Helene).

Right now, unfortunately many of my colleagues seem to be unperturbed by the developing system. The thing is, the island is so unaccustomed to storms and landfalls that many here tend to ignore the tropics entirely. In addition to this, the drainage systems overload very easily, particularly around the capital, in times of inclement weather. One is only left to hope that this one, which has the potential to be a combination of wind and heavy rain for us, does not cause damage or loss of life.

[hurricanes1234]

:uarrow: So when was the last time you were under a TS Warning during the middle of June?

Never in my recollection.

In fact, when's the last time we were ever under a tropical storm warning ...

[1900hurricane]

I'm completely sold that this is a tropical cyclone right now.

[CourierPR]

Maybe the farthest east and earliest hurricane ?

Should the qualifier "in the satellite era" be added?

[Hammy]

Convective pattern tells me the shear has begun, and if this doesn't close off in the next few hours it probably isn't going to.

[RL3AO]

It's been brought up in the past few days. This is probably the best comparison. Hurricane Two in June 1933.

[Bocadude85]

Convective pattern tells me the shear has begun, and if this doesn't close off in the next few hours it probably isn't going to.

I'd be willing to bet this is already closed off. The convective pattern to me looks like that of a developing tropical storm..I'm not sure what you are looking at.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm completely sold that this is a tropical cyclone right now.

almost certainly. convection moving north on the east side and convection moving south on the west side in that convection that developed earlier. Does not prove it 100 percent but to maintain the type of convective pattern you have to have surface convergence ( among other things) with inflow from all quads.

[Aric Dunn]

Convective pattern tells me the shear has begun, and if this doesn't close off in the next few hours it probably isn't going to.

I'd be willing to bet this is already closed off. The convective pattern to me looks like that of a developing tropical storm..I'm not sure what you are looking at.

Thats not shear yet. the upper level flow right now is evacuating the crap out of this thing.. once that surface circ becomes more established would not doubt a rapid run at hurricane tomorrow evening before the islands. or it all just dies lol

[Hypercane_Kyle]

It's been brought up in the past few days. This is probably the best comparison. Hurricane Two in June 1933.

What about TS Bret in '93? Wasn't in June but the path and name certainly are very reminiscent...

[Hammy]

Convective pattern tells me the shear has begun, and if this doesn't close off in the next few hours it probably isn't going to.

I'd be willing to bet this is already closed off. The convective pattern to me looks like that of a developing tropical storm..I'm not sure what you are looking at.

Thats not shear yet. the upper level flow right now is evacuating the crap out of this thing.. once that surface circ becomes more established would not doubt a rapid run at hurricane tomorrow evening before the islands. or it all just dies lol

Any circulation is likely near the circled area, so this is looking a bit more lopsided than earlier. It's still more likely than not that this develops than doesn't (I'm more confident in this than 93L developing at least) but the window is rapidly closing, and likely faster than forecast.

[Aric Dunn]

I'd be willing to bet this is already closed off. The convective pattern to me looks like that of a developing tropical storm..I'm not sure what you are looking at.

Thats not shear yet. the upper level flow right now is evacuating the crap out of this thing.. once that surface circ becomes more established would not doubt a rapid run at hurricane tomorrow evening before the islands. or it all just dies lol

Any circulation is likely near the circled area, so this is looking a bit more lopsided than earlier. It's still more likely than not that this develops than doesn't (I'm more confident in this than 93L developing at least) but the window is rapidly closing, and likely faster than forecast.

Thats exactly where its close to.. though the vertical stacking is probably a little lagging behind that convective pattern is pretty telling..

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track up to 35kts.

As of 00:00 UTC Jun 19, 2017:

Location: 7.7°N 51.4°W
Maximum Winds: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 50 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A