ATL: TEN - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

12Z Ukmet. Big shift SW from 00z now over Cuba. It would be much stronger if not for land interaction. I think the ridge will keep this one from recurve.

Windshield wiper effect...I would guess that if 92L is stronger when it approaches Puerto Rico then it may go more poleward. I would expect the models to shift back north and south some until it locks in on a medium. My current best guess on track would be Southern tip of FL. Strength on the other hand is anyone's guess.

[Bocadude85]

For what it's worth the 18Z NAM is stronger and a little farther south.

[SouthFLTropics]

18z GFS INITIALIZED

[Blown Away]

For what it's worth the 18Z NAM is stronger and a little farther south.

Can you post a link. Thanks...

[Bocadude85]

For what it's worth the 18Z NAM is stronger and a little farther south.

Can you post a link. Thanks...

Here you go
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=watl&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2017081618&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=0

[Bocadude85]

18Z GFS through 84hrs is a touch farther north and slightly stronger.

[SouthFLTropics]

18z GFS better pull up or it's going to crash and burn into Cuba.

[SouthFLTropics]

Here's why 92L can't gain any latitude...Getting squashed!!!

[Bocadude85]

18z GFS better pull up or it's going to crash and burn into Cuba.

Look at the ridge that the GFS is forecasting..no way this misses Cuba

[SouthFLTropics]

At this rate it may dive through the Windward Passage and go below Cuba.

[Bocadude85]

If 92L ends up farther north like the Euro is showing then conditions look pretty good in the Bahamas according to the 18z GFS....

[Blown Away]

18z GFS says nada for 92L and future 93L and 91L barely makes it maybe to TD/TS just before CA... So much for things heating up...

[Bocadude85]

18z GFS says nada for 92L and future 93L and 91L barely makes it maybe to TD/TS just before CA... So much for things heating up...

Yea the GFS didn't show any development with Gert either.

[AutoPenalti]

At this rate it may dive through the Windward Passage and go below Cuba.

Wow that ridge

[Emmett_Brown]

36 hours before Gert was a hurricane, GFS showed an open wave, so hard to say what intensity 92L will be going by the GFS. The interesting thing about this GFS run is the strength of the ridge... stronger than both the 12z CMC and Euro ridges.

[SouthFLTropics]

I don't know what to make of this new GFS. It's hard to have much faith in it or give it much weight. Looking 144 hours it looks like 92L has almost stalled over eastern Cuba and is getting ready to turn North.

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS shows no love for 92L or 93L...Either conditions are really that extremely hostile or this new GFS is bunk. Based on our experience with Gert I'm leaning toward with the GFS. I can't imagine conditions being this bad in mid August.

[Hurricaneman]

GFS shows no love for 92L or 93L...Either conditions are really that extremely hostile or this new GFS is bunk. Based on our experience with Gert I'm leaning toward with the GFS. I can't imagine conditions being this bad in mid August.

It's not the conditions that kill this, it's Hispaniola and Cuba

[northjaxpro]

I will say this. Do not put your complete faith in the GFS. Proceed with needed caution hugging that model in particular!

[AutoPenalti]

At this point I'm leaning towards what's in front of me, GFS has had MAJOR issues recently. I'm not sure what's going on with the upgrades but this is just a completely disturbing trend of busts.