ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 94, 2017070400, , BEST, 0, 88N, 332W, 25, 1011, LO

There were changes to the 00z Best Track.

AL, 94, 2017070400, , BEST, 0, 90N, 334W, 30, 1010, LO

[Aric Dunn]

last couple hours.. convection has really expanded and deepened over the low to mid level center if that maintains for the next 12 to 24 hours we will have a TD/TS

[Aric Dunn]

you all also have to remember that the models are showing a decent jog to the north north west as the circ interacts with a surge/wave to its east and the ITCZ. if it does to rotate around and begins a more wnw track from current position then a more southerly track is likely.

[Gustywind]

last couple hours.. convection has really expanded and deepened over the low to mid level center if that maintains for the next 12 to 24 hours we will have a TD/TS

ok thanks...but already ? What are you best thoughts about the path especially for those who lived in the Leewards like me and the Northern Leewards even PR?
REGARDS.
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 040005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 15N34W to 05N34W, moving west at about 5 kt within the last
24 hours. A broad 1011 mb surface low is detached from the wave,
and is best satellite estimated position is near 09N33W based on
low-level cloud motion and on Ascat data. The atmospheric
conditions are similar to the wave east of it already described
above. Scattered showers are from 05N to 11N between 30W and 40W.

[FLpanhandle91]

GFS seems to be consistent with the dominant Bermuda high absolutely tearing the weak vertical presence of 94L apart. What do the pro METS think? July seems to favor the presence of strong high pressure in the mid-atlantic this time of year.

[Hammy]

This seems like it's going for a monsoonal sort of development, similar to Pacific systems, rather than how most easterly waves form. Certainly doesn't seem to be moving much at the moment.

[wxman57]

...What are you best thoughts about the path especially for those who lived in the Leewards like me and the Northern Leewards even PR?
REGARDS.
Gustywind

I'd say that you should be prepared in case a tropical storm impacts the NE Caribbean next Sat/Sun. I'm thinking about a 100% chance of development. Fair chance it may graze the NE Caribbean islands. No indication of a strong TS or Hurricane at this time.

[Ntxw]

This seems like it's going for a monsoonal sort of development, similar to Pacific systems, rather than how most easterly waves form. Certainly doesn't seem to be moving much at the moment.

1900hurricane mentioned that this morning and it does resemble such an event. Similar to what is happening over in the EPAC (94E) and often in the WPAC. Development can be slow and sloppy if they do occur. This happens more often in the Western Carib than this part of the Atlantic. Perhaps the very robust westerlies burst a key player, similar to WWBs in the Pacific.

[Alyono]

SHIPS has very little shear with this

[cycloneye]

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL942017 07/04/17 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 42 51 55 60 65 66 68 70 67
V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 42 51 55 60 65 66 68 70 67
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 41 45 48 51 54 57 59 59
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 16 20 24 23 20 14 3 11 6 5 7 7 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -7 -6 -7 -1 5 1 1 8 4 11 11
SHEAR DIR 50 42 43 48 44 25 323 313 304 272 186 279 272
SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.0 25.8 26.3 27.0 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6
POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 129 128 129 127 116 121 128 130 130 130 130
ADJ. POT. INT. 125 124 123 123 125 129 119 125 129 129 124 120 118
200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -53.9 -54.4 -54.2 -54.7 -54.2 -54.4 -53.9
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 9
700-500 MB RH 71 74 75 80 80 76 68 59 57 56 55 54 57
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 14 14 17 16 16 16 15 15 15 13
850 MB ENV VOR 41 32 28 21 9 0 -7 6 27 24 24 2 -19
200 MB DIV 62 75 84 85 80 28 36 21 25 44 29 41 48
700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -3 -6 -12 7 11 4 8 1 2 8
LAND (KM) 1845 1875 1902 1914 1920 1875 1746 1604 1454 1252 1033 907 807
LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.7 11.4 14.0 16.2 17.3 17.7 17.9 18.3 19.3
LONG(DEG W) 33.4 33.7 34.0 34.2 34.4 35.8 38.9 43.3 47.8 51.8 54.8 57.1 58.1
STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 6 16 22 24 21 17 12 9 6
HEAT CONTENT 15 17 19 19 20 19 2 8 15 14 35 19 29

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 25. 26.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 21. 25. 30. 35. 36. 38. 40. 37.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.0 33.4

** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942017 INVEST 07/04/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.35 0.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.12 0.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.30 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.4
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.59 1.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.51 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 42.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.89 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 6.0%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 12.6% 9.4% 5.7% 4.6% 9.5% 10.8% 16.4%
Logistic: 3.0% 12.3% 5.2% 1.3% 0.3% 4.4% 5.8% 10.8%
Bayesian: 1.1% 9.5% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 1.5% 1.1% 0.8%
Consensus: 2.8% 11.4% 5.3% 2.4% 1.6% 5.1% 5.9% 9.4%

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942017 INVEST 07/04/2017 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 40 42 51 55 60 65 66 68 70 67
18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 38 47 51 56 61 62 64 66 63
12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 32 41 45 50 55 56 58 60 57
6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 31 35 40 45 46 48 50 47
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR

[AubreyStorm]

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL942017 07/04/17 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 42 51 55 60 65 66 68 70 67
V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 42 51 55 60 65 66 68 70 67
V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 41 45 48 51 54 57 59 59
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 16 20 24 23 20 14 3 11 6 5 7 7 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -7 -6 -7 -1 5 1 1 8 4 11 11
SHEAR DIR 50 42 43 48 44 25 323 313 304 272 186 279 272
SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.0 25.8 26.3 27.0 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6
POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 129 128 129 127 116 121 128 130 130 130 130
ADJ. POT. INT. 125 124 123 123 125 129 119 125 129 129 124 120 118
200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -53.9 -54.4 -54.2 -54.7 -54.2 -54.4 -53.9
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 9
700-500 MB RH 71 74 75 80 80 76 68 59 57 56 55 54 57
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 14 14 17 16 16 16 15 15 15 13
850 MB ENV VOR 41 32 28 21 9 0 -7 6 27 24 24 2 -19
200 MB DIV 62 75 84 85 80 28 36 21 25 44 29 41 48
700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -3 -6 -12 7 11 4 8 1 2 8
LAND (KM) 1845 1875 1902 1914 1920 1875 1746 1604 1454 1252 1033 907 807
LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.7 11.4 14.0 16.2 17.3 17.7 17.9 18.3 19.3
LONG(DEG W) 33.4 33.7 34.0 34.2 34.4 35.8 38.9 43.3 47.8 51.8 54.8 57.1 58.1
STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 6 16 22 24 21 17 12 9 6
HEAT CONTENT 15 17 19 19 20 19 2 8 15 14 35 19 29

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 25. 26.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 21. 25. 30. 35. 36. 38. 40. 37.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.0 33.4

** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942017 INVEST 07/04/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.35 0.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.12 0.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.30 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.4
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.59 1.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.51 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 42.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.89 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 6.0%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 12.6% 9.4% 5.7% 4.6% 9.5% 10.8% 16.4%
Logistic: 3.0% 12.3% 5.2% 1.3% 0.3% 4.4% 5.8% 10.8%
Bayesian: 1.1% 9.5% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 1.5% 1.1% 0.8%
Consensus: 2.8% 11.4% 5.3% 2.4% 1.6% 5.1% 5.9% 9.4%

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942017 INVEST 07/04/2017 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 40 42 51 55 60 65 66 68 70 67
18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 38 47 51 56 61 62 64 66 63
12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 32 41 45 50 55 56 58 60 57
6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 31 35 40 45 46 48 50 47
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR

OMG!

[AutoPenalti]

What is so omg about it? Am I missing something?

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, even on ASCAT, it looks more like a WPac monsoon trough type disturbance, with northerlies on the west side actually being the weakest aspect of the circulation.

[Hurricaneman]

Yeah, even on ASCAT, it looks more like a WPac monsoon trough type disturbance, with northerlies on the west side actually being the weakest aspect of the circulation.

The circulation is definitely closed looking at the current ASCAT pass

[Yellow Evan]

No west wind though.

[Alyono]

:uarrow: No west wind though.

you mean no northwest wind? Clear westerlies

[Alyono]

0Z MU MUCH weaker through 48 hrs. Actually shows weakening during this time period

of course, it's likely BS as it somehow shifted north and has the center in line with Dominica in 54 hours... all the way to 15N

[Hurricaneman]

0Z MU MUCH weaker through 48 hrs. Actually shows weakening during this time period

of course, it's likely BS as it somehow shifted north and has the center in line with Dominica in 54 hours... all the way to 15N

Looks like a garbage run, when in doubt go with th Euro as it seems to have better pattern recognition