ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

12Z GFS shifting west. I think it will swing toward the EC/UKMET solution.

[Steve]

GFS Parallel brings the system over NOLA 84 hours. That's wed afternoon. CMC at 48 hours is farther south of the LA Coast with heavy rains across SE LA.

[ROCK]

Reminds me of Humberto in 07...took forever until approaching the coast and RIed like crazy.

[Rgv20]

12CMC has landfall Thursday in South Texas Corpus Christi area but it weakens 93L prior to landfall.

[Blinhart]

Reminds me of Humberto in 07...took forever until approaching the coast and RIed like crazy.

exactly my train of thought.

[Ivanhater]

CMC gets sheared off as it approaches the northern gulf coast..low looks to go with the low level flow once sheared off...CMC has the worst weather along the northern gulf coast

[Steve]

It reminds me of TS Bill 2003 if GFS Parallel was right. Rainy spring and then a TS coming up off the Yucatán.

[TheStormExpert]

Reminds me of Humberto in 07...took forever until approaching the coast and RIed like crazy.

exactly my train of thought.

But most models show this weakening prior to making landfall.

[wxman57]

Well, well, models are converging on the westerly track.

[ROCK]

12z NAM is mid TX coast so following the western solution as well..CMC and GFS will come around..)

[Steve]

Well, well, models are converging on the westerly track.

They are as expected. Though I don't see any of them washing this out in the Bay of Campeche or never forming as was what the ECMWF showed most of this week. So that's also important to note for the Euro huggers.

[RL3AO]

Well, well, models are converging on the westerly track.

They are as expected. Though I don't see any of them washing this out in the Bay of Campeche or never forming as was what the ECMWF showed most of this week. So that's also important to note for the Euro huggers.

Shh. The EURO was 110% right about everything. It had everything about the development and track of 93L exactly right.

[ROCK]

I am more of a NAM NAVGEM hugger..::))

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicsWatch/status/876479228929339394

[Steve]

That's true TSE. But don't count on a perpendicular hit on TX from a weakening system. It happens but is rarer. I picked up a couple of cases of water yesterday just to be ahead of the game.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Think the gfs and cmc is much too quick with the notherly movement. Liking the nam and rgem showing a slow steady track nw. Steve, looks like we could be dealing with a lot of rain this upcoming week. If nam is correct will be hanging around for quite a while. It seems every year gfs starts out west, swings wildly east, then gradually moves back west.

[wxman57]

That's true TSE. But don't count on a perpendicular hit on TX from a weakening system. It happens but is rarer. I picked up a couple of cases of water yesterday just to be ahead of the game.

It should be turning north Wednesday evening as it approaches the TX coast.

[stormreader]

Well, well, models are converging on the westerly track.

They are as expected. Though I don't see any of them washing this out in the Bay of Campeche or never forming as was what the ECMWF showed most of this week. So that's also important to note for the Euro huggers.

I'm not really a lover of the Euro or any model. And last year was not a good year for models. I just thought that without any clear cut troughing to the north of the system that a typical more westerly (according to climo) track was much more likely. Pretty confident the system will be near the Texas coast (perhaps the La-Tex border. If true, I don't think it would be a big victory for the Euro (seemed the most obvious track), but it would give us pause to wonder about the GFS. But we must remember both models had a sub-par year last year.

[Frank2]

Is that a MLC in the current loop? It's a little intimidating...

[tarheelprogrammer]

Is that a MLC in the current loop? It's a little intimidating...

I believe a new center has or will soon form there. It looks vigorous.