ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[SEASON_CANCELED]

973 Mb its getting going. looking good on satelitte.

[CrazyC83]

As an Irma Survivor i wish my friends in the path well. We had weeks to prepare....sadly alot of "Sheared tropical mess" folks came out last week already and alot of folks probably have done zero to prepare and now there is now time.

Even if this was a "sheared mess" the momentum could have produced a hurricane on its own. Tropical forecasting is always tough.

[Aric Dunn]

Luckilly the forward speed has kept the inner core from really establishing itself.. good news..

[tolakram]

12z HWRF near landfall

[tolakram]

12Z GFS having significant issues with Nate.

[txwatcher91]

I see 975.6 extrap pressure on this latest pass. Probably about 978-979.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071649
AF305 0816A NATE HDOB 50 20171007
163900 2716N 08852W 6968 03012 9771 +202 +059 101006 011 029 002 00
163930 2716N 08850W 6972 02999 9756 +215 +040 227008 014 017 001 00
164000 2715N 08848W 6971 03005 9791 +182 +069 213006 010 020 000 00
164030 2715N 08846W 6963 03006 9778 +187 +067 215014 018 020 002 00
164100 2714N 08844W 7002 02968 9807 +162 +075 214013 018 020 001 03
164130 2714N 08842W 6969 02999 9814 +152 +068 203016 018 /// /// 03
164200 2712N 08841W 6964 03010 9825 +147 +076 213008 016 /// /// 03
164230 2711N 08843W 6982 02987 9821 +152 +079 348001 012 /// /// 03
164300 2711N 08845W 6968 03013 9800 +175 +071 216007 010 026 000 00
164330 2712N 08847W 6952 03032 9796 +177 +075 215007 010 022 000 00
164400 2713N 08849W 6982 02994 9792 +182 +074 226006 009 024 001 00
164430 2713N 08851W 6975 03005 9797 +179 +075 264005 008 029 001 00
164500 2714N 08852W 6973 03008 9815 +162 +091 331008 010 025 001 00
164530 2714N 08854W 6965 03026 9810 +173 +078 345014 015 017 001 03
164600 2715N 08856W 6957 03034 9793 +191 +050 356017 019 /// /// 03
164630 2716N 08854W 6961 03026 9785 +196 +050 007011 019 017 001 00
164700 2716N 08852W 6982 02996 9816 +162 +082 196003 006 024 001 00
164730 2716N 08850W 6980 02995 9801 +172 +078 218007 011 024 001 00
164800 2716N 08848W 6958 03019 9774 +197 +056 205017 020 021 001 00
164830 2716N 08846W 6955 03027 9767 +205 +049 227016 020 023 001 00
$$
;

[mrbagyo]

NATE is fully tropical but its moving like an extratropical.
Very fast.

I think the arrival of surge water would be very rapid -though surge height wont reach the level of the 2 infamous canes,

[FLpanhandle91]

Luckilly the forward speed has kept the inner core from really establishing itself.. good news..

If this storm was moving 10mph slower throughout its life, we would be talking about an absolutely devastating situation right now. Not downplaying what could happen still (Nate is a dangerous storm) just putting things into perspective I suppose.

[GCANE]

WISHE is really kicking in now that Nate is over the Loop Current.
4500 CAPE on the east quad.

[Alyono]

pressure appears to be falling rapidly now according to the recon

[Javlin]

My work just called "see ya in the morning" I grinned and said "okay".

[CrazyC83]

WISHE is really kicking in now that Nate is over the Loop Current.
4500 CAPE on the east quad.

It's not over the Loop Current. But a small, fast moving storm can go on momentum alone. Hurricane Juan in 2003 was similar in setup.

[Aric Dunn]

Luckilly the forward speed has kept the inner core from really establishing itself.. good news..

If this storm was moving 10mph slower throughout its life, we would be talking about an absolutely devastating situation right now. Not downplaying what could happen still (Nate is a dangerous storm) just putting things into perspective I suppose.

well if it was moving 10 mph slower its whole life it would be moving towards florida west coast...

[Dave C]

They seemed to fly around in the eye extra time this penetration. lots of mid to upper 970s

[FLpanhandle91]

Luckilly the forward speed has kept the inner core from really establishing itself.. good news..

If this storm was moving 10mph slower throughout its life, we would be talking about an absolutely devastating situation right now. Not downplaying what could happen still (Nate is a dangerous storm) just putting things into perspective I suppose.

well if it was moving 10 mph slower its whole life it would be moving towards florida west coast...

Yep. Trough would Probably pick it up in the middle of the gulf.

[Aric Dunn]

realistically. 100 to 110 would be max given the time left. but if it slows down slightly as the turn starts if could hit 115.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I'd go with 973 mb. A 13 mb drop in one advisory from another

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071658
AF305 0816A NATE HDOB 51 20171007
164900 2716N 08844W 6977 02995 9774 +197 +055 226017 020 023 001 00
164930 2716N 08842W 6964 03017 9812 +161 +067 220016 020 027 001 00
165000 2716N 08840W 6977 02998 9833 +141 +076 170022 026 038 001 00
165030 2716N 08838W 6961 03018 9832 +142 +079 176032 036 050 003 00
165100 2716N 08836W 6970 03008 9836 +139 +093 184040 045 060 004 00
165130 2716N 08834W 6971 03012 9860 +122 +104 184054 062 064 004 00
165200 2716N 08832W 6976 03010 9875 +115 +096 188065 066 064 004 00
165230 2716N 08830W 6963 03036 9887 +114 +094 188068 070 063 004 00
165300 2716N 08828W 6974 03032 9898 +114 +095 184073 073 061 007 00
165330 2715N 08826W 6964 03055 9913 +106 +098 182074 075 060 008 00
165400 2715N 08824W 6970 03050 9918 +105 +099 181073 074 059 006 00
165430 2715N 08822W 6965 03060 9938 +098 +095 183079 082 059 009 03
165500 2715N 08820W 6965 03064 9959 +095 +095 187082 084 063 016 03
165530 2715N 08818W 6971 03057 9957 +095 +095 188083 087 071 018 00
165600 2715N 08816W 6965 03069 9964 +092 +092 188082 085 070 017 03
165630 2715N 08814W 6962 03079 9973 +090 +090 187081 084 069 017 03
165700 2715N 08813W 6967 03077 9973 +087 +084 189077 079 068 012 00
165730 2715N 08811W 6966 03086 9975 +091 +082 189075 080 070 012 00
165800 2715N 08809W 6964 03094 9989 +090 +090 190074 077 069 011 00
165830 2715N 08807W 6973 03086 9995 +085 +082 187065 067 068 012 00
$$
;

87 kt FL, 71 kt SFMR east of the center.

[tolakram]

saved radar loop