ATL: HARVEY - Models

[tailgater]

Sorry for the one liner but do you think the News media will mention this, this evening

[BigB0882]

Ok, that Euro run is not making me feel better. That is probably the worst run so far for SELA.

Anyone have QPFs for that run? Would anyone be kind enough to tell me what is shows for the Baton Rouge area? Like I said, can't see the graphics while at work.

[Pearl River]

I knew I remembered it somewhere. Tropical Storm Erin did strengthen over land.

http://www.gpb.org/news/2013/09/03/why-some-hurricanes-strengthen-over-land

[NDG]

18z early models, about the same as 12z if not a little to the right, except for the crazy Uncle.

[Steve]

Sorry for the one liner but do you think the News media will mention this, this evening

It's already on CNN.com. I haven't gone to any other news sites than local (nola.com which also mentions it). I'm still probably going to wait until tomorrow night to get a couple of cases of water and some junk food. But I'm going to grab a few things early so I don't have to worry about it later.

[Wx_Warrior]

After seeing the 18z spaghetti models....


upload free

[WAcyclone]

The 12z ECMWF run has now updated on some of the publicly available websites. Here are some links:

Maybe most important: Total accumulated precipitation values for Texas and Louisiana

First landfall: 991 mb just north of Brownsville

Second landfall: 968 mb near Lake Charles

[tailgater]

After seeing the 18z spaghetti models....

Steve is that you, get out of there, you are messing the models up.
Big Bob I'll post rainfall predictions if I find some that go that far out but I doubt I will find any. Next Wednesday is the time frame for Harvey passing near us on the Euro model.

[Nimbus]

They still spinning wrenches on those pump gear boxes in Nola?
Even with a miss they could still get 5 plus inches of rain with surge.

[stormreader]

u know UKMET might be on to something!!

Been thinking he same way. But other models say no. Can only wait and see.

[gatorcane]

u know UKMET might be on to something!!

reference? link?

12Z UKMET straight NW into Texas:

[ColdMiser123]

Overwhelming support from Euro Ensembles for the 2nd landfall.

[hohnywx]

Overwhelming support from Euro Ensembles for the 2nd landfall.

Into the same general area (SW LA)?

[ColdMiser123]

Overwhelming support from Euro Ensembles for the 2nd landfall.

Into the same general area (SW LA)?

And into eastern TX. Many sub 980 members.

[hohnywx]

Overwhelming support from Euro Ensembles for the 2nd landfall.

Into the same general area (SW LA)?

And into eastern TX. Many sub 980 members.

Wow...pretty impressive from the ensembles.

[South Texas Storms]

Overwhelming support from Euro Ensembles for the 2nd landfall.

Also good support for the first landfall as well.

[stormreader]

I am so skeptical of the model doomday scenarios. First the inland strengthening, then the 2 landfalls. Hopefully it doesn't happen but regardless people better be prepared for a lot of flooding.

I'm skeptical, too, Tolakram. But you said it all there. No matter what, there's a whole lot of rain and probably some kind of serious storm coming for the western GOM states. At least we have time.

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS is further east into Louisiana, into Saint Mary.

[stormreader]

u know UKMET might be on to something!!

I am just a historian, but I tend to agree

Me Three! Been talking up that UK solution for a couple of days now. No two landfalls---primary landfall Sabine Pass area. But, if I see evidence that the Euro (and others) looks to be correct, I'll be the first to say it. But right now, seems like UK is staying near what I think.

[Hurricaneman]

12z EPS is further east into Louisiana, into Saint Mary.

I wouldn't be surprised if this made a second landfall in Mississippi or even Alabama, some members do that