ATL: HARVEY - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2021 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:03 pm

Huge west shift by Euro.
Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:05 pm, edited 3 times in total.
1 likes   
Top
TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2022 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:03 pm

Even stronger @ 48hrs. when compared to the 00z Euro run, and much further west close to the Texas/Mexico border coastline.

12z Euro @ 48hrs. :darrow:
Image

00z Euro @ 48hrs. :darrow:
Image
1 likes   
Top
hd44

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2023 Postby hd44 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:05 pm

Ukmet and Ecmwf never diverge this much by 48 hours or very rarely. This is very complicated forecast.
1 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20010
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2024 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:06 pm

54H offshore the TX/MX border at 993mb
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2025 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:06 pm

hd44 wrote:Ukmet and Ecmwf never diverge this much by 48 hours or very rarely. This is very complicated forecast.

With how poorly the models have been performing and their inconsistency this season it comes as no surprise to such divergence in the short-term. What a forecasting headache this is turning out to be! :roll:
0 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20010
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2026 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:08 pm

60H near padre Island at 991mb.
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10147
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2027 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:08 pm

Seems modest TS or Cat 1 and rainfall will be the story...
1 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20010
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2028 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:09 pm

Image
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
ScottNAtlanta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2367
Joined: Sat May 25, 2013 3:11 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2029 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:09 pm

So the Euro doesnt seem to be building in the high from the southwest US. Isnt this a known bias of the model in wanting to hold ridging further west in the SW US?
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6684
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2030 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:11 pm

Well the current stall was not predicted so I'm sure that throws a wrench in the model's runs. IMO
1 likes   
Top
Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2031 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:12 pm

given the rate of organization, the UKMET intensity forecast may be the most reasonable
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
mcheer23
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 436
Age: 32
Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2012 8:24 pm
Location: Sugar Land, Texas

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2032 Postby mcheer23 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:14 pm

Alyono wrote:given the rate of organization, the UKMET intensity forecast may be the most reasonable



What do you think about track
0 likes   
Top
TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2033 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:14 pm

Landfall near Corpus Christi, TX @ 72hrs. slightly west when compared to the 00z Euro landfall location and slightly stronger too.

12z Euro @ 72hrs. :darrow:
Image

00z Euro @ 72hrs. :darrow:
Image
1 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20010
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2034 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:15 pm

Image
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2035 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:16 pm

12z Euro @ 96hrs., inland over South-Central Texas @ 997 millibars.

Image
1 likes   
Top
Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2036 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:18 pm

must be showing a perfect upper environment as it is not weakening much at all over land. This also would promote the obscene rainfall amounts
1 likes   
Top
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6684
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2037 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:20 pm

Strengthening storm over Texas does not seem plausible so I'm very skeptical.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
ColdMiser123
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 904
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Sep 26, 2016 3:26 pm
Location: Northeast US

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2038 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:21 pm

Drifting ESE at hour 114. Going to show a reemergence over open waters, like 0z.
0 likes   
B.S., M.S., Meteorology & Atmospheric Science
Top
TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2039 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:21 pm

Back over water and strengthening @ 120hrs. :eek:

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#2040 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:21 pm

12z Euro is pretty close to yesterday's 12z run, just a tad slower. IMO.
1 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests