ATL: JOSE - Models

[AxaltaRacing24]

Damn, Levi has to put up that disclaimer on those ensemble runs...

Goes to show how landfall happy this basin is this season.

[BYG Jacob]

Anyone have the 12z GFS ensembles?

This is the GFS, so take with proper salt.

[txwatcher91]

Anyone have the 12z GFS ensembles?

[img]https://i.imgur.com/LaEYy0E.png[img]

This is the GFS, so take with proper salt.

The problem is the UKMET and its ensembles are even further south and the Euro/CMC shifted west quite a bit today. Euro and CMC keep this well away from FL but have been shifting closer in recent runs while GEFS made a big shift west today. Plenty of time to watch it though and a very complex pattern.

[AutoPenalti]

I guess it's trend time.

I'll start, there's a west trend.

[BYG Jacob]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/LaEYy0E.png[img]

This is the GFS, so take with proper salt.

The problem is the UKMET and its ensembles are even further south and the Euro/CMC shifted west quite a bit today. Euro and CMC keep this well away from FL but have been shifting closer in recent runs while GEFS made a big shift west today. Plenty of time to watch it though and a very complex pattern.

Yes, I mentioned this earlier, but I think this Jose an Irma and models keep shifting west to the point that landfall is inevitable.

[Kingarabian]

I see 2 or 3 EPS members taking it into Florida/SECONUS on the 12z run compared to zero on the 00z run.

[Aric Dunn]

I see 2 or 3 EPS members taking it into Florida/SECONUS on the 12z run compared to zero on the 00z run.

Where is yhe image?

[Kingarabian]

I see 2 or 3 EPS members taking it into Florida/SECONUS on the 12z run compared to zero on the 00z run.

Where is yhe image?

Sorry Aric it's a weatherbell image, I don't know think I'm allowed to post it. I'll see if forecasterJack's website has an image.

[nasalangley]

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS:



00z EPS:

[AutoPenalti]

That left turn at the end of run

[Alyono]

seems like this is another case where a stronger system moves more to the west, similar to Irma. The westward models are the ones with an intense hurricane.

[Kingarabian]

seems like this is another case where a stronger system moves more to the west, similar to Irma. The westward models are the ones with an intense hurricane.

The ensembles bringing it over SECONUS are pretty strong. But there are some strong ensembles recurving it as well.

[cajungal]

That left turn at the end of run

That blue line looks like a weird track over the Florida panhandle hugging the Louisiana coastline to Texas.

[BYG Jacob]

12z EPS:



00z EPS:

A significant shift west, @##$

[BYG Jacob]

seems like this is another case where a stronger system moves more to the west, similar to Irma. The westward models are the ones with an intense hurricane.

The ensembles bringing it over SECONUS are pretty strong. But there are some strong ensembles recurving it as well.

Well yeah, conditions are much more favorable if Jose takes a more southerly track.

[jabman98]

That blue line looks like a weird track over the Florida panhandle hugging the Louisiana coastline to Texas.

No. Just no. No way Jose.

[TheStormExpert]

Not every model shifted west @12z, today's 12z JMA shifted east.

[ColdMiser123]

According to the ensemble spread from the 12z EPS, it gives about a 20-25% chance this impacts the United States directly.

[Weather150]

Let's wait until mid-week to get a better idea like Wed-Thurs when Jose is midway through the loop, by then we will have a better idea of where it will head. Right now is not a reasonable time to really know.