CPAC: FERNANDA - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Models don't intensify it more than it already is.

Euro initializes Fernanda at 999mb lol.

[Ntxw]

[1900hurricane]

TXPZ29 KNES 141819
TCSENP

A. 06E (FERNANDA)

B. 14/1800Z

C. 10.7N

D. 119.3W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS EMBEDDED IN LG AND SURROUNDED BY B RESULTING IN
A DT OF 5.5 AFTER 0.5 IS ADDED AS AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. MAX DT OF 6.0 WAS
MEASURED LEADING UP TO 1800Z. MET AND PT ARE ALSO 5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[Kingarabian]

T6.0?

[1900hurricane]

Up to 110 kt for 18Z.

06E FERNANDA 170714 1800 10.7N 119.3W EPAC 110 960

[Kingarabian]

Up to 110 kt for 18Z.

06E FERNANDA 170714 1800 10.7N 119.3W EPAC 110 960

Above every models intensity forecast from the 12z suite.

[RL3AO]

Looks like a typical EPac hurricane that will top out at 125 to 135 knots. NHC is pretty conservative going 140kt on satellite without strong support.

[Kingarabian]

AMSU has 115kts.

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
HURRICANE FERNANDA
Friday 14jul17 Time: 1733 UTC
Latitude: 10.71 Longitude: -119.22
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 15 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 952 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 115 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 9mb +/- 10kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------

[Yellow Evan]

Needs to thicken big time if this wants to get beyond 115 knots. And only a matter of time till ERC.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 JUL 2017 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 10:42:12 N Lon : 119:19:22 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 953.3mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.9 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +7.8C Cloud Region Temp : -64.0C

Scene Type : EYE

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 JUL 2017 Time : 184537 UTC
Lat : 10:48:09 N Lon : 119:27:52 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 954.9mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.1 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +9.2C Cloud Region Temp : -66.5C

Scene Type : EYE

[Kingarabian]

Needs to thicken big time if this wants to get beyond 115 knots. And only a matter of time till ERC.

Did you just turn 19? Happy birthday if so.

I think best bet it goes through an ERC now and restart. This consitricted core it has and the small eye is not doing it any favors. It has around another 36-48 over ideal conditions.

[Yellow Evan]

Thickening.

[Kingarabian]

The NHC should go with 115kts @ the next advisory.

[Steve820]

Fernanda is looking really good with a well-defined eye. It might get up to a strong C4 before the weakening process begins by early next week. I wouldn't hold my breath for a Category 5 because the NHC mentions in the discussion that their forecast is well above the model guidance. It could probably still occur though, if Fernanda tries its hardest and doesn't go into an eyewall replacement cycle or anything.

[Ntxw]

Fernanda is looking really good with a well-defined eye. It might get up to a strong C4 before the weakening process begins by early next week. I wouldn't hold my breath for a Category 5 because the NHC mentions in the discussion that their forecast is well above the model guidance. It could probably still occur though, if Fernanda tries its hardest and doesn't go into an eyewall replacement cycle or anything.

RL3AO is right they will probably go 120-135kts. Any higher would likely need a solid CMG for a good time given the conservative nature.

[Yellow Evan]

Did you just turn 19? Happy birthday if so.

Thanks, I just did yesterday.

[Yellow Evan]

Fernanda is looking really good with a well-defined eye. It might get up to a strong C4 before the weakening process begins by early next week. I wouldn't hold my breath for a Category 5 because the NHC mentions in the discussion that their forecast is well above the model guidance. It could probably still occur though, if Fernanda tries its hardest and doesn't go into an eyewall replacement cycle or anything.

RL3AO is right they will probably go 120-135kts. Any higher would likely need a solid CMG for a good time given the conservative nature.

You can have a T7.0 with a W ring, just needs to be really thick. Like Marie 14 level thickness.

[Yellow Evan]

Regular ADT

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 JUL 2017 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 10:44:37 N Lon : 119:31:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 953.3mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.9 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +11.7C Cloud Region Temp : -64.3C

Scene Type : EYE

GOES-16 ADT

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 JUL 2017 Time : 194537 UTC
Lat : 10:44:38 N Lon : 119:34:07 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 954.9mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +14.9C Cloud Region Temp : -66.4C

Scene Type : EYE

[Alyono]

ewrc likely in 6 to 12 hours

[Kingarabian]

GOES16: